Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism (EA) against recent criticisms, highlighting its accomplishments in global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and other areas. He argues that EA has saved around 200,000 lives, equivalent to ending gun violence, curing AIDS, and preventing a 9/11-scale attack in the US. Scott contends that EA's achievements are often overlooked because they focus on less publicized causes, and that the movement's occasional missteps are minor compared to its positive impact. He emphasizes that EA is a coalition of people who care about logically analyzing important causes, whether broadly popular or not, and encourages readers to investigate and support the most beneficial causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links on topics including politics, science, technology, and culture, providing brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 57 diverse links covering various topics including politics, science, technology, culture, and society. Scott Alexander briefly summarizes each link, often adding his own commentary or thoughts. The links range from scientific studies and political polls to interesting cultural phenomena and technological advancements. Some notable topics include AI development, environmental issues, mental health, and social trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines for Open Philanthropy, which uses biological anchors to estimate when transformative AI might arrive, and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique of this methodology. The post explains Cotra's approach, Yudkowsky's objections, and various responses, ultimately concluding that while the report may not significantly change existing beliefs, the debate highlights important considerations in AI forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and challenges in running a microgrants program, offering insights and advice for others considering similar initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience running a microgrants program, detailing the challenges and complexities involved. He discusses the difficulty of evaluating grant proposals, relying on expert advisors, dealing with applicants' poor grant-writing skills, and navigating the moral dilemmas of effective altruism. Scott concludes by questioning whether running such a program is worthwhile for most people, suggesting alternatives like donating to established charities, and proposing a new impact certificate-based system for future grant-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Glen Weyl's anti-technocracy essay, arguing for a more nuanced view of formal mechanisms in decision-making and defending rationalist approaches. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Glen Weyl's essay 'Why I Am Not A Technocrat', arguing that Weyl's definition of technocracy is incoherent and his examples don't fit his own definition. Scott breaks down the concept of technocracy into several axes, including top-down vs. bottom-up, mechanism vs. judgment, and expert vs. popular opinion. He argues that formal mechanisms can be valuable in preventing bias and corruption, using examples like district creation and college admissions. Scott also defends the rationalist and effective altruism communities against Weyl's criticisms, highlighting their successes in areas like pandemic preparedness. He concludes that while critiques of technocracy are important, it's crucial to avoid oversimplifying the issue and to recognize that sometimes technocratic approaches can be beneficial. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander offers a guide for lazy people to donate to effective charities, ranging from easy options like EA Funds to more specific recommendations in various cause areas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a guide for people who want to donate to effective charities but are very lazy. He suggests donating to EA Funds as the easiest option, which allows experts to allocate funds to the best charities. For those with slightly more energy, he recommends checking charity-evaluating organizations like GiveWell, Animal Charity Evaluators, and others. He also mentions specific charities in areas like AI safety, climate change, and election science. For the truly skeptical, he suggests GiveDirectly, which gives money directly to poor people in Africa. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on billionaire philanthropy, addressing criticisms while ultimately defending its net positive impact and arguing to protect the most effective charitable efforts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about billionaire philanthropy. He addresses criticisms and counterarguments, providing further analysis on topics like the scale of billionaire donations compared to political spending, the democratic nature of philanthropy, tax deductibility, and potential downsides. While acknowledging some valid concerns, Scott ultimately defends the net positive impact of billionaire philanthropy, especially highlighting examples like the Gates Foundation's global health work. He argues that even if some billionaire philanthropy is problematic, the most effective charitable efforts are so valuable that they should be protected and encouraged. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his voting choices for California elections and ballot measures, offering brief explanations and occasional humor for each decision. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his preliminary choices for California elected positions and ballot initiatives. He provides brief justifications for his votes on various positions including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Controller, and others. He also analyzes several propositions on the ballot, explaining the issues and his reasoning for each vote. The post is a mix of serious policy analysis and humorous commentary on California politics. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander attends the Effective Altruism Global 2017 conference, describing both the practical charity work and bizarre philosophical speculations of the movement, ultimately admiring their genuine commitment to doing good. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his experience at the Effective Altruism Global 2017 conference in San Francisco. He details the impressive scale of charitable work being done by various EA organizations, but also highlights the more unusual and philosophical aspects of the movement. These range from concerns about wild animal suffering to speculations about consciousness and fundamental physics. Scott reflects on how the EA movement combines practical, data-driven charity work with deeply weird philosophical explorations. He concludes by expressing admiration for the genuine goodness and dedication of the EA community, seeing them as a bright spot in a troubled world. Shorter summary

A links post featuring stories about AI research, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, ranging from antibacterials in soap to disco riots at baseball games. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and studies. It covers topics ranging from AI research (including MIRI's new paper on Logical Induction and UC Berkeley's new AI safety center), scientific findings (about school entry age and journal quality), historical oddities (like Disco Demolition Night and pay toilets), and current events (like the kratom ban and Seattle's microhousing). The post demonstrates Scott's typical mix of academic research, policy analysis, and interesting historical anecdotes, all tied together with his characteristic dry humor. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary