Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, awarding funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, which awarded funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. He provides details on the awardees, their projects, and the grant amounts. Scott also discusses the challenges of the grant-making process, acknowledges the help he received, and outlines future steps for the program. Shorter summary