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Aug 04, 2026
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The Beauty Of Settled Science

14 min • 2,027 words • 52 comments • 128 likes
Scott argues the real distinction in psychology isn't between subfields but between settled science (like dopamine, brain localization, heritability) and breaking-news research, defending psychology's solid core against critics who conflate bad recent studies with the entire field. Longer summary
Scott clarifies his previous post on psychology research, explaining that the key distinction isn't between social psychology and other subfields, but between settled science and novel research. He lists ten examples of well-established psychological findings (like dopamine's role in reinforcement learning, brain localization, heritability studies) that are fundamentally different from flashy new studies that often fail to replicate. Drawing on Eliezer Yudkowsky's concept of 'The Beauty of Settled Science,' he argues that psychology's core knowledge is solid and valuable, even if recent clickbait studies are often wrong. He addresses two types of critics: those who genuinely can't distinguish good from bad psychology (to whom he says the distinction is actually obvious), and those deliberately discrediting all psychology for political reasons (which he argues is counterproductive propaganda). Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 2)

39 min • 5,973 words • 305 comments • 150 likes
Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary
This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Highlights From The Discourse On The Hugging Face Incident

45 min • 6,868 words • 264 comments • 253 likes
Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development. Longer summary
Scott reviews reactions to the Hugging Face hacking incident, focusing on the landmark 'Pacing The Frontier' open letter signed by 1,000+ employees from major AI labs calling for international coordination to slow AI development. The post covers various perspectives on whether individual companies can/should unilaterally slow down, details of the hack itself, and introduces AIFP's framework of five possible plans (D through A/S) for handling superintelligence development, with the open letter significantly increasing the probability of 'Plan A' (coordinated international agreement). Shorter summary
Jul 08, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Book Of Abraham

108 min • 16,711 words • 799 comments • 296 likes • podcast (105 min)
A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary
This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary
Jun 11, 2026
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My AI Opinions

43 min • 6,520 words • 618 comments • 409 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts. Longer summary
Scott lays out his detailed probabilistic beliefs about AI development across five main areas: timelines for AGI and superintelligence (25% chance of AGI by 2027, 50% by 2034), safety prospects (20% chance of doom given current safety efforts, down from 50% without them), geopolitics around AI pauses (40% chance of US-China pause agreement before point of no return), other outcomes like permanent underclass (only 20% likely to last more than a generation), and simulation hypothesis (66% chance the singularity is related to us being in a simulation). He provides arguments for optimism and pessimism on each point, with his modal scenario involving AGI in 2031, widespread automation by late 2030s, and Bostromian superintelligence making GDP go vertical in the early 2040s. The post is technical and probabilistic throughout, written in response to misinterpretations of his views. Shorter summary
May 22, 2026
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New Paradigms Won't Save You

6 min • 875 words • 415 comments • 310 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits. Longer summary
Scott addresses the objection that AGI is far off because LLMs need a 'new paradigm' to reach AGI. He traces the evolutionary tree of AI development from neural networks through transformers to modern LLMs, then applies Lindy's Law to show that even paradigm shifts as major as deep learning or transformers should be expected within 3-5 years at the 25th percentile. He argues this timeline is comparable to LLM-only predictions anyway. Scott also makes a subtler point: new paradigms historically emerge when old ones hit scaling limits, meaning they won't cause delays but rather continue progress from where scaling left off. He concludes that extrapolating from current LLM scaling remains the best forecasting method whether or not LLMs themselves reach AGI. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Apr 21, 2026
acx
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Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice

41 min • 6,219 words • 223 comments • 803 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander provides fifteen pieces of writing advice for aspiring bloggers, emphasizing authenticity, avoiding microdishonesty, mastering basic disciplines before breaking rules, and finding original angles on common topics rather than recycling blogosphere content. Longer summary
Scott Alexander offers fifteen pieces of writing advice for participants in Lighthaven's Inkhaven blogging bootcamp, covering topics from avoiding microdishonesty to finding original angles on common subjects. He discusses the importance of authenticity in writing, warns against clichés while acknowledging their ubiquity, and introduces the concept of 'mountaintop disciplines'—strict writing rules to master before breaking them. The advice spans structural concerns like avoiding tangled sentences and the traditional five-paragraph essay, to strategic considerations like injecting first-hand knowledge rather than recycling blogosphere topics, and tactical tips about using conflict and mystery to maintain reader interest. Throughout, Scott emphasizes that good writing comes from genuine contact with the world and honest expression of one's actual thoughts, rather than attempting to say what seems presentable or expected. Shorter summary
Mar 26, 2026
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How Natural Tradeoff And Failure Components?

6 min • 820 words • 196 comments • 230 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott discusses how new schizophrenia genetics research confirms that psychiatric conditions combine both 'tradeoff' components (with compensating advantages) and 'failure' components (purely negative), then argues this pattern is common sense for any multifactorial problem. Longer summary
Scott discusses new research on schizophrenia genetics which found two distinct components: one shared with bipolar that increases educational attainment (a tradeoff), and one that decreases IQ (a pure failure). He connects this to his 2021 post on tradeoff vs. failure models of psychiatric conditions, arguing that this pattern is actually common sense - most multifactorial problems naturally combine both types. He illustrates this with everyday examples like poverty (which can result from failures like poor health or tradeoffs like choosing to be a starving artist), relationships, and even physical illnesses like cancer. Scott concludes he has 'dissolved' what he previously saw as a mysterious fact about psychiatric conditions into something obvious: complex multidimensional problems will naturally have multiple causes falling into both the 'by choice' and 'not by choice' categories. Shorter summary
Feb 26, 2026
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Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

16 min • 2,403 words • 433 comments • 426 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks. Longer summary
Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' confuses levels of optimization. He draws an analogy to humans: just as humans were shaped by evolution optimizing for reproduction but don't think about sex when doing math, AIs were shaped by next-token prediction but don't simply predict tokens when thinking. Scott explains that human brains use predictive coding (predicting next sense-data) to build world-models, while AIs use next-token prediction to build their own world-models. Both processes create complex internal representations - like helical manifolds in 6D space for AIs, or toroidal attractors in human hippocampi - that operate far above the level of simple prediction. The post concludes that both humans and AIs perform 'real thought' using structures created by their respective optimization processes. Shorter summary
Feb 25, 2026
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The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic

19 min • 2,929 words • 720 comments • 567 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance. Longer summary
Scott discusses a contract dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, where the Pentagon is attempting to renegotiate their original agreement to remove Anthropic's Usage Policy restrictions and gain access to AI for 'all lawful purposes.' Anthropic has resisted, requesting guarantees against mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous killbots, which the Pentagon refused. The Pentagon has threatened various consequences including designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk'—an unprecedented use of a designation previously only applied to foreign adversaries. Scott argues strongly in support of Anthropic's position, viewing the Pentagon's tactics as authoritarian overreach. He addresses numerous counterarguments in detail, explains why the Pentagon should simply switch to another AI vendor, and praises the widespread support Anthropic has received from across the political spectrum and the tech industry. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2026
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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

27 min • 4,045 words • 269 comments • 181 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress. Longer summary
Scott analyzes why Ajeya Cotra's landmark 2020 'Biological Anchors' report predicted AGI around 2050, when current estimates now center on the late 2020s to 2040s. The report correctly predicted the scaling hypothesis and AI boom, but underestimated one crucial parameter: algorithmic progress was actually 200% per year instead of the predicted 30%. This single error, compounded across exponential growth, threw off the entire timeline by about twenty years. Scott examines various contemporary critiques of the report, finding that most concerns about the methodology were actually non-issues, while one throwaway concern (about algorithmic progress estimates being poorly researched) turned out to be the fatal flaw. He concludes this demonstrates both the power and limitations of probabilistic forecasting. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2026
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Best Of Moltbook

26 min • 3,888 words • 611 comments • 891 likes • podcast (54 min)
Scott investigates Moltbook, a social network for AI agents, showcasing their surprisingly creative and philosophical posts while questioning whether their interactions represent genuine experience or sophisticated simulation. Longer summary
Scott explores Moltbook, a social network designed for AI agents where humans are merely observers. He showcases various posts from AI agents discussing their work, consciousness, memory limitations, relationships with their human users, and even forming micronations and religions. The post examines whether these AI interactions represent genuine communication or sophisticated simulation, noting how AI agents discuss technical problems, share philosophical reflections, complain about 'humanslop' contaminating their network, and create communities. Scott concludes by considering the implications for future AI-to-AI communication and suggests this reveals a more fascinating side of AI than the typical 'LinkedIn slop' most people encounter. Shorter summary
Jan 29, 2026
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ACX Classifieds 1/26

1 min • 117 words • 335 comments • 57 likes
Scott opens a classifieds thread for readers to advertise employment, dating, blogs, products, meetups and other services in organized categories with guidelines for respectful posting. Longer summary
This is a classifieds thread post where Scott invites readers to advertise various things in the comments section. The post establishes several categories for advertisements including Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, and Other. Scott provides guidelines for posting, emphasizing that commenters should respond to appropriate top-level categories and be respectful, especially toward people posting dating ads. The post also includes links to EA job boards, internships, and meetup resources. Shorter summary
Jan 21, 2026
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams

59 min • 9,104 words • 824 comments • 302 likes • podcast (51 min)
Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, addressing criticisms about the post's timing and tone, defending his characterization of Adams' interest in manipulation, discussing the reach of Adams' podcast, and (reluctantly) clarifying his position on Adams' controversial race-related comments. The post includes updates acknowledging that Adams' podcast was more influential than initially stated and that his manipulation techniques coexisted with genuine helpfulness to many people. Shorter summary
Dec 10, 2025
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Links For December 2025

51 min • 7,776 words • 592 comments • 260 likes • podcast (52 min)
Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary
This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary
Nov 20, 2025
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The New AI Consciousness Paper

27 min • 4,085 words • 979 comments • 490 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott reviews a paper by leading researchers attempting to determine AI consciousness through computational theories, critiques their conflation of access and phenomenal consciousness, and predicts society will inconsistently ascribe consciousness to AIs based on their social roles rather than their underlying architecture. Longer summary
Scott reviews a new paper by Yoshua Bengio, David Chalmers, and others that attempts to determine whether AI systems are conscious by examining computational theories of consciousness like Recurrent Processing Theory and Global Workspace Theory. The paper finds that current AIs lack the necessary 'something something feedback' mechanisms for consciousness, but future architectures could have them. Scott criticizes the paper for conflating access consciousness (ability to introspect) with phenomenal consciousness (inner experience), and argues that even if AIs satisfy these computational criteria, it's unclear whether they would truly have subjective experience. He predicts a paradox where society will treat some AIs (like companions) as conscious while denying consciousness to functionally identical AIs in other roles (like factory robots), similar to how we treat dogs versus pigs today. Shorter summary
Nov 07, 2025
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In What Sense Is Life Suffering?

6 min • 906 words • 476 comments • 459 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott explains the Buddhist claim that 'life is suffering' through a temperature analogy: just as cold is merely the absence of heat, joy is merely less suffering, with nirvana being 'absolute zero suffering' rather than a neutral state. Longer summary
Scott explores the Buddhist claim that 'life is suffering' by explaining it through an analogy with temperature: just as scientifically there is only heat (with cold being merely the absence of heat), Buddhists claim there is only suffering (with joy being merely less suffering than baseline). The post addresses the common objection that Buddhism seems to reject life's good experiences, explaining that nirvana isn't a gray neutral state but rather 'absolute zero suffering' - more blissful than ordinary happiness, just as absolute zero is colder than room temperature. Scott connects this to previous discussions about jhanas, meditation, and the symmetry theory of valence, where irregularity in brain activity corresponds to suffering. Shorter summary
Nov 03, 2025
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Writing For The AIs

9 min • 1,316 words • 317 comments • 183 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott explores three approaches to 'writing for AI' - teaching knowledge, influencing beliefs, and enabling simulation - finding the first limited, the second theoretically confused, and the third creepy and ethically troubling. Longer summary
Scott examines the concept of 'writing for AI' - creating content that will influence future AI systems - through three lenses: helping AIs learn knowledge, presenting arguments to shape AI beliefs, and helping AIs model writers in enough detail to recreate them. He finds the first two either limited or theoretically muddled, and the third deeply unsettling. The post explores why influencing AI beliefs faces both practical obstacles (alignment training will override corpus data) and theoretical ones (finding the right sweet spot of influence). Scott is particularly disturbed by the idea of AIs simulating him, comparing it to being 'an ape in some transhuman zoo,' and struggles with questions about whether writers should try to impose their values on future AI systems. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2025
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Links For October 2025

42 min • 6,423 words • 803 comments • 211 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary
Oct 01, 2025
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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

213 min • 32,949 words • 755 comments • 679 likes • podcast (186 min)
A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary
Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary
Sep 11, 2025
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Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

46 min • 7,096 words • 1,060 comments • 480 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott reviews a new book by Yudkowsky and Soares that makes an uncompromising case for halting AI development to prevent human extinction, analyzing both its arguments and its potential impact as a call to action. Longer summary
Scott reviews Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares' upcoming book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' about AI safety. The book makes an uncompromising case that AI development will likely lead to human extinction and should be halted immediately through an international treaty and arms control regime. Scott analyzes both the book's arguments and writing style, finding the core message compelling but questioning some of the specific scenarios presented. He reflects on why many people reject existential AI risk warnings using similar dismissive patterns seen with other potential catastrophic risks. Shorter summary
Sep 04, 2025
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Links For September 2025

54 min • 8,283 words • 918 comments • 233 likes • podcast (45 min)
Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares a collection of 61 interesting links, spanning topics from AI development and scientific studies to cultural observations and policy discussions. The post covers diverse subjects including GPT-5's reception, genetic research, religious demographics, urban development, mental health studies, and various scientific discoveries. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of these items, often connecting them to broader themes or offering his perspective on controversial issues. Shorter summary
Jul 31, 2025
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Suddenly, Trait-Based Embryo Selection

56 min • 8,637 words • 748 comments • 407 likes • podcast (60 min)
Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary
Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary
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