Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance.

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.

Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits.

Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.

Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative.

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts.