Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events.

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.