The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming an illusion of moral decline, pointing out methodological flaws and suggesting alternative explanations for the perception of declining morality.

Scott Alexander examines how Trump's presidency has unexpectedly decreased support for his own policies, analyzing polls and proposing several explanations for this counterintuitive trend.

Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is.

Scott shares various interesting news items and studies spanning history, science, politics, and technology, with commentary on each item's significance or irony.

Scott Alexander debunks the idea that Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, revealing that Bernie Sanders actually has much whiter support, and uses this to challenge common narratives about race and politics.

The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time.

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Lizardman's Constant' and its implications for interpreting poll results, especially those concerning unpopular beliefs.