Scott Alexander explains why dismissing warnings just because previous similar warnings were wrong is a dangerous fallacy, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time.

A review of 'Safe Enough?' by Thomas Wellock, exploring the history and limitations of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in nuclear safety.

Scott Alexander uses Kelly betting to argue why AI development, unlike other technologies, poses too great a risk to civilization to pursue aggressively.

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making.

Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications.

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty.

Scott reviews 'The Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb, examining its key concepts and Taleb's unique perspective on probability and risk.

Scott Alexander criticizes Ted Chiang's article that compares AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the analogy is flawed and the reasoning behind it is unsound.

Scott Alexander critiques the argument that terrorism is less concerning than mundane accidents, showing how excluding 'outlier' events can dangerously skew risk assessments for threats like terrorism and pandemics.

Scott Alexander analyzes the health risks of eating processed meat, demonstrating how to put such risks in perspective and interpret mortality statistics accurately.

Scott examines how rare but severe drug side effects often lead to underprescription compared to drugs with common but less severe side effects, potentially resulting in suboptimal patient care.

Scott satirizes media reporting on AI risk by presenting exaggerated or misrepresented coverage of other potential dangers, highlighting issues in risk reporting.

Ozy argues for diversifying charitable donations, while Scott counters that focusing on the single most efficient charity at any given time is more effective.

Scott Alexander defends an economic principle often mocked in jokes, explaining its validity when applied to long-standing, seemingly obvious financial opportunities.

Scott announces an essay competition on 'risk' with a 200 euro first prize, noting the organizer's interest in probability calibration and cognitive biases.