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Feb 24, 2026
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Malicious Streetlight Effects Vs. "Directional Correctness" - A Semi-Non-Apology

6 min • 885 words • 558 comments • 305 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott examines the tension between correcting false claims (like that crime is actually up but hidden) and being accused of deflecting from related legitimate concerns (like disorder), using his recent crime posts as an example. Longer summary
Scott discusses two opposing rhetorical fallacies: the 'malicious streetlight effect' (debunking a slightly different claim than what was actually made) and 'directional correctness' (making claims slightly stronger than evidence supports). He uses his recent crime statistics posts as an example, where he was accused of the streetlight fallacy—arguing crime is down when people's real concerns were about disorder and quality-of-life issues. Scott defends his posts by noting he was responding to real, influential arguments that crime rates are actually up but hidden by reporting bias or medical advances (citing neoreactionary blogs that claimed murder would be 40x higher without modern medicine). He acknowledges the tension: it's important to correct false claims, but doing so can look like deflection from legitimate related concerns. His solution is to explicitly acknowledge related topics upfront and promise to address them separately. Shorter summary
Feb 19, 2026
acx
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Crime As Proxy For Disorder

19 min • 2,874 words • 794 comments • 291 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott examines whether reported increases in "crime" actually reflect concerns about "disorder" (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments), finding that most disorder metrics are either stable or down from historical highs, contradicting narratives of societal collapse. Longer summary
Scott investigates the theory that public concern about rising crime is actually proxy concern about rising disorder (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments, boom boxes). He systematically examines data for each type of disorder and finds that most are either down from historical highs or only modestly increased from recent lows. Litter is down since the 1970s, graffiti is unclear but likely down in most places, shoplifting is up 20% from lows but still below 1990s levels, and homelessness is up 25% but equal to 1990s levels. He proposes four theories for why people perceive disorder as rising: the small 2020 bump, white people returning to cities through gentrification, romanticization of the unique 1930s-1960s crime minimum, and different forms of disorder in past versus present. Scott concludes by distinguishing between specific, evidence-based concerns about particular problems versus vague civilizational collapse narratives, arguing the former is both more accurate and more conducive to normal life. Shorter summary
Feb 18, 2026
acx
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Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

17 min • 2,566 words • 718 comments • 388 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary
Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary
Feb 11, 2026
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Political Backflow From Europe

14 min • 2,052 words • 1,150 comments • 401 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics. Longer summary
Scott argues that American political discourse sometimes absorbs European issues that don't apply to the US context. He gives two main examples: the narrative about generational wealth transfer through pensions (which happens in Europe but not America), and conservative talking points about immigrants being criminals and welfare recipients (largely true in parts of Europe, largely false in America). He provides detailed statistics showing that most US immigrant groups, including asylum seekers, have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, contrasting this with higher rates in countries like Germany. Scott suggests both liberals and conservatives avoid acknowledging this difference because it's politically inconvenient, but argues liberals should directly challenge conservatives to focus on American rather than European data. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Aug 09, 2023
acx
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Links For August 2023

26 min • 3,927 words • 754 comments • 137 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary
Jul 08, 2022
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Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike

32 min • 4,870 words • 439 comments • 108 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander defends his analysis of the 2020 US homicide spike against various counterarguments, maintaining that it was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about the 2020 homicide spike in the US. He addresses several counterarguments and alternative explanations, including the role of increased gun sales, racial differences in homicide rates, the exact timing of the spike, changes in policing behavior, media coverage, academic literature on the topic, and potential effects of warm weather. Scott largely maintains his original position that the spike was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests, rather than other factors like the pandemic or increased gun ownership. Shorter summary
Jun 29, 2022
acx
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What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?

26 min • 3,881 words • 1,358 comments • 338 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary
Jun 29, 2022
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko

63 min • 9,636 words • 493 comments • 67 likes • podcast (65 min)
Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates. Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlights from reader comments on Scott Alexander's review of the book 'San Fransicko'. It covers various topics related to homelessness, crime, and urban policy in San Francisco and other cities. The comments provide additional context, personal anecdotes, data analysis, and critiques of both the book and Scott's review. Key themes include the complexity of homelessness, issues with crime statistics, debates over housing policy, and differing perspectives on how to address urban problems. Shorter summary
Jan 10, 2016
ssc
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Guns and States 2: Son of a Gun

7 min • 1,020 words • 507 comments
Scott Alexander offers follow-up insights on his guns and states analysis, addressing cultural factors, rape correlations, replication issues, and the complexity of gun control debates. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides follow-up thoughts on his previous post about guns and states. He discusses the interaction between cultural factors and gun ownership, explores correlations with rape rates, addresses replication issues, and critiques the gun control debate. He also mentions a meta-analysis by Gary Kleck that shows mixed results in guns-homicide correlation studies, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple studies rather than relying on a single one. Shorter summary
Nov 08, 2013
ssc
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Lies, Damned Lies, And Facebook (Part 4 of ∞)

14 min • 2,160 words • 52 comments
Scott Alexander debunks claims of effectiveness for Vancouver's 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign, arguing that the reported crime reduction is likely due to normal statistical fluctuations rather than the campaign's impact. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques claims that the 'Don't Be That Guy' anti-rape campaign in Vancouver reduced sexual assault rates by 10%. He argues that such small changes in crime rates are common and don't necessarily indicate causation. He examines crime statistics from Vancouver and Edmonton, where the campaign originated, showing that similar fluctuations occur in various crime categories and across different years. Scott suggests that the apparent success of the campaign may be due to selective reporting and misinterpretation of statistics. He concludes by proposing that such campaigns might be more about signaling group membership than actually reducing crime. Shorter summary
Oct 20, 2013
ssc
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The Anti-Reactionary FAQ

228 min • 35,224 words • 810 comments
This post systematically rebuts common Reactionary political beliefs on topics like societal decline, traditional governance, progress, and social issues through data analysis and historical examples. Longer summary
This post is an extensive rebuttal to common beliefs held by the Reactionary political movement. It systematically addresses and counters Reactionary claims about societal decline, traditional monarchies, the origins and nature of progress, corporate governance models, and modern views on race and gender. The author analyzes data and historical examples to argue against Reactionary positions, while acknowledging some valid critiques and interesting ideas within the movement. The post ends by listing various rebuttals and responses to the FAQ itself from Reactionary bloggers. Shorter summary
Apr 18, 2013
ssc
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Arguments About Male Violence Prove Too Much

23 min • 3,418 words • 173 comments
Scott Alexander argues that generalizing male violence to all men is problematic, drawing parallels with racist generalizations about crime. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques arguments that generalize male violence to all men, drawing a parallel with how similar arguments about black people and crime would be considered racist. He analyzes statistics on crime rates by race and gender, showing that while there are disproportions, it's unfair and counterproductive to treat all members of a group as dangerous. The post suggests ways to discuss violence and rape awareness more constructively, without unfairly stigmatizing entire groups. Scott emphasizes the importance of acknowledging that the vast majority of men are not violent, and argues that overgeneralizing can be harmful both to men and to the goal of reducing violence against women. Shorter summary
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