Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends the concept of automaticity in psychology, arguing that core cognitive biases and priming effects are real, while acknowledging some claims have been overstated. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to a critique of automaticity in psychology, arguing that while some claims about cognitive biases and priming have been overstated, the core concepts are real and well-replicated. He provides examples of cognitive biases, priming effects, and nudges that have strong evidence behind them. Scott compares cognitive biases to optical illusions - real phenomena that affect our perception, but not in ways that make us completely helpless. He argues that automaticity is actually a very old idea about human nature, found in various philosophical and religious traditions. While we shouldn't see ourselves as completely controlled by unconscious forces, Scott suggests that accepting some level of automaticity in our cognition is both realistic and not necessarily problematic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of John von Neumann, exploring the mathematician's life, genius, and views on existential risk from technology. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man From The Future', a biography of John von Neumann by Ananyo Bhattacharya. It covers von Neumann's early life and education in Hungary, his extraordinary intellectual abilities, his work on various scientific fields, and his views on existential risks from technology. The review explores theories about why so many geniuses emerged from Hungary in the early 20th century, details von Neumann's personality and social skills, and discusses his controversial views on nuclear war. It ends with von Neumann's thoughts on how humanity might survive the dangers of rapid technological progress. Shorter summary

A comprehensive review of 'The Castrato' by Martha Feldman, exploring the history, biology, and social impact of castrati singers in Italy. Longer summary

This book review explores 'The Castrato' by Martha Feldman, detailing the history of castrati singers in Italy from the 16th to 19th centuries. It covers their origins, biology, vocal abilities, social status, and relationships with the church and aristocracy. The review also draws parallels to modern practices and speculates on potential future implications of human modification for entertainment or power. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Anti-Politics Machine' by James Ferguson, discussing its critique of development projects and implications for Effective Altruism. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Anti-Politics Machine' by James Ferguson, which critiques development projects in Lesotho. The reviewer highlights two key ideas: the concept of 'development discourse' that leads to misinterpretation of local contexts, and the 'anti-politics machine' critique of technocratic decision-making. The review discusses how these ideas apply to modern development economics and Effective Altruism, suggesting the need for more qualitative research, emphasis on local context, and consideration of political implications in charitable work. Shorter summary

A book review examining the history of Nature journal and how it became one of the most prestigious scientific publications. Longer summary

This book review explores the history of the scientific journal Nature, focusing on how it gained its prestigious status. The review is structured in three parts: Nature's origins in 1869, its first century of building reputation, and the shift towards prestige in the 1970s. The author argues that Nature's success was due to factors like publication speed, network effects, and survival through financial difficulties. The review also discusses the broader context of scientific publishing and the rise of prestige in the 1970s, suggesting that the founding of the journal Cell in 1974 may have been a pivotal moment in this shift. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet examines whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax on to tenants, concluding that empirical evidence supports they cannot. Longer summary

This article, written by Lars Doucet, is the second part of a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on the question of whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax (LVT) on to tenants. The article presents both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence, primarily from a 2017 Danish study, to support the claim that LVT cannot be passed on to tenants. It also reviews and critiques opposing viewpoints, ultimately concluding that the evidence strongly supports the full capitalization of LVT into land prices, meaning landlords bear the cost of the tax. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Julian Jaynes' controversial theory that ancient people lacked consciousness and instead heard hallucinated voices of gods, critiquing some aspects while finding value in the idea of theory of mind as culturally constructed. Longer summary

Scott reviews Julian Jaynes' book 'The Origin Of Consciousness In The Breakdown Of The Bicameral Mind'. The book argues that ancient people lacked theory of mind and instead heard hallucinatory voices they interpreted as gods giving them commands. Jaynes traces the development of consciousness through ancient texts, showing how mental processes were described differently before and after this shift. Scott critiques some aspects of Jaynes' theory but finds value in the idea that theory of mind is culturally constructed and can vary significantly between groups. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from science and politics to economics and culture, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, economic trends, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on many of the links, often adding context or his own thoughts. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with a focus on sharing intriguing information across diverse fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the Dark Ages in Western Europe (500-1000 AD) did occur, presenting evidence of economic, demographic, and intellectual decline during this period. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the claim that the Dark Ages never happened, presenting evidence for a significant decline in Western Europe from 500-1000 AD. He addresses common counterarguments, showing how they often rely on isolated demands for rigor or misunderstandings of the term. Scott provides data on economic decline, population decrease, and reduced intellectual output during this period. He acknowledges that the topic is complex and can be politicized, but ultimately concludes that the evidence supports the existence of a 'Dark Age' in Western Europe. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary

An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between economic development, social changes, and happiness, concluding that happiness levels can change over time but are more influenced by intangible factors than by economic growth. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the relationship between economic development, social changes, and happiness levels across different countries and groups. He explores Scott Sumner's question of whether anything matters for happiness, given that many countries show no increase in happiness despite significant improvements. Alexander examines data on African-Americans, women, and various countries, finding that happiness levels do change in response to social trends, even over decades. He notes that economic growth may increase happiness, but other factors like freedom and democracy seem more influential. The post concludes that happiness can change, but intangible factors are likely more important than money, even when lifting countries out of poverty. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, politics and culture, with Scott's commentary on each topic. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics. It starts with interesting historical anecdotes like Kipling designing an engineering ritual and the passage of the Habeas Corpus Act. It covers recent news and developments in politics, technology, and science, including Elon Musk's SpaceX ships, cancer therapies, and climate change agreements. The post also discusses several academic papers and studies, addressing topics like citation practices, telomere research, and financial returns to education. Throughout, Scott maintains a skeptical eye toward overblown claims and provides commentary on various social and political developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander cautions against basing opinions on limited research, using examples from medicine and economics to show how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander warns against relying on a single study or a limited selection of studies to form opinions on complex issues. He illustrates this with examples from medical research and the minimum wage debate, showing how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. The post emphasizes the importance of considering the full body of evidence, including meta-analyses and expert opinions, while also being aware of potential biases in research and reporting. Scott concludes by advocating for skepticism and thorough investigation when evaluating claims backed by scientific studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Ezra Klein's argument that white Americans have benefited from compound interest on wealth stolen from African Americans, citing evidence that wealth rarely persists across generations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article by Ezra Klein on Vox about compound interest and reparations. Klein argues that white Americans have benefited from centuries of compound interest on wealth stolen from African Americans. Scott challenges this view with two main arguments. First, he points out that former slave-owning states are now among the poorest in the US. Second, he cites research showing that wealth rarely persists across more than a few generations. Scott discusses studies on social mobility and a Cherokee land lottery to support his point that family wealth tends to regress to the mean over time. He concludes by criticizing Vox for oversimplifying a complex issue and ignoring important research in economics and sociology. Shorter summary