The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI-powered forecasting and prediction markets. It covers two academic teams' work on AI forecasting systems, comparing their performance to human forecasters. The post then discusses the potential for developing 'rationality engines' that can answer non-forecasting questions. It also reviews a study on superforecasters' predictions about AI risk, and provides updates on various prediction markets including political events, cryptocurrency, and global conflicts. The post concludes with short links to related articles and developments in the field of forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the design and effectiveness of play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus and Manifold. He explores the trade-offs between absolute and relative accuracy, zero-sum and positive-sum scoring, and the challenges these systems face. Scott points out that reputation systems often fail to provide actual reputation benefits, and play money systems struggle with market inefficiencies due to limited incentives. He suggests potential improvements, such as offering interest-free loans for specific markets, to address these issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary

Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets. Scott reviews a YouTube explainer on prediction markets, introduces a new market called Futuur, discusses the innovative approach of Mantic Markets, highlights Metaculus' Public Figure Predictions feature, and provides updates on current market predictions for various events. He also shares some short notes on foot voting coordination efforts, a suggestion for using prediction markets in college debates, and Google's new prediction market team. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions. Shorter summary