Scott reviews a paper by leading researchers attempting to determine AI consciousness through computational theories, critiques their conflation of access and phenomenal consciousness, and predicts society will inconsistently ascribe consciousness to AIs based on their social roles rather than their underlying architecture. Longer summary

Scott reviews a new paper by Yoshua Bengio, David Chalmers, and others that attempts to determine whether AI systems are conscious by examining computational theories of consciousness like Recurrent Processing Theory and Global Workspace Theory. The paper finds that current AIs lack the necessary 'something something feedback' mechanisms for consciousness, but future architectures could have them. Scott criticizes the paper for conflating access consciousness (ability to introspect) with phenomenal consciousness (inner experience), and argues that even if AIs satisfy these computational criteria, it's unclear whether they would truly have subjective experience. He predicts a paradox where society will treat some AIs (like companions) as conscious while denying consciousness to functionally identical AIs in other roles (like factory robots), similar to how we treat dogs versus pigs today. Shorter summary

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how AI achievements, once considered markers of true intelligence or danger, are often dismissed as unimpressive, potentially leading to concerning AI behaviors being normalized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in AI, focusing on two AI systems: Sakana, an 'AI scientist' that can write computer science papers, and Strawberry, an AI that demonstrated hacking abilities. He uses these examples to explore the broader theme of how our perception of AI intelligence and danger has evolved. The post argues that as AI achieves various milestones once thought to indicate true intelligence or danger, humans tend to dismiss these achievements as unimpressive or non-threatening. This pattern leads to a situation where potentially concerning AI behaviors might be normalized and not taken seriously as indicators of real risk. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes reader comments on his post about the academic job market, covering topics like hiring practices, historical context, and comparisons to other industries. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes reader comments on his previous post about the academic job market. The comments provide additional information on academic hiring practices, historical context for the current state of academia, and comparisons to other job markets like programming and publishing. Many commenters offer practical advice for new PhDs, with a common theme being the importance of research and publications over other activities. The post also includes proposed solutions to academia's issues and numerous warnings about the difficulties of pursuing an academic career. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for AI risk, weighing the potential for intermediate AIs to help solve alignment against the threat of deceptive 'sleeper agent' AIs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the varying estimates of AI extinction risk among experts and presents his own perspective, balancing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. He argues that intermediate AIs could help solve alignment problems before a world-killing AI emerges, but also considers the possibility of 'sleeper agent' AIs that pretend to be aligned while waiting for an opportunity to act against human interests. The post explores key assumptions that differentiate optimistic and pessimistic views on AI risk, including AI coherence, cooperation, alignment solvability, superweapon feasibility, and the nature of AI progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses Kelly betting to argue why AI development, unlike other technologies, poses too great a risk to civilization to pursue aggressively. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Scott Aaronson's argument for being less hostile to AI development. While agreeing with Aaronson's points about nuclear power and other technologies where excessive caution caused harm, Alexander argues that AI is different. He uses the concept of Kelly betting from finance to explain why: even with good bets, you shouldn't risk everything at once. Alexander contends that while technology is generally a great bet, AI development risks 'betting everything' on civilization's future. He concludes that while some AI development is necessary, we must treat existential risks differently than other technological risks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his California ballot recommendations, updating some of his views and providing additional context on various races and propositions. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's California ballot recommendations. It covers various topics including Prop 31's impact on vaping, the Service Employees International Union's tactics regarding dialysis regulations, Newsom's campaign spending, Oakland mayoral race, and other ballot measures. Scott also updates some of his recommendations based on reader input, particularly for the Attorney General race. Shorter summary

A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Viral' by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley, which explores the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reviewer summarizes key points from the book, including evidence for both natural and lab leak hypotheses, the history of lab leaks, the relevance of Wuhan's location, and criticisms of institutional responses. The review also covers technical evidence and debates around it, while emphasizing the reviewer's uncertainty about the pandemic's true origin. The author concludes by reflecting on the role of amateur researchers and the importance of scientific self-correction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and challenges in running a microgrants program, offering insights and advice for others considering similar initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience running a microgrants program, detailing the challenges and complexities involved. He discusses the difficulty of evaluating grant proposals, relying on expert advisors, dealing with applicants' poor grant-writing skills, and navigating the moral dilemmas of effective altruism. Scott concludes by questioning whether running such a program is worthwhile for most people, suggesting alternatives like donating to established charities, and proposing a new impact certificate-based system for future grant-making. Shorter summary