Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander follows up on his critique of a book about the Baumol effect, presenting data that challenges the book's claims about rising wages driving cost increases in education and healthcare. Longer summary

Scott Alexander follows up on his review of Tabarrok and Helland's book about the Baumol effect and rising costs in education and healthcare. He expresses disappointment with Tabarrok's response to his critique and further explores the issues. Scott presents data showing that wages in high-productivity sectors and for doctors and teachers have not risen as much as claimed, which challenges the book's central thesis. He also clarifies his understanding of how the Baumol effect can make things less affordable for individuals even if not for society as a whole. The post analyzes various data sources and graphs to support these points, maintaining a critical stance towards the original book's arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book attributing rising service costs to the Baumol effect, finding it convincing but raising some concerns about conflicting data and affordability issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Why Are The Prices So D*mn High?' by economists Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland, which attributes rising costs in services like healthcare and education to the Baumol effect. The authors argue that as productivity increases in some sectors, wages rise across all sectors, making labor-intensive services relatively more expensive. Scott finds their case convincing but raises some concerns, including data on stagnant real wages, conflicting information on professional salaries, and the apparent decrease in affordability of services like education, which the Baumol effect shouldn't cause. He seeks further clarification on these points to fully accept the Baumol effect as the primary explanation for cost disease. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence on marijuana legalization's effects on usage, health, and drug war costs, finding uncertainties too large for firm conclusions but suggesting traffic accidents may be the key factor. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence around marijuana legalization, looking at its effects on usage rates, health impacts, and costs of the drug war. He finds that decriminalization and medical marijuana don't seem to increase youth usage much, but full legalization might increase adult use by 25-50%. Health effects are unclear but may include IQ declines and slightly increased psychosis risk. The costs of the drug war are significant in terms of arrests and spending, but relatively few people are in prison solely for marijuana. Scott attempts a utilitarian analysis comparing costs and benefits of legalization, but finds the uncertainties too large to draw firm conclusions. He suggests the most important factor may be how legalization affects traffic accidents. Shorter summary