A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary

The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary

Scott explains why Midjourney's new ultrasound tomography scanner, despite being technologically interesting, faces major medical limitations and is unlikely to replace existing imaging methods or enable useful whole-body screening without significant future AI improvements. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Midjourney's announcement of a new medical scanner that uses ultrasound tomography to create 3D images of the body. He explains why, despite being technologically interesting, the scanner faces significant medical limitations: ultrasound cannot penetrate bone or air, limiting its usefulness compared to existing MRI and CT scans; it can't replace portable bedside ultrasound due to requiring patients to be submerged in water; and whole-body screening scans (even with existing superior MRI technology) are currently not recommended by medical consensus due to false positives causing more harm than benefit. Scott suggests the technology might become more viable if future AI advances dramatically improve ultrasound interpretation, wave dynamics for imaging through bone, and the ability to distinguish dangerous findings from harmless abnormalities. The post includes an appendix with Twitter responses from radiologists (universally negative) and other commenters (more optimistic), discussing potential applications like body composition measurement and the challenges of medical screening. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new genetic study on missing heritability that both hereditarians and nurturists claim vindicates their position, concluding that despite the study's advances, the fundamental debate over how heritable traits like IQ actually are remains unresolved. Longer summary

This post discusses a new genetic study that attempted to resolve the "missing heritability" debate - the gap between high heritability estimates from twin studies (50-80%) and low estimates from molecular genetic studies (10-20%). The study used whole-genome sequencing to include rare genetic variants and found they could account for about 88% of expected heritability, but the actual heritability estimates themselves were only medium (30-40%). Both hereditarians and nurturists claimed victory: hereditarians because the gap was closed (proving the genes exist), nurturists because the total heritability found was still lower than twin studies suggested. Scott examines both sides' arguments, including measurement error corrections and various confounders, and concludes that despite everyone's claims, the debate remains fundamentally unresolved as different methods continue producing different estimates with no clear explanation why. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary

A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

A review of the synaptic plasticity and memory hypothesis arguing that it is insufficient to explain memory, and proposing a broader cellular processes and memory hypothesis that includes molecular and intracellular mechanisms. Longer summary

The post reviews the synaptic plasticity and memory (SPM) hypothesis, which claims that learning and memory are stored in changes to synaptic weights between neurons. Through several compelling examples, from cannibalism rituals to heart transplant stories and single-cell learning, the author argues that while the SPM hypothesis has been productive, it is incomplete and partially wrong. The post presents evidence that memory can be stored through non-synaptic mechanisms, and proposes an alternative called the cellular processes and memory (CPM) hypothesis, which suggests memory storage involves multiple molecular and intracellular processes beyond just synaptic weights. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of 61 interesting links, spanning topics from AI development and scientific studies to cultural observations and policy discussions. The post covers diverse subjects including GPT-5's reception, genetic research, religious demographics, urban development, mental health studies, and various scientific discoveries. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of these items, often connecting them to broader themes or offering his perspective on controversial issues. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary

A detailed review of a 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, examining how its limitations were overlooked and shaped decades of potentially misguided Alzheimer's research. Longer summary

The post reviews a landmark 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, analyzing how its technical achievements and limitations shaped three decades of Alzheimer's research. The author examines the paper's methodology, results, and claims, showing how the model's flaws - including extreme protein overexpression and lack of key disease features - were overlooked in favor of a compelling but incomplete amyloid cascade hypothesis, leading to years of failed drug development and missed opportunities to explore alternative approaches. Shorter summary

This review explores how schools are primarily designed to maximize motivation rather than learning, explaining why age-graded classrooms and seemingly inefficient group learning have persisted despite numerous attempts at reform. Longer summary

The post examines why schools have maintained their traditional structure of age-graded classrooms where all students learn the same content, despite its apparent inefficiencies. The author argues that schools are designed primarily to maximize motivation rather than learning, using conformity as a key tool. Through analyzing various attempts at personalized learning and their consistent failures to scale beyond about 5% of students, the post explains how students fall into three categories: no-structure learners, low-structure learners, and high-structure learners. The author concludes that while the current system is far from perfect, it has proven more effective at scale than any alternatives, predicting that despite continued attempts at reform, the basic structure of schooling will remain unchanged. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments and criticism on his earlier post about 'Missing Heritability', discussing issues like gene-environment interactions, sequencing technology limitations, and the use of polygenic scores across ancestry groups. Longer summary

This post compiles and responds to notable comments on Scott's earlier post about 'Missing Heritability'. The post is structured in four sections, starting with responses from experts named in the original post, particularly Sasha Gusev who critiques the treatment of gene-environment interactions and cross-population polygenic scores. The second section features detailed technical comments from knowledgeable readers about topics like genetic interactions and sequencing technology limitations. The third section addresses specific corrections to the original post, while the final section covers various other interesting comments and discussions. Throughout, Scott engages with the criticisms and new perspectives while maintaining his original position on most key points. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander refutes Stephen Skolnick's theory that schizophrenia is caused by gut microbes rather than genetics, showing why the evidence better supports schizophrenia being a complex genetic neurodevelopmental disorder. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Stephen Skolnick's theory that schizophrenia is caused by gut microbes rather than genetics. He systematically dismantles Skolnick's arguments by showing that twin concordance rates are exactly what we'd expect from a genetic condition, that microbiological inheritance patterns don't match schizophrenia inheritance patterns, and that the gut bacteria evidence cited was likely caused by antipsychotic medication rather than being causative. He concludes by explaining why schizophrenia is best understood as a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with multiple contributing factors rather than having a single cause. Shorter summary

Scott explores the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies show traits like IQ and educational attainment are highly heritable but newer genomic methods find much lower heritability, analyzing various potential explanations for this discrepancy. Longer summary

The post examines the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies consistently show behavioral traits like IQ and educational attainment are substantially heritable (around 40-60%), while newer genomic methods find much lower heritability (around 15-20%). Scott reviews the history of behavioral genetics research, explains various study methodologies and their potential biases, and analyzes different hypotheses for this discrepancy. He examines whether twin studies might be flawed, whether newer methods might be missing important genetic effects, and whether educational attainment might be an unusually problematic trait to study. While acknowledging remaining mysteries, he tentatively concludes that twin studies are probably largely correct and that newer methods may be missing rare variants and genetic interactions. Shorter summary

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 41 links and news items, covering topics from science and politics to history and technology, with brief commentaries and insights. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items covering a wide range of topics. The items include scientific studies, political developments, historical anecdotes, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander presents these with brief commentaries, often adding his own insights or expressing skepticism about certain claims. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott pointing out interesting connections or implications of the information presented. Shorter summary

Daniel Böttger proposes a new theory of consciousness as recursive reflections of neural oscillations, explaining qualia and suggesting experimental tests. Longer summary

This guest post by Daniel Böttger proposes a new theory of consciousness, describing it as recursive reflections of neural oscillations. The theory posits that qualia arise from the internal processing of information within oscillating neural patterns, which can reflect on themselves. The post explains how this theory accounts for various characteristics of qualia and consciousness, and suggests ways to test the theory using EEG source analysis. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, discussing its exploration of prion diseases and their impact, with updated perspectives on the book's conclusions. Longer summary

This review discusses 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, a book about prion diseases published in 2006. The review covers the book's exploration of various prion diseases, including fatal familial insomnia, kuru, mad cow disease, and chronic wasting disease. It highlights the book's focus on the historical, scientific, and cultural aspects of these diseases, as well as the key figures involved in prion research. The reviewer also provides updated information and critiques some of the book's conclusions in light of more recent research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a study challenging ketamine's effectiveness as an antidepressant, discussing potential confounding factors and maintaining his belief in ketamine's utility despite the study's results. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a recent study on ketamine's effectiveness as an antidepressant when administered during anesthesia. The study found no significant difference between ketamine and placebo groups, challenging previous beliefs about ketamine's antidepressant properties. Scott analyzes the study's methodology and results, pointing out several factors that might have influenced the outcomes, such as the strong placebo effect, the antidepressant properties of anesthetics, and the potential impact of surgery on depression symptoms. He concludes that while the study raises questions, it doesn't completely invalidate previous research showing ketamine's effectiveness, and he maintains his belief in ketamine's potential as an antidepressant for some patients. Shorter summary

Scott provides updates and reader responses to his previous 'Quests and Requests' article, addressing the status and potential of each proposed project. Longer summary

This is a follow-up post to Scott's 'Quests and Requests' article, addressing the current status and responses to each of the eight projects proposed. Scott provides updates, shares relevant comments and offers from readers, and gives his thoughts on the progress and potential of each quest. He also clarifies his intentions and expectations for these projects, encouraging self-organization among interested parties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends the concept of automaticity in psychology, arguing that core cognitive biases and priming effects are real, while acknowledging some claims have been overstated. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to a critique of automaticity in psychology, arguing that while some claims about cognitive biases and priming have been overstated, the core concepts are real and well-replicated. He provides examples of cognitive biases, priming effects, and nudges that have strong evidence behind them. Scott compares cognitive biases to optical illusions - real phenomena that affect our perception, but not in ways that make us completely helpless. He argues that automaticity is actually a very old idea about human nature, found in various philosophical and religious traditions. While we shouldn't see ourselves as completely controlled by unconscious forces, Scott suggests that accepting some level of automaticity in our cognition is both realistic and not necessarily problematic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with an analysis of the LK-99 superconductor prediction markets, suggesting they were overly optimistic due to media hype rather than expert opinion. The author then discusses the Salem/CSPI prediction market tournament, highlighting how the top performers used various strategies beyond just predictive accuracy. The post introduces the concept of prediction portfolios, which allow betting on broader trends rather than specific outcomes. It also mentions a new prediction market for flight delays called Wingman.WTF. Finally, the post reviews current political prediction markets and other forecasting-related news. Shorter summary

The review of 'The Mind of a Bee' examines the cognitive abilities of bees, raising questions about their intelligence and potential consciousness. Longer summary

This book review of 'The Mind of a Bee' by Lars Chittka explores the complex cognitive abilities of bees, discussing their behaviors, brain structure, and potential for consciousness. The review covers topics such as the waggle dance, honeycomb construction, brain waves, and various experiments demonstrating bees' problem-solving skills. While not definitively answering whether bees are 'smart' or conscious, the review highlights the complexity of bee cognition and the challenges in studying animal intelligence. Shorter summary