The post explores the Far Out Initiative's goal to eliminate suffering through biotechnology, inspired by a pain-free woman and David Pearce's philosophy. Longer summary

This post discusses the Far Out Initiative, a project aimed at eliminating suffering through biotechnology. It begins by introducing Jo Cameron, a woman genetically incapable of feeling pain or anxiety, and explores the philosophical implications of her condition. The post then delves into David Pearce's suffering abolitionism philosophy and his practical approaches to ending suffering. Finally, it describes the Far Out Initiative's current efforts, led by Marcin Kowrygo, to create suffering-free animals through genetic engineering and potentially extend this to humans in the future. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses predictions about the Omicron variant of COVID-19 using data from prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He examines forecasts on the variant's transmissibility (R0), lethality compared to Delta, and its expected prevalence in the US. The post highlights that Metaculus predicts Omicron to be more transmissible than Delta, with a 34% chance of being deadlier, and likely to become the dominant US variant by mid-March. Scott concludes with a humorous tweet about the rapid emergence of new variants. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why early psychedelic researchers often became eccentric, proposing that psychedelics might permanently increase openness to unusual ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of early psychedelic researchers becoming notably eccentric or 'weird' after their experiments. He presents brief biographies of several prominent researchers, including Timothy Leary, Richard Alpert, John Lilly, and Kary Mullis, highlighting their transition from respected scientists to advocates of unconventional ideas. The post then discusses potential explanations for this trend, including self-selection bias, the impact of psychedelic experiences, and the possibility that psychedelics might directly alter personality traits like Openness to Experience. Scott concludes by suggesting that the early psychedelicists might serve as a natural experiment, providing unique data on the long-term effects of psychedelic use that are difficult to study in controlled settings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming to have found biomarkers for suicide risk, arguing that the results are overstated and such a test would have limited clinical utility even if accurate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming to have found biomarkers predicting suicide risk with 92% accuracy. He points out that most of the predictive power likely comes from clinical instruments rather than biomarkers, and that the biomarkers alone were insignificant in 7 out of 8 tests. Even if the 92% accuracy claim were true, Scott argues it wouldn't be very useful in practice due to the low base rate of suicide attempts. He concludes that while research on biological factors in suicide is valuable, a blood test for suicide is unlikely to ever be clinically useful due to the complex nature of suicide involving both biological and environmental factors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to articles claiming that AI researchers are not concerned about AI risk by providing a list of prominent AI researchers who have expressed concerns about the potential risks of advanced AI. He argues that there isn't a clear divide between 'skeptics' and 'believers', but rather a general consensus that some preliminary work on AI safety is needed. The post highlights that the main differences lie in the timeline for AI development and when preparations should begin, not whether the risks are real. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the complex relationship between contraception and abortion rates, concluding that in societies where contraceptives are already legal, increasing access likely decreases abortion rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the complex relationship between contraception use and abortion rates. He first presents arguments suggesting contraception might increase abortion rates, including the Peltzman effect where safety measures lead to riskier behavior. He then explores evidence that contraception decreases abortion rates, including historical data and controlled studies. Scott concludes that while legalizing contraceptives in a society might initially increase abortion rates as part of a broader cultural shift, in societies where contraceptives are already legal, increasing access likely decreases abortion rates. He especially emphasizes that highly effective contraceptives like implants or RISUG are very likely to reduce abortions when they replace less effective methods. Shorter summary