Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy. Longer summary

Scott examines whether AI forecasters will plateau near current human performance or continue improving far beyond it. He analyzes a 2010 study by Daniel Reeves showing prediction markets only marginally outperformed simple statistical models, but argues this doesn't necessarily limit future progress. The post reframes those results to show they actually represent meaningful gains in difficult-to-predict domains like sports, then applies this reasoning to geopolitical forecasting. Using three different 'anchors' - comparing AI improvements to past technological gains, human-to-superhuman forecaster improvements, and chess AI progress - Scott estimates that maximally capable AI forecasters could improve prediction market accuracy by 4-12 percentage points over current levels, which he argues would be genuinely valuable even if not miraculous. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent Manifest conference for prediction market enthusiasts, highlighting key issues such as regulatory challenges, potential applications in hiring, and the use of prediction markets in journalism. He also covers the launch of Manifold.love, a prediction market-based dating site, and analyzes recent prediction market activity on topics like the Gaza hospital explosion and various political events. The post concludes with updates on prediction market developments and related initiatives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary