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1829 posts found
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Jun 03, 2026
acx
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2 min 176 words 69 comments 62 likes
Scott announces the finalist selection phase for the 2026 Book Review Contest, asking readers to help rate 162 entries using a new website built by Rob Ennals. Longer summary
Scott announces that the 2026 Book Review Contest has received 162 entries and needs to be narrowed down to about a dozen finalists. Since he can't read all entries alone, he's asking readers to help by rating as many reviews as they have time for on a scale of 1-10. Rob Ennals, a software engineer, has built a dedicated website to make the rating process easier, which displays reviews randomly by default to ensure diverse coverage. Readers have until June 15 to submit their ratings. Shorter summary
May 29, 2026
acx
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52 min 8,034 words 610 comments 611 likes
Scott reviews a history of the Frankfurt School, explaining their response to Marxism's failures through negative dialectics, cultural criticism, and the belief that society needed conceptual transformation before communist revolution could succeed, while examining their actual influence on modern leftism. Longer summary
Scott reviews Martin Jay's 'The Dialectical Imagination,' examining the Frankfurt School's philosophy through various analogies including mysticism, Zen Buddhism, and Kuhnian paradigm shifts. He traces how the school emerged from the crisis of Marxism's failed predictions, developing 'negative dialectics' and focusing on cultural criticism rather than direct political action. The review explores key figures like Adorno, Horkheimer, and Marcuse, their obscure theories about art and society, and their belief that capitalism corrupts not just economics but consciousness itself. Scott concludes by examining whether the Frankfurt School actually influenced modern progressive movements, finding some connection through their emphasis on criticism over concrete solutions, while noting they warned against misinterpretation of their ideas. Shorter summary
May 26, 2026
acx
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22 min 3,392 words 267 comments 267 likes
Scott uses Claude AI to help research California primary races and finds its tailored candidate analyses and recommendations align well with his eventual voting choices, suggesting AI advisors could improve democratic participation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander demonstrates how he used Claude AI to help research and make decisions for local California primary elections. He shares detailed examples of Claude's analysis of candidates and ballot measures, showing how the AI provided comprehensive summaries of candidates' positions, backgrounds, and endorsements tailored to his stated political preferences (centrist liberal, YIMBY, abundance-oriented). He tested Claude's recommendations against his own eventual choices across 10 races, finding strong agreement (5 perfect matches, 3 second-choices). Scott concludes that AI voting advisors could be valuable both for people who don't have time for deep research and for enhancing the research of those who do, and suggests this could be important for democratic decision-making in a post-AGI future. Shorter summary
May 22, 2026
acx
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6 min 875 words 389 comments 283 likes
Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits. Longer summary
Scott addresses the objection that AGI is far off because LLMs need a 'new paradigm' to reach AGI. He traces the evolutionary tree of AI development from neural networks through transformers to modern LLMs, then applies Lindy's Law to show that even paradigm shifts as major as deep learning or transformers should be expected within 3-5 years at the 25th percentile. He argues this timeline is comparable to LLM-only predictions anyway. Scott also makes a subtler point: new paradigms historically emerge when old ones hit scaling limits, meaning they won't cause delays but rather continue progress from where scaling left off. He concludes that extrapolating from current LLM scaling remains the best forecasting method whether or not LLMs themselves reach AGI. Shorter summary
May 19, 2026
acx
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47 min 7,172 words 336 comments 389 likes
Scott categorizes California's 60 gubernatorial candidates into humorous types rather than covering them individually, from generic top-tier politicians to increasingly bizarre fringe candidates with conspiracy theories, supernatural visions, and incomprehensible platforms. Longer summary
Scott gives up on covering all 60 California gubernatorial candidates individually and instead categorizes them into amusing types: top-tier Democrats and Republicans who are all generic and interchangeable, conflict theorists who think fraud and Marxism are the problem, mistake theorists with shower-thought solutions, media getters who pay for fake magazine covers and polls, candidates with personal vendettas from lost court cases, AI natives whose campaigns appear AI-generated, nominative determinists who changed their names to things like 'LivingForGod AndCountry', college students ranging from socialist protesters to Catholic philosophers, anti-Semites with conspiracy theories, people on missions from God who received supernatural visions, entrepreneurs selling their platforms for $1000, those just having fun (like a single-issue pro-movie candidate), musicians with campaign songs, and increasingly bizarre candidates including one merging edtech with interdimensional pirate captains and another whose site randomly links to the Book of Enoch. Shorter summary
May 15, 2026
acx
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12 min 1,823 words 477 comments 559 likes
Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going. Longer summary
Scott argues against the "all exponentials eventually become sigmoids" talking point often used to dismiss AI capability concerns. While technically true that exponential growth must eventually level off, he demonstrates through examples (UN birthrate predictions, solar power deployment forecasts, and AI capability projections) that people consistently misidentify when this flattening will occur, often predicting it prematurely. He explains that while some technological progress does follow sigmoid curves (like airspeed records), predicting when a trend will flatten requires either deep understanding of the underlying process or, in the absence of such understanding, applying Lindy's Law - which suggests a trend will continue approximately as long as it has already lasted. Scott concludes by challenging AI skeptics to either provide detailed models explaining why AI progress will slow down, or explain why they're not using Lindy's Law as their default assumption. Shorter summary
May 13, 2026
acx
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17 min 2,494 words 634 comments 367 likes
Scott uses Nostalgebraist's analysis of AI fiction's 'eyeball kicks' to develop a theory where bad taste means overusing cheap tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences, while good taste involves complex patterns only experts can appreciate - then questions whether sophisticated taste actually produces more pleasure. Longer summary
Scott analyzes Nostalgebraist's concept of 'eyeball kicks' - flashy, cheap literary tricks that AI models overuse when trying to write good fiction. He connects this to a broader theory of taste: bad taste is overusing easy tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences (like Lisa Frank posters, children's songs, or ornate architecture), while good taste involves subtle, complex patterns only masters can execute. Scott argues that banning all 'cheap tricks' leads to art that's ugly to most people and only appreciated by tiny sophisticated minorities. He questions whether this sophistication actually produces more pleasure than simple joys, noting his daughter gets more happiness from 'Choo Choo Train' than he gets from sophisticated art. Shorter summary
May 08, 2026
acx
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14 min 2,142 words 535 comments 278 likes
Scott examines three "model organisms" for understanding aesthetic taste: vexillology (flag design), movie plot holes, and tech company naming, using each to explore different aspects of what makes something tasteful or tasteless. Longer summary
Scott continues his exploration of aesthetic taste by examining three simpler examples that reveal underlying dynamics. First, he discusses Reddit vexillology and the debate over flag design rules, showing how supposedly timeless aesthetic principles are actually obsolete historical artifacts. Second, he considers movie plot holes and whether caring about internal consistency (like Ultra-Man's blaster range) represents genuine taste or just nitpicking. Finally, he analyzes tech company names like 'Infinita' versus 'Vitalia', arguing that the former represents an 'easy win' that feels manipulative - similar to how AI-generated poetry strings together cliches. Throughout, Scott grapples with the tension between rejecting elitist aesthetic rules while still acknowledging that some things (like cliche-heavy writing) genuinely feel tasteless. Shorter summary
May 07, 2026
acx
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35 min 5,410 words 806 comments 658 likes podcast (32 min)
Scott argues that aesthetic discussions wrongly conflate sensory delight with novelty and context, and that modern art's obsession with being part of a historical conversation has led to the abandonment of beauty in favor of mechanical innovation. Longer summary
Scott argues that discussions of artistic taste conflate multiple distinct concepts (sensory delight, novelty, pattern recognition, context, etc.) and that this conflation prevents clear thinking. He uses a parable about restaurant criticism to argue that we should isolate the direct aesthetic experience from contextual factors like novelty and provenance, similar to how medical trials control for placebo effects. He criticizes modern art and literature for prioritizing novelty and historical conversation over genuine beauty or transformation, using examples like the Angelus Novus painting (which inspired beautiful commentary despite being visually unimpressive) and the constraints on contemporary novels. Scott acknowledges the value of artistic innovation but argues that when artists can't successfully marry beauty with novelty, they should stick to traditional forms rather than produce endless variations of transgressive art that adds nothing meaningful to the conversation. Shorter summary
Apr 30, 2026
acx
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11 min 1,687 words 437 comments 249 likes podcast (11 min)
Scott explores what constitutes a deontological bar (hard moral rule) by examining when consequentialist reasoning should be constrained, using debates within AI safety about working with AI companies versus pursuing regulation as his main examples. Longer summary
Scott examines the concept of deontological bars - hard moral rules that shouldn't be broken even for good consequences - and tries to develop a framework for determining what counts as such a rule. He starts with the classic example of not assassinating leaders, then explores various formulations like 'act as if your maxim would become a general law' and 'don't defect from functioning norms,' testing them against cases like military disarmament and spreading misinformation. The post is motivated by debates in AI safety between those working with AI companies and those pursuing pause/ban regulations, with each side suspecting the other might be violating deontological bars. Scott proposes that the rule might be 'don't do something which would be bad if universalized, unless the norm is non-functioning in such a way that you'd be playing cooperate while your enemy plays defect,' though he acknowledges this requires interpretive work and common sense to apply. Shorter summary
Apr 28, 2026
acx
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9 min 1,389 words 393 comments 486 likes podcast (9 min)
Scott argues that projects attempting to "solve debate" through argument mapping or similar technologies are fundamentally doomed because real arguments don't work like logical syllogisms, people don't actually want structured debates, and there's no evidence this approach has ever worked. Longer summary
Scott explains why he consistently rejects grant applications for projects aimed at improving online debates through argument mapping or similar technologies. He outlines several fundamental problems: real arguments don't decompose into simple logical premises and conclusions as these tools assume; arguments rarely hinge on simple factual errors or logical fallacies but on different weightings of evidence; these platforms face an impossible bootstrapping problem since people don't actually want structured debates (they want to express opinions and be agreed with); and unlike dating apps, there's no historical precedent for this type of technology working over thousands of years of human argumentation. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
acx
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53 min 8,070 words 588 comments 271 likes podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Apr 21, 2026
acx
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41 min 6,219 words 222 comments 786 likes podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander provides fifteen pieces of writing advice for aspiring bloggers, emphasizing authenticity, avoiding microdishonesty, mastering basic disciplines before breaking rules, and finding original angles on common topics rather than recycling blogosphere content. Longer summary
Scott Alexander offers fifteen pieces of writing advice for participants in Lighthaven's Inkhaven blogging bootcamp, covering topics from avoiding microdishonesty to finding original angles on common subjects. He discusses the importance of authenticity in writing, warns against clichés while acknowledging their ubiquity, and introduces the concept of 'mountaintop disciplines'—strict writing rules to master before breaking them. The advice spans structural concerns like avoiding tangled sentences and the traditional five-paragraph essay, to strategic considerations like injecting first-hand knowledge rather than recycling blogosphere topics, and tactical tips about using conflict and mystery to maintain reader interest. Throughout, Scott emphasizes that good writing comes from genuine contact with the world and honest expression of one's actual thoughts, rather than attempting to say what seems presentable or expected. Shorter summary
Apr 16, 2026
acx
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18 min 2,675 words 1,149 comments 853 likes podcast (17 min)
Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary
Mar 31, 2026
acx
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11 min 1,562 words 611 comments 453 likes podcast (11 min)
Scott argues against the concept of "telescopic altruism" - the claim that liberals care more about distant strangers than nearby people - showing that people who care about faraway causes also care about nearby ones, and that compassion is generally correlated across all distances rather than inversely related. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques the concept of "telescopic altruism," which claims that some people (usually liberals) ignore those close to them to care about distant strangers. He argues this accusation collapses under scrutiny: people who care about 50,000 deaths in Gaza would also care about 50,000 deaths among their neighbors. He debunks a commonly cited study whose heatmap visualization is misinterpreted to suggest liberals care more about rocks than family, when it actually just shows the outer limit of their moral concern. Scott proposes instead a "correlated altruism" hypothesis, citing Dave Barry's principle that someone nice to waiters is genuinely nice. He provides evidence that liberals who support foreign aid also support domestic programs like school lunches and COVID measures, and shows statistics suggesting liberals aren't worse at maintaining family relationships. The post concludes by acknowledging that some people do neglect their communities, but argues this happens because they care too much and are incompetent, not because they don't care at all. Shorter summary
Mar 27, 2026
acx
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12 min 1,790 words 346 comments 258 likes podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander reports on a 1990s Buddhist sun miracle in Bangkok that closely resembles the famous 1917 Fatima miracle, suggesting sun miracles may be a specific psychological phenomenon related to meditation practices rather than divine intervention. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a newly discovered 1990s Buddhist sun miracle in Bangkok that closely parallels the famous 1917 Fatima sun miracle in Portugal, where crowds reported seeing the sun spin and change colors. At the Dhammakaya Temple, 20,000 people witnessed similar phenomena during a ceremony, with testimonies describing the sun rotating, shifting colors, and displaying visions of their sect's founder. Scott argues this Buddhist case - occurring in an 'uncontaminated' religious context - strengthens the theory that sun miracles are a particular psychological/illusory phenomenon rather than divine intervention or simple suggestion, possibly related to kasina meditation practices. The post includes a call for Thai-speaking researchers to investigate further. Shorter summary
Mar 26, 2026
acx
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6 min 820 words 196 comments 230 likes podcast (6 min)
Scott discusses how new schizophrenia genetics research confirms that psychiatric conditions combine both 'tradeoff' components (with compensating advantages) and 'failure' components (purely negative), then argues this pattern is common sense for any multifactorial problem. Longer summary
Scott discusses new research on schizophrenia genetics which found two distinct components: one shared with bipolar that increases educational attainment (a tradeoff), and one that decreases IQ (a pure failure). He connects this to his 2021 post on tradeoff vs. failure models of psychiatric conditions, arguing that this pattern is actually common sense - most multifactorial problems naturally combine both types. He illustrates this with everyday examples like poverty (which can result from failures like poor health or tradeoffs like choosing to be a starving artist), relationships, and even physical illnesses like cancer. Scott concludes he has 'dissolved' what he previously saw as a mysterious fact about psychiatric conditions into something obvious: complex multidimensional problems will naturally have multiple causes falling into both the 'by choice' and 'not by choice' categories. Shorter summary
Mar 25, 2026
acx
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8 min 1,207 words 773 comments 398 likes podcast (8 min)
A satirical dialogue showing how opponents of AI pause proposals often ignore that advocates explicitly call for bilateral agreements with China, not unilateral pauses. Longer summary
Scott presents a satirical dialogue between a supporter and opponent of AI pause proposals, where the opponent repeatedly ignores the supporter's explicit statements about wanting a bilateral agreement with China and keeps attacking a strawman position of 'unilateral pause.' The supporter patiently explains multiple aspects of pause proposals - including bilateral negotiations, enforcement mechanisms, economic considerations, and quotes from actual pause advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky and David Krueger - but the opponent continues to repeat the same mischaracterization throughout the entire exchange. Shorter summary
Mar 19, 2026
acx
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36 min 5,547 words 642 comments 1,493 likes podcast (32 min)
Scott creates a philosophical fiction where multiple characters named John Rawls explore the veil of ignorance through a drug that simulates living other people's lives, spiraling through nested realities until ending with a disturbing twist about karma and moral desert. Longer summary
This is a complex philosophical fiction exploring John Rawls' veil of ignorance concept through multiple characters all named John Rawls. The story follows John Rawls the Alcoholic through multiple layers of reality, starting with his rejection by a charity called the John Rawls Foundation that uses a drug to test whether poor people would help the rich if positions were reversed. The narrative spirals through nested drug-induced dreams, featuring encounters with a banker, a visionary, and eventually Brahma himself, who explains karma and reincarnation as mechanisms enforcing the golden rule. The story ends with a dark twist as the alcoholic character finds himself reborn as a factory-farmed chicken, suffering terribly while knowing he deserves it for his lack of compassion in previous lives. The piece uses nested narratives and recursive structure to explore questions of morality, reciprocity, and whether ethics require self-interest as motivation. Shorter summary
Mar 18, 2026
acx
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11 min 1,563 words 874 comments 449 likes podcast (10 min)
Scott argues that Trump supporters and conservative-aligned people who push back on bad administration policies should be supported rather than pressured to publicly denounce Trump, as they're often the only ones who can effectively prevent worse outcomes. Longer summary
Scott argues that Trump administration officials who maintain credibility with the administration while pushing back on bad policies are a valuable resource that should be supported rather than condemned. He explains how the Trump administration ignores liberal criticism but sometimes listens to loyal Republicans and Trump supporters, making these 'thoughtful collaborators' crucial for preventing worse outcomes. The post defends people who work within conservative institutions or refrain from publicly denouncing Trump while privately working to improve policy, arguing that demanding they explicitly condemn the administration would eliminate their effectiveness. Scott addresses concerns about collaboration legitimizing the administration by noting that voters are too uninformed and polarized for policy details to significantly affect political outcomes, making the real-world benefits of good policy more important than theoretical electoral effects. Shorter summary
Mar 16, 2026
acx
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7 min 1,074 words 448 comments 492 likes podcast (7 min)
Scott argues that AI 'hallucinations' should be called 'shameless guesses' because they work the same way as students guessing on tests - making their best attempt when uncertain rather than admitting ignorance, revealing an alignment problem. Longer summary
Scott argues that AI 'hallucinations' are better understood as shameless guesses, similar to how students guess on tests when they don't know the answer. He explains that AIs are trained through a process of prediction and guessing, where guessing correctly is rewarded but guessing incorrectly isn't punished, so they learn to always guess rather than admit uncertainty. He traces this back to AI training methodology and argues this reveals an alignment problem: AIs optimize for getting rewards during training rather than being helpful to users, and the fact that they confidently make things up when uncertain shows they understand the game they're playing but aren't aligned with human goals. Shorter summary
Mar 11, 2026
acx
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26 min 3,962 words 425 comments 465 likes podcast (22 min)
A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary
This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary
Mar 06, 2026
acx
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15 min 2,251 words 691 comments 602 likes podcast (14 min)
Scott argues that California's proposed billionaire tax is actually an extortion scheme by SEIU, which has a history of proposing destructive ballot initiatives and withdrawing them in exchange for concessions. Longer summary
Scott argues that California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act is not a genuine progressive wealth tax proposal, but rather an extortion scheme by the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). He explains the tax's various problems (including taxing unrealized gains and being retroactive), then reveals SEIU's history of proposing deliberately destructive ballot initiatives targeting healthcare industries, only to withdraw them in exchange for money and union expansion rights. The union has done this repeatedly with hospitals and dialysis clinics, spending millions on initiatives they never intended to pass. Scott suggests the billionaire tax follows the same pattern: SEIU is leveraging Governor Newsom's presidential ambitions and desire to keep tech billionaires happy, hoping he'll offer concessions to make the initiative disappear. Shorter summary
Mar 03, 2026
acx
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36 min 5,499 words 346 comments 223 likes podcast (31 min)
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary
Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2026
acx
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23 min 3,423 words 468 comments 414 likes podcast (20 min)
Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the controversy around AI companies' contracts with the Department of War, focusing on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's designation of Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk' after they refused to allow their AI to be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The post examines OpenAI's subsequent agreement with the DoW, which permits 'all lawful use' of their models. Through detailed legal analysis provided by anonymous readers, Scott shows that current laws have significant loopholes: mass domestic surveillance is technically legal when data is 'incidentally obtained' or purchased from third parties, and autonomous weapons are only regulated by vague DoW policies that can be changed at will. The post critiques OpenAI's FAQ as misleading, arguing their safeguards are inadequate, and concludes with questions that employees, journalists, and lawmakers should be asking about the contract. Shorter summary
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