Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary

Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Progress Studies Conference, which focused on various technological and social advancements. The conference covered topics such as energy (particularly solar and nuclear power), politics and regulation, AI, YIMBY movement, self-driving cars, and other areas of potential progress. The overall mood was optimistic about recent developments in these fields, with many speakers highlighting how regulatory changes could accelerate progress. Scott notes that while the conference itself may not be directly responsible for recent advances, it reflects a growing awareness of the importance of technological progress and the need to address regulatory barriers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the evolving narrative around a news story about ivermectin overdoses in Oklahoma hospitals, illustrating how cognitive biases and media dynamics can distort information. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a news story about ivermectin overdoses overwhelming Oklahoma hospitals, showing how it evolved from a local news report to international coverage, and was then seemingly debunked. He uses this as a case study in cognitive biases, media narratives, and the difficulty of determining truth in polarized situations. The post is structured in three parts, each revealing a new layer of complexity and uncertainty in the story. Scott emphasizes the importance of skepticism and checking sources, even (or especially) when a story confirms one's existing beliefs. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares the San Francisco Gay Pride Parade to traditional civic and religious celebrations, arguing that it has evolved into a form of civil religion similar to American patriotism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his experience at the San Francisco Gay Pride Parade, drawing parallels between it and traditional civic and religious celebrations like Easter in Guatemala and Fourth of July parades in America. He argues that the Gay Pride celebration has evolved into a form of civil religion, similar to how American patriotism has functioned as a civil religion. The post explores how the gay rights movement, which started as a counterculture, has become mainstream and incorporated many elements of traditional civic celebrations. Scott suggests that this evolution mirrors the historical development of other religions, particularly Christianity, which also started as a countercultural movement before becoming an established institution. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents counterarguments to YIMBY housing policies, questioning their effectiveness and considering NIMBY perspectives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander steelmans the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) position against YIMBYism (Yes In My Back Yard) in housing policy debates, particularly focused on San Francisco. He argues that: 1) San Francisco's housing growth rate is not uniquely low, 2) Building more housing may not significantly lower rents, 3) Increased housing supply could potentially increase rents due to agglomeration effects, 4) NIMBYs have valid reasons to oppose development, and 5) Increasing housing supply might trap more people in an undesirable equilibrium. He concludes by acknowledging the lack of clear alternatives but expressing skepticism that simply building more housing will solve the problem. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

The post uses a fabricated narrative about cardiologists to illustrate the Chinese Robber Fallacy and its role in media bias, emphasizing the importance of context in interpreting negative stories about any group. Longer summary

This post discusses the Chinese Robber Fallacy and its implications for media bias. The author begins with a satirical section presenting numerous examples of cardiologists committing various crimes and unethical acts, creating the impression of widespread issues in the profession. The second part reveals this as a demonstration of how easy it is to create a false narrative about any group using selective examples. The author then explores how this fallacy applies to media coverage of issues like police brutality and sexism in tech, emphasizing the importance of understanding base rates and population sizes when interpreting such stories. The post concludes by revealing that the initial section about cardiologists was entirely fabricated to illustrate the point. Shorter summary