Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and discusses comments on his previous post about the 'vibecession' (the disconnect between good economic indicators and negative public sentiment). The discussion covers when the vibecession actually started, whether economic complaints are proxies for cultural dissatisfaction, housing and inflation concerns, international comparisons (especially China's similar phenomenon despite massive economic growth), and concludes that vibes may be genuinely divorced from economic reality, though housing prices and partisan political feelings play significant roles. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

Scott examines why early Christianity's strategy of unconditional cooperation succeeded despite game theory predicting it should fail, and explores what this means for modern moral strategies. Longer summary

Scott explores the paradox of early Christianity's success despite following a COOPERATE-BOT strategy (always cooperate, even with enemies) rather than the game-theoretically optimal TIT-FOR-TAT strategy (cooperate first, then mirror opponent's last move). He analyzes historical examples like the Quakers and compares them to modern liberalism, then presents several theories for why COOPERATE-BOT might sometimes succeed against expectations. While he remains personally skeptical of fully embracing COOPERATE-BOT, he notes that history seems to favor extremely cooperative strategies more than game theory would predict. Shorter summary

Scott explores GABA-A receptor subunits, their effects, and how various drugs interact with them, discussing potential for more selective drug development. Longer summary

This post explores GABA-A receptor subunits and their role in psychiatric drugs and supplements. It explains the structure of GABA-A receptors, focusing on the alpha subunits and their associated effects. The post discusses how different drugs like benzodiazepines and zolpidem (Ambien) interact with these subunits, and mentions attempts to create more selective drugs. It also touches on the role of GABA receptors in alcohol's effects and the classification of Z-drugs. The author includes personal experiences with supplements claiming to have selective GABA modulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a study showing Concerta improves ADHD children's attention but not their learning, and speculates on the reasons behind this unexpected result. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a recent study on the effects of Concerta (a long-acting form of Ritalin) on ADHD children's learning in a summer camp setting. The study found that while Concerta improved attention, reduced disruptive behavior, and slightly improved test scores, it didn't significantly enhance learning of the course material. Scott explores potential reasons for this counterintuitive result, drawing parallels to other studies and speculating on the nature of learning and intelligence. He considers factors such as redundancy in teaching, innate intelligence limits, and the possibility of 'difficulty thresholds' for learning. The post ends with a speculative comparison to AI scaling laws, suggesting there might be human equivalents to parameters, training data, and compute in learning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why certain families produce multiple generations of high achievers, exploring genetic, environmental, and psychological factors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of highly accomplished families, such as the Huxleys, Darwins, and Curies, who have produced multiple generations of notable scientists, artists, and leaders. He discusses potential explanations for this trend, including privilege, genetics, and unique family environments. The post delves into the role of assortative mating, large family sizes, and the correlation between different types of talents. It also touches on the concept of a 'Hero License' - the idea that coming from an accomplished family might instill the confidence to pursue ambitious goals. Shorter summary

A critical review of Rutger Bregman's 'Humankind', analyzing its argument that human nature is fundamentally good, while highlighting both flaws and valuable insights in the book. Longer summary

This review critiques Rutger Bregman's book 'Humankind', which argues that human nature is fundamentally good. The reviewer analyzes Bregman's arguments, pointing out logical inconsistencies and cherry-picked data, while also acknowledging some valuable insights. The book covers topics such as human behavior during crises, the nature of empathy and power, and alternative approaches to management and democracy. The review concludes that while Bregman's thesis has flaws, his core message about trusting and respecting others more has merit. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's book 'The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work', summarizing Gottman's methods and then critically examining the scientific evidence behind them. The review begins with an overview of Gottman's reputation and claims, then details his approach to marital counseling, which focuses on liking your spouse, communication skills, and dealing with conflicts. Scott then investigates the statistical validity of Gottman's methods, finding significant issues with his claims of predictive accuracy and effectiveness. The review concludes with Scott's personal reflections on the challenges of relationship counseling and the nature of marital problems. Shorter summary

A vegetarian and meat-eater collaborate to analyze the impacts of eating meat, concluding that reduced consumption is beneficial but not as clear-cut as some might think. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest, where a vegetarian and a meat-eater investigate the ethical, health, and environmental impacts of eating meat. They explore animal consciousness, factory farming conditions, human happiness set points, health outcomes, environmental effects, and costs of switching diets. They conclude that reducing meat consumption, especially chicken, is beneficial overall, but the case is not as strong as some vegetarians might assume. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander revisits his stance on SSRIs, discussing new meta-analyses, broader trends in psychiatric medication efficacy, and potential explanations for the discrepancy between statistical and clinical observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander updates his views on SSRIs, addressing four key points: 1) A meta-analysis confirming the effect size of antidepressants is about 0.3. 2) The low effect size of SSRIs is part of a broader trend of low effect sizes in psychiatric medications. 3) A hypothesis to reconcile the small statistical effect with strong clinical observations, suggesting SSRIs might work very well for a subset of patients. 4) The possibility that SSRIs' efficacy for anxiety might contribute to their perceived effectiveness for depression. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Adam Grant's article on gender differences in tech, arguing Grant misrepresents evidence and ignores key factors like innate interest differences between men and women. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Adam Grant's article on gender differences, arguing that Grant misrepresents scientific evidence and ignores important factors like interest differences between men and women. Scott presents alternative explanations for gender imbalances in tech and other fields, emphasizing innate differences in interests rather than discrimination. He expresses concern about the hostile climate developing in tech around these issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that gender imbalances in certain movements are more likely due to inherent differences in interests between men and women rather than offensive attitudes, challenging the assumption that purging perceived sexism will achieve gender parity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges the assumption that gender imbalances in movements like libertarianism are primarily due to offensive attitudes. He presents examples of groups with poor gender equality reputations that still have balanced gender ratios, such as Trump voters and the Catholic Church. He then explores research on gender differences in interests, particularly the 'interest in things vs. people' dimension, which shows a large difference between men and women. Scott suggests these underlying differences in interests and approaches to morality (e.g., utilitarianism) may better explain gender imbalances in certain fields and movements. He argues that attempts to achieve gender balance by purging perceived sexism may be misguided and could lead to unnecessary conflict within these communities. The post concludes by emphasizing the need to fight harassment and build a better world, but not with the expectation that it will automatically lead to gender parity in all fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and insights from the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI, covering various aspects of AI development, risks, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI. The conference brought together diverse experts to discuss AI risks, from technological unemployment to superintelligence. Key points include: the normalization of AI safety research, economists' views on technological unemployment, proposed solutions like retraining workers, advances in AI goal alignment research, improvements in AlphaGo and its implications, issues with AI transparency, political considerations in AI development, and debates on ethical AI principles. Scott notes the star-studded attendance and the surreal experience of discussing crucial AI topics with leading experts in the field. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting news items and studies spanning history, science, politics, and technology, with commentary on each item's significance or irony. Longer summary

A diverse collection of interesting links and news items covering various topics. The post includes historical curiosities (like Merv being the world's largest city), scientific research (including studies about genetic risk for sugar consumption and school effects), political developments (like Steve Bannon's profile and Trump's microphone issues), technology news (AI partnership between tech giants), and social issues (discrimination studies and immigration effects). The post maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious subjects, often adding ironic observations about how things work. Shorter summary