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The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets.
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements.
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives.
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics.
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields.