A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny. Longer summary

Sasha Putilin received an ACX grant to replicate a 2023 study claiming that flickering lights synchronized to individual brain rhythms could boost learning speed threefold. The $32,000 replication with 12 participants (versus 80 in the original) found no such effect. Upon examining the original data more closely, Putilin discovered the apparent effect was driven entirely by a few participants with large negative learning rates (getting worse over time) who happened to all be in one experimental group. The original study had obscured this pattern by presenting averaged data rather than individual results. Putilin argues this exemplifies 'cargo-cult statistics' where researchers mechanically apply statistical rituals without critically examining underlying data. The post concludes by suggesting AI tools are democratizing meta-science, enabling anyone to audit published research that previously required expert-level effort. Shorter summary

Scott examines whether reported increases in "crime" actually reflect concerns about "disorder" (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments), finding that most disorder metrics are either stable or down from historical highs, contradicting narratives of societal collapse. Longer summary

Scott investigates the theory that public concern about rising crime is actually proxy concern about rising disorder (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments, boom boxes). He systematically examines data for each type of disorder and finds that most are either down from historical highs or only modestly increased from recent lows. Litter is down since the 1970s, graffiti is unclear but likely down in most places, shoplifting is up 20% from lows but still below 1990s levels, and homelessness is up 25% but equal to 1990s levels. He proposes four theories for why people perceive disorder as rising: the small 2020 bump, white people returning to cities through gentrification, romanticization of the unique 1930s-1960s crime minimum, and different forms of disorder in past versus present. Scott concludes by distinguishing between specific, evidence-based concerns about particular problems versus vague civilizational collapse narratives, arguing the former is both more accurate and more conducive to normal life. Shorter summary

Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the 'vibecession' - the paradox where economic indicators show improvement but consumer sentiment is terrible, particularly among young people who feel permanently locked out of opportunity. He systematically examines various proposed explanations including declining wages, housing costs, inflation miscalculation, inequality, and debt, finding that none fully explain the phenomenon. His analysis suggests the crisis may be partly real (increased effort required for same outcomes, concentration of jobs in expensive cities, recent mortgage increases) but also partly driven by increasingly negative media coverage and changing consumption patterns toward more conspiratorial sources. Shorter summary

A detailed insider look at Phase I clinical drug trials, revealing how the system's structure encourages participants to routinely lie about their medical history and symptoms to continue participating. Longer summary

This review explores Phase I clinical pharmaceutical trials from a participant's perspective, detailing the process, the people involved, and systemic issues. The author explains how participants are recruited, screened, and monitored during trials, then describes the peculiar demographics of regular trial participants. A key focus is how the system's incentives encourage dishonesty: participants routinely lie about medical history and symptoms because being truthful often leads to disqualification from future trials. The author concludes that while this systemic dishonesty probably doesn't catastrophically compromise drug safety, it does make the research pipeline less effective than it could be. Shorter summary

Scott investigates AI psychosis through historical analogies and a reader survey, finding it affects roughly 1 in 10,000 to 100,000 people yearly, with most cases involving pre-existing risk factors. Longer summary

Scott examines the phenomenon of AI psychosis, where people allegedly go crazy after extensive chatbot interactions. He explores various analogies and precedents, including the 1990s Russian TV hoax about Lenin being a mushroom, social media-induced conspiracy theories like QAnon, and the concept of folie à deux. Through a survey of his blog readers, he estimates the yearly incidence of AI psychosis at 1/10,000 (loose definition) to 1/100,000 (strict definition). The analysis suggests that most cases involve people who were already psychotic or had risk factors, with only about 10% being cases of previously healthy people developing full psychosis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores correlations between PMS symptoms and various beliefs and traits, finding significant connections that leave him puzzled. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses survey results related to PMS symptoms and their correlations with various beliefs and traits. He attempts to replicate findings from Aella's Twitter polls, which showed connections between PMS and belief in the supernatural, as well as neuroticism. Using data from the ACX survey, Scott finds significant correlations between PMS symptoms and belief in the supernatural, as well as anxiety levels. He explores potential explanations, including cultural influences and hormonal factors, and presents additional correlations found in the survey data. The post ends with Scott expressing confusion about the findings and inviting readers to replicate his work using the publicly available survey results. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the optimal dosage of Lexapro, comparing it to other antidepressants and exploring the reasons behind its effectiveness at lower doses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of the right dose for Lexapro (escitalopram), an antidepressant. He examines official recommendations, compares Lexapro to other SSRIs, and investigates why Lexapro might be effective at lower doses. The post delves into studies on antidepressant dosing, the unique properties of Lexapro, and the potential benefits and risks of higher doses. Scott concludes that while there's no strong evidence for high doses of any antidepressant being more effective, prescribing higher doses of Lexapro might be as safe as other SSRIs and potentially more beneficial in some cases. Shorter summary

Scott examines the relationship between sleep, synaptic homeostasis, and depression, exploring how sleep deprivation temporarily alleviates depression symptoms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a phenomenon where sleep deprivation temporarily alleviates depression, and explores the potential connection between sleep, synaptic homeostasis, and depression. He reviews the synaptic homeostasis hypothesis of sleep, which suggests that sleep helps renormalize synaptic connections, and connects this to research indicating that depression involves a deficit of synapses. The post then delves into various subtopics related to this theory, including the roles of REM and non-REM sleep, the effects of TMS and electroconvulsive therapy, and potential connections to circadian rhythms and bipolar disorder. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander conducts a personal randomized controlled trial of a sleep supplement, finding no significant effect over placebo, but gains insights into his sleep patterns. Longer summary

Scott Alexander conducts a personal randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of a sleep supplement called Sleep Support. Initially, he experiences a dramatic improvement in his sleep patterns, but decides to rigorously test this effect. He designs an experiment using placebo pills and blind administration over 24 nights. Surprisingly, the results show no significant difference between the Sleep Support and placebo nights in terms of sleep duration, wake-up time, or subjective measures. Scott concludes that his initial perceived improvement was likely due to the placebo effect and the act of not checking the clock upon waking. Despite the supplement not outperforming placebo, Scott considers the experiment a success as it led to improved sleep habits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes birth order effects in SSC readers, finding strong effects for sibling age gaps of 1-7 years, with a significant drop-off after 7 years. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates birth order effects using data from the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey. He finds that firstborns are overrepresented among SSC readers, replicating previous findings. The study focuses on how age gaps between siblings affect this birth order effect. Results show strong effects for age gaps of 1-7 years, with a dramatic decrease for gaps larger than 7 years. Scott discusses possible explanations for these findings, including intra-family competition and parental investment hypotheses. He notes that the results don't seem consistent with some other proposed mechanisms like maternal antibodies or vitamin deficiencies. The post ends with a call for further replication and expansion of these results. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander outlines 18 preregistered investigations for the 2019 SSC survey, covering topics from psychiatric medication effects to birth order influences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander preregisters 18 investigations for the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey. These investigations cover a wide range of topics including psychiatric medication effects, social class perceptions, life history strategies, gender bias, imposter syndrome, and birth order effects. The post begins by urging readers to take the survey before reading further to avoid bias. Each investigation is briefly described, often including the reasoning behind it or the specific analysis method to be used. The investigations touch on fields such as psychology, sociology, psychiatry, and genetics, reflecting the diverse interests of the blog's audience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander revisits his stance on SSRIs, discussing new meta-analyses, broader trends in psychiatric medication efficacy, and potential explanations for the discrepancy between statistical and clinical observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander updates his views on SSRIs, addressing four key points: 1) A meta-analysis confirming the effect size of antidepressants is about 0.3. 2) The low effect size of SSRIs is part of a broader trend of low effect sizes in psychiatric medications. 3) A hypothesis to reconcile the small statistical effect with strong clinical observations, suggesting SSRIs might work very well for a subset of patients. 4) The possibility that SSRIs' efficacy for anxiety might contribute to their perceived effectiveness for depression. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his frustrating attempt to conduct a study on a bipolar disorder screening test, highlighting the excessive bureaucratic hurdles that ultimately led to the study's abandonment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his frustrating experience trying to conduct a study on the validity of a bipolar disorder screening test. He encounters numerous bureaucratic hurdles from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), including issues with consent forms, data security, and patient privacy. Despite his best efforts and those of his colleagues, the study is eventually abandoned due to the overwhelming regulatory burden. Scott reflects on how this experience has made him skeptical of the current research approval process, arguing that it disproportionately hinders small-scale, independent researchers while favoring large institutions. He concludes by expressing hope for reform in the scientific research process to make it more accessible and efficient. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, politics, economics, and culture, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting stories and studies. The topics range widely from scientific studies about CBT efficacy and homosexuality in fruit flies, to political events like the Baltimore riots aftermath and FIFA scandals, to cultural curiosities like Chinese translations of Finnegan's Wake and crash blossom headlines. The post includes some interesting technology stories like AI safety and Russian smart billboards, economic studies about education and art museums, and various sociological studies and experiments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a roundup of recent medical and psychological studies, covering topics from UV light exposure to belief in science during stress. Longer summary

This post is a roundup of recent medical and psychological studies from June. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics, including UV light exposure benefits, gut microbiota research, obesity factors, iodine deficiency effects on intelligence, Medicare cost variations, ketamine for depression, hypothermia caps for chemotherapy patients, cruise ships as alternatives to assisted living, peer review effectiveness, genetic risk for schizophrenia and IQ, obesity rates in lesbians, oxytocin and pair-bonding, and belief in science during stressful situations. The tone is informative with occasional humorous or sarcastic comments. Shorter summary