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Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events.
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.
Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.