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study critique (270)
book review (221)
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effective altruism (105)
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4 posts
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forecasting (89) AI safety (79) cognitive bias (59) risk assessment (15) Ukraine-Russia war (4) probability theory (2) Biden (2) Putin (2)

Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument

Scott Alexander explains why dismissing warnings just because previous similar warnings were wrong is a dangerous fallacy, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time.

acx
Nov 22, 2024 2,033 words 397 likes 499 comments Listen · 12 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) US politics (32) AI development (23) Mantic Monday (22) Elon Musk (12) Ukraine-Russia war (4)

Mantic Monday 6/13/22

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.

acx
Jun 13, 2022 1,909 words 50 likes 147 comments Listen · 17 min Read Read
prediction markets (88) Mantic Monday (22) abortion (11) Xi Jinping (4) market manipulation (4) Ukraine-Russia war (4) anti-aging (2)

Mantic Monday 5/9/22

Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics.

acx
May 10, 2022 3,105 words 68 likes 242 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) current events (28) Mantic Monday (22) AI progress (15) Elon Musk (12) Ukraine-Russia war (4) nuclear risk (4)

Mantic Monday 4/18/22

Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.

acx
Apr 18, 2022 2,264 words 45 likes 458 comments Listen · 21 min Read Read
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