Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines several model city projects, including Saudi Arabia's Neom, criticizing its unrealistic plans and discussing other developments in crypto-friendly zones and floating cities. Longer summary

This post discusses several model city projects, focusing on Saudi Arabia's ambitious Neom project, the Catawba Digital Economic Zone, and the Maldives Floating City. Scott critically analyzes Neom's unrealistic plans, including a 170 km long linear city and other grandiose features. He expresses concern about the misuse of Saudi Arabia's oil wealth on this project. The post also covers the Catawba Nation's crypto-friendly economic zone and a planned floating city in the Maldives. Scott concludes with updates on other model city projects and makes predictions about the future of these developments. Shorter summary

Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent $1.4 million fine imposed on Polymarket by the CFTC and its implications for prediction markets. He critiques the US government's approach to prediction markets, arguing it hinders better decision-making. The post explores the potential of prediction markets, what's needed for their success, and the challenges they face. It also touches on the broader implications for cryptocurrency and its original vision of creating censorship-resistant financial products. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to a New York Times article about him, addressing what he sees as unfair claims and misrepresentations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to a recent New York Times article about him and his blog, which he perceives as negative and retaliatory. He addresses four main claims from the article, explaining why he feels they are unfair or misrepresented. Scott denies being aligned with Charles Murray's controversial views on race, clarifies his comments about feminists, defends his stance on women in tech, and addresses his alleged connections to right-wing figures in Silicon Valley. He expresses concern about the article's impact on his friends, family, and patients, and requests that people not contact him about the situation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Boston Review article on futurism for focusing on identity politics rather than substantive future predictions, arguing this approach trivializes important technological and societal developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article from Boston Review about futurism, highlighting five main issues. He argues that the article fails to make real arguments about the future, misunderstands the concept of Singularity, wrongly associates certain technologies with privilege, falsely portrays conflict between different futurist groups, and grossly underestimates the impact of potential future changes. Scott contrasts this with his view of futurism as a serious endeavor to improve the human condition and prepare for potentially massive changes. He expresses frustration that much current discourse about the future focuses on identity politics rather than substantive issues, drawing a parallel with an 18th-century futurist novel that was more concerned with religious prejudice than imagining actual changes. Shorter summary