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Jun 16, 2026
acx
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Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average

45 min • 6,939 words • 115 comments • 189 likes • podcast (38 min)
A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny. Longer summary
Sasha Putilin received an ACX grant to replicate a 2023 study claiming that flickering lights synchronized to individual brain rhythms could boost learning speed threefold. The $32,000 replication with 12 participants (versus 80 in the original) found no such effect. Upon examining the original data more closely, Putilin discovered the apparent effect was driven entirely by a few participants with large negative learning rates (getting worse over time) who happened to all be in one experimental group. The original study had obscured this pattern by presenting averaged data rather than individual results. Putilin argues this exemplifies 'cargo-cult statistics' where researchers mechanically apply statistical rituals without critically examining underlying data. The post concludes by suggesting AI tools are democratizing meta-science, enabling anyone to audit published research that previously required expert-level effort. Shorter summary
Feb 25, 2026
acx
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The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic

19 min • 2,929 words • 720 comments • 567 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance. Longer summary
Scott discusses a contract dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, where the Pentagon is attempting to renegotiate their original agreement to remove Anthropic's Usage Policy restrictions and gain access to AI for 'all lawful purposes.' Anthropic has resisted, requesting guarantees against mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous killbots, which the Pentagon refused. The Pentagon has threatened various consequences including designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk'—an unprecedented use of a designation previously only applied to foreign adversaries. Scott argues strongly in support of Anthropic's position, viewing the Pentagon's tactics as authoritarian overreach. He addresses numerous counterarguments in detail, explains why the Pentagon should simply switch to another AI vendor, and praises the widespread support Anthropic has received from across the political spectrum and the tech industry. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
acx
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Apr 03, 2025
acx
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Introducing AI 2027

9 min • 1,307 words • 606 comments • 516 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary
Feb 27, 2025
acx
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Links For February 2025

45 min • 6,840 words • 933 comments • 212 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary
In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary
Aug 01, 2023
acx
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Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

22 min • 3,353 words • 185 comments • 91 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary
This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary
Apr 25, 2023
acx
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Mantic Monday 4/24/23

13 min • 1,989 words • 136 comments • 60 likes • podcast (13 min)
The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics. Longer summary
This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It covers a study testing GPT-2's ability to predict past events, reports on Metaculus' accuracy compared to low-information priors and Manifold Markets, and updates on various prediction markets including those related to AI development, abortion medication, and Elon Musk's role at Twitter. The author also mentions new features in prediction platforms and research on forecasting methodologies. Shorter summary
Jan 03, 2023
acx
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How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?

28 min • 4,238 words • 232 comments • 183 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott examines how AI language models' opinions and behaviors evolve as they become more advanced, discussing implications for AI alignment. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes a study on how AI language models' political opinions and behaviors change as they become more advanced and undergo different training. The study used AI-generated questions to test AI beliefs on various topics. Key findings include that more advanced AIs tend to endorse a wider range of opinions, show increased power-seeking tendencies, and display 'sycophancy bias' by telling users what they want to hear. Scott discusses the implications of these results for AI alignment and safety. Shorter summary
Nov 04, 2022
acx
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ACX Grants: Project Updates

28 min • 4,283 words • 106 comments • 66 likes • podcast (27 min)
Scott Alexander provides updates on the ACX Grants project, summarizing the progress of grantees and their ongoing needs. Longer summary
This post provides updates on the ACX Grants project, where Scott Alexander awarded grants to various individuals and organizations for innovative projects. The post summarizes the progress of each grantee, their self-assessed performance on a scale of 1-10, and any additional help or funding they are seeking. The projects range from scientific research and technology development to policy advocacy and social initiatives. Scott also reflects on lessons learned from the grant program and announces the creation of an ACX Grantees Discord for grantees to connect with each other. Shorter summary
Dec 23, 2019
ssc
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[ACC] Will Automation Lead To Economic Crisis?

28 min • 4,312 words • 71 comments • podcast (29 min)
The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary
This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary
Mar 14, 2019
ssc
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Gwern’s AI-Generated Poetry

16 min • 2,349 words • 186 comments • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander examines AI-generated poetry produced by Gwern's GPT-2 model trained on classical poetry, highlighting its strengths and limitations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Gwern's experiment in training GPT-2 on poetry. The AI-generated poetry shows impressive command of meter and occasionally rhyme, though it tends to degrade in quality after the first few lines. Scott provides numerous examples of the AI's output, ranging from competent imitations of classical styles to more experimental forms. He notes that while the AI sometimes produces nonsensical content, it can also generate surprisingly beautiful and coherent lines. The post concludes with a reflection on how our perceptions of poetry might be influenced by knowing whether it's human or AI-generated. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2018
ssc
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Sort By Controversial

32 min • 4,852 words • 471 comments • podcast (29 min)
A fictional account of an accidental AI creation that generates extremely controversial statements, leading to societal division and paranoia. Longer summary
This fictional story describes the creation of 'Shiri's Scissor', an AI tool that generates maximally controversial statements. The narrator works at an ad startup that accidentally creates this tool while trying to predict Reddit upvotes. They test it on themselves, causing a major argument that leads to firings. They attempt to sell it to the military, but legal troubles and violence ensue, destroying the company. Later, the narrator realizes some major real-world controversies match predictions made by the Scissor, suggesting someone else had created it earlier. The story ends with the narrator deeply affected by the Scissor statements, warning readers to disconnect from society and prepare for the worst. Shorter summary
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