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17 posts found
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Jan 16, 2026
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The Dilbert Afterlife

79 min • 12,177 words • 893 comments • 2,069 likes • podcast (71 min)
Scott Alexander eulogizes Scott Adams (Dilbert creator), analyzing his life as a tension between being a brilliant humorist and desperately wanting to be seen as more, leading through failed business ventures and self-help philosophies to eventual cancellation and death. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reflects on the life and career of Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert), who died of prostate cancer at 68. The post traces Adams' journey from brilliant comic artist to failed businessman, religious philosopher, self-help guru, and ultimately Trump supporter, exploring how his lifelong tension between being genuinely clever and his inability to succeed outside of cartooning drove increasingly desperate attempts to prove himself. Alexander portrays Adams as someone who achieved world-class success in humor but couldn't accept that limitation, leading him through various failed ventures (restaurants, burritos, technology startups) and eventually into right-wing politics and cancellation. Despite the criticism, Alexander acknowledges Adams as a personal influence and teacher, ending with genuine tribute to someone who helped many people even while struggling with his own contradictions. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2025
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Links For October 2025

42 min • 6,423 words • 803 comments • 211 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary
Oct 13, 2025
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ACX Grants Results 2025

32 min • 4,808 words • 266 comments • 196 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants round, awarding $1.5 million to 42 projects out of 654 applications, covering areas from genetic engineering and disease prevention to AI safety and educational reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants program, which received 654 applications and funded 42 projects across diverse areas including global health, AI safety, metascience, animal welfare, and development economics. The grants range from $5,000 to $150,000 and support initiatives like genetically engineered nutritious corn, screwworm eradication, lead-acid battery recycling programs, organ donation improvement, AI bias research, and various biosecurity and pandemic prevention projects. Scott thanks the funders, Manifund team, and numerous expert evaluators who helped assess applications, and notes that some projects remain in stealth mode. The post concludes with extensive credits to contributors and mentions that the next grants round will likely occur in late 2026 or early 2027. Shorter summary
Sep 04, 2025
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Links For September 2025

54 min • 8,283 words • 918 comments • 233 likes • podcast (45 min)
Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares a collection of 61 interesting links, spanning topics from AI development and scientific studies to cultural observations and policy discussions. The post covers diverse subjects including GPT-5's reception, genetic research, religious demographics, urban development, mental health studies, and various scientific discoveries. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of these items, often connecting them to broader themes or offering his perspective on controversial issues. Shorter summary
Mar 26, 2025
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"Deros And The Ur-Abduction" In Asterisk

2 min • 265 words • 115 comments • 91 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott explores the recurring myth of evil underground humanoids across different cultures and time periods in an article written for Asterisk magazine's 'Weird' themed issue. Longer summary
Scott writes in Asterisk magazine about the recurring theme of evil underground humanoids kidnapping and torturing people, linking it from ancient Irish myths to modern conspiracy theories. He explores Richard Shaver's stories about 'deros' (evil cave dwarves) and connects them to similar mythological patterns across cultures and time periods. The post introduces the concept of an 'ur-abduction' narrative and examines why this specific theme appears so consistently throughout human storytelling. Shorter summary
Mar 19, 2025
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Misophonia: Beyond Sensory Sensitivity

13 min • 1,960 words • 269 comments • 371 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott analyzes misophonia through new research and personal experience, suggesting it might be maintained by complex emotional and social networks rather than pure sound sensitivity. Longer summary
Scott discusses misophonia, a condition where people are extremely intolerant of certain sounds, through the lens of new research suggesting it's not just about sensory sensitivity. He explores evidence showing misophonia persists in deaf people, depends heavily on context, and is often worse with close relations. Through his personal experience with the condition, he proposes that misophonia might be sustained by a complex network of anger, social context, and identity, rather than pure sensory overload. He connects this to his previous work on trapped priors, suggesting the condition persists because these networks prevent normal updating of emotional responses. Shorter summary
Jan 17, 2025
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Links For January 2025

35 min • 5,422 words • 875 comments • 236 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary
This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary
Jan 01, 2025
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H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

34 min • 5,141 words • 224 comments • 423 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of H5N1 bird flu and its pandemic potential. He starts by explaining what flu is and its history of pandemics, then focuses on H5N1's current situation, analyzing prediction market estimates for its chances of causing a pandemic. The post examines different mortality scenarios and their likelihood, using data from past flu pandemics and current cases. It concludes with specific predictions about H5N1's future impact, suggesting a 5% chance of human pandemic in the next year, with varying degrees of severity if it occurs. Shorter summary
Dec 05, 2024
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Friendly And Hostile Analogies For Taste

18 min • 2,744 words • 802 comments • 388 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott presents and analyzes seven different analogies to understand whether sophisticated artistic taste is truly superior to popular taste, ultimately concluding it's most like a system of arbitrary rules with post-hoc justifications. Longer summary
Scott examines different analogies for understanding artistic taste and whether sophisticates' judgment of art can be considered superior to popular taste. He presents seven different analogies: taste as physics (based on objective truths), as priesthood (arbitrary rules), as priesthood with semi-fake justifications (like fashion rules), as genuinely justified rules, as desensitization (like porn), as fashion signaling, and as grammar (arbitrary but felt deeply). After analyzing these analogies, Scott argues that artistic taste is most like a priesthood with semi-fake justifications, citing evidence like taste's rapid changes over time, disagreement among experts, political influences, and failed blind tests. Shorter summary
Nov 07, 2024
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Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

20 min • 2,993 words • 649 comments • 248 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander congratulates Polymarket for their success during the recent election, but argues that their Trump shares were mispriced by about ten cents. He uses Bayes' Theorem to explain why Trump's victory doesn't significantly vindicate Polymarket's numbers. Scott compares the situation to non-money forecasters like Metaculus versus real-money markets like Polymarket, explaining why he initially trusted the former more. He discusses the impact of a large bettor named Theo on Polymarket's odds and addresses several objections to his argument. Scott concludes that while prediction markets are valuable, they can sometimes fail and require critical thinking. Shorter summary
Oct 29, 2024
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The Case Against California Proposition 36

19 min • 2,857 words • 508 comments • 130 likes • podcast (17 min)
The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions. Longer summary
This post argues against California's Proposition 36, which aims to increase mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. The author contends that while Prop 36 will certainly imprison more people, it won't effectively combat crime. The post analyzes the proposition's impact on drug-related offenses and theft, using data to show that increased sentencing doesn't correlate with reduced drug use or crime rates. It also points out the lack of treatment resources required by the proposition and the potential negative impact on existing crime prevention programs. The author suggests that instead of longer sentences, California should focus on targeted interventions, increased police resources, and expanding treatment options for drug addiction. Shorter summary
Sep 12, 2024
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Links For September 2024

32 min • 4,892 words • 990 comments • 215 likes • podcast (29 min)
A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary
May 08, 2024
acx
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Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill

19 min • 2,928 words • 238 comments • 99 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes California's AI regulation bill SB1047, finding it reasonably well-designed despite misrepresentations, and ultimately supporting it as a compromise between safety and innovation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines California's proposed AI regulation bill SB1047, which aims to regulate large AI models. He explains that contrary to some misrepresentations, the bill is reasonably well-designed, applying only to very large models and focusing on preventing catastrophic harms like creating weapons of mass destruction or major cyberattacks. Scott addresses various objections to the bill, dismissing some as based on misunderstandings while acknowledging other more legitimate concerns. He ultimately supports the bill, seeing it as a good compromise between safety and innovation, while urging readers to pay attention to the conversation and be wary of misrepresentations. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2024
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Mantic Monday 1/29/24

19 min • 2,887 words • 228 comments • 77 likes • podcast (19 min)
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary
Jun 26, 2023
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"Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine

4 min • 588 words • 149 comments • 70 likes • podcast (39 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes the AI-focused issue of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting key articles on AI forecasting, testing, and impacts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents an overview of the latest issue of Asterisk Magazine, which focuses on AI. He highlights several articles, including his own piece on forecasting AI progress, interviews with experts on AI testing and China's AI situation, discussions on the future of microchips and AI's impact on economic growth, and various other pieces on AI safety, regulation, and related topics. The post also mentions non-AI articles and congratulates the Asterisk team on their work. Shorter summary
Mar 08, 2023
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Issue Two Of Asterisk

4 min • 577 words • 54 comments • 65 likes • podcast (4 min)
Scott Alexander reviews the second issue of Asterisk magazine, which focuses on food-related topics in rationalist and effective altruist contexts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the second issue of Asterisk, a rationalist/effective altruist magazine focused on food. He provides brief summaries of various articles in the issue, including reviews of books on animal justice, critiques of the Green Revolution, discussions on plant-based meat, tofu in America, nutrition misinformation, and cultivated meat. He also mentions articles on pandemic prediction, feeding the world during nuclear winter, animal welfare, and oral rehydration therapy. Scott praises the magazine and its team, encouraging readers to subscribe. Shorter summary
Nov 21, 2022
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"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine

5 min • 655 words • 308 comments • 114 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott Alexander announces the launch of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting various articles from its first issue, including his own piece on wine tasting. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the launch of Asterisk Magazine, a new rationalist / effective altruist publication. He lists several articles from the first issue, including his own piece titled 'Is Wine Fake?'. The post briefly describes each article's content and author. Scott also mentions hosting a launch party where he challenged attendees to figure out the kabbalistic significance of the foods served, revealing that one item was a white wine dyed red, referencing his article on wine tasting. Shorter summary
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