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Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future.
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.