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11 posts found
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Jul 09, 2026
acx
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Introducing Plan A

33 min • 4,971 words • 778 comments • 437 likes
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040. Longer summary
Scott introduces Plan A, a detailed roadmap created by Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project for navigating the AI transition safely. The plan envisions a trustless regulatory agreement between the US and China built on controlling chip supply and auditing data centers, followed by a 'golden mean' approach where both countries rapidly advance to top-human-genius-level AI while pausing before superintelligence. During this pause in the 2030s, billions of genius-level AIs would solve alignment and other major problems while being kept in controlled environments, eventually leading to fully aligned superintelligence around 2040 that helps chart humanity's future. The post frames this as offering a positive vision that satisfies both safety concerns and accelerationist goals through triple-digit GDP growth and rapid problem-solving. Shorter summary
Jul 02, 2026
acx
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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

39 min • 5,984 words • 325 comments • 540 likes • podcast (42 min)
Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary
Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary
Apr 30, 2026
acx
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What Deontological Bars?

11 min • 1,687 words • 438 comments • 251 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott explores what constitutes a deontological bar (hard moral rule) by examining when consequentialist reasoning should be constrained, using debates within AI safety about working with AI companies versus pursuing regulation as his main examples. Longer summary
Scott examines the concept of deontological bars - hard moral rules that shouldn't be broken even for good consequences - and tries to develop a framework for determining what counts as such a rule. He starts with the classic example of not assassinating leaders, then explores various formulations like 'act as if your maxim would become a general law' and 'don't defect from functioning norms,' testing them against cases like military disarmament and spreading misinformation. The post is motivated by debates in AI safety between those working with AI companies and those pursuing pause/ban regulations, with each side suspecting the other might be violating deontological bars. Scott proposes that the rule might be 'don't do something which would be bad if universalized, unless the norm is non-functioning in such a way that you'd be playing cooperate while your enemy plays defect,' though he acknowledges this requires interpretive work and common sense to apply. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
acx
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2026
acx
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"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know

27 min • 4,148 words • 435 comments • 427 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the controversy around AI companies' contracts with the Department of War, focusing on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's designation of Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk' after they refused to allow their AI to be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The post examines OpenAI's subsequent agreement with the DoW, which permits 'all lawful use' of their models. Through detailed legal analysis provided by anonymous readers, Scott shows that current laws have significant loopholes: mass domestic surveillance is technically legal when data is 'incidentally obtained' or purchased from third parties, and autonomous weapons are only regulated by vague DoW policies that can be changed at will. The post critiques OpenAI's FAQ as misleading, arguing their safeguards are inadequate, and concludes with questions that employees, journalists, and lawmakers should be asking about the contract. Shorter summary
Feb 25, 2026
acx
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The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic

19 min • 2,929 words • 720 comments • 567 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance. Longer summary
Scott discusses a contract dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, where the Pentagon is attempting to renegotiate their original agreement to remove Anthropic's Usage Policy restrictions and gain access to AI for 'all lawful purposes.' Anthropic has resisted, requesting guarantees against mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous killbots, which the Pentagon refused. The Pentagon has threatened various consequences including designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk'—an unprecedented use of a designation previously only applied to foreign adversaries. Scott argues strongly in support of Anthropic's position, viewing the Pentagon's tactics as authoritarian overreach. He addresses numerous counterarguments in detail, explains why the Pentagon should simply switch to another AI vendor, and praises the widespread support Anthropic has received from across the political spectrum and the tech industry. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
acx
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Dec 10, 2025
acx
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Links For December 2025

51 min • 7,776 words • 592 comments • 260 likes • podcast (52 min)
Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary
This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary
Apr 03, 2025
acx
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Introducing AI 2027

9 min • 1,307 words • 606 comments • 516 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2025
acx
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Deliberative Alignment, And The Spec

16 min • 2,460 words • 266 comments • 200 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott analyzes OpenAI's new deliberative alignment approach and explores different possibilities for who should ultimately control AI systems as they become more powerful. Longer summary
Scott discusses OpenAI's new paper on deliberative alignment, which combines constitutional AI with chain of thought reasoning to create more thoughtful AI responses. He explains how the process works by having AI models reflect on moral questions using a specification document. The post then explores different possible approaches to AI chains of command, including prioritizing companies, governments, specifications, moral law, average citizens, or humanity's coherent extrapolated volition. Scott expresses concern that we're heading toward either corporate or government control of AI systems, while acknowledging there may be better alternatives. Shorter summary
Mar 06, 2019
ssc
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Links 3/19: Linkguini

16 min • 2,429 words • 558 comments
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary
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