Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.

Scott Alexander reviews Will MacAskill's 'What We Owe The Future', a book arguing for longtermism and considering our moral obligations to future generations.

Scott Alexander discusses a new expert survey on long-term AI risks, highlighting the diverse scenarios considered and the lack of consensus on specific threats.

The post compares space colonization and terrestrial lifeboats as X-risk mitigation strategies, concluding that space colonies may offer better long-term survival guarantees despite higher costs.

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought.

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings.

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.

Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles.

Scott Alexander examines the concept of innate ability and argues for its acceptance, while cautioning against tying self-worth to intellectual achievement.

The post analyzes a debate about the effectiveness of MIRI, an AI safety organization, focusing on critiques of their academic output and defenses of their outreach efforts.