Scott Alexander dissects and criticizes a common argument against AI safety that compares it to past unfulfilled disaster predictions, finding it logically flawed and difficult to steelman. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a common argument against AI safety concerns, which compares them to past unfulfilled predictions of disaster (like a 'coffeepocalypse'). He finds this argument logically flawed and explores possible explanations for why people make it. Scott considers whether it's an attempt at an existence proof, a way to trigger heuristics, or a misunderstanding of how evidence works. He concludes that he still doesn't fully understand the mindset behind such arguments and invites readers to point out if he ever makes similar logical mistakes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his AI risk post, discussing AI self-awareness, narrow vs. general AI, catastrophe probabilities, and research priorities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to various comments on his original post about AI risk. He addresses topics such as the nature of self-awareness in AI, the distinction between narrow and general AI, probabilities of AI-related catastrophes, incentives for misinformation, arguments for AGI timelines, and the relationship between near-term and long-term AI research. Scott uses analogies and metaphors to illustrate complex ideas about AI development and potential risks. Shorter summary

The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering medical research, sociology, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles, studies and news items. Topics range from medical research (drug expiration dates, depression treatments) to sociology (class in China, runner demographics) to politics (neoliberalism, Israel boycott laws) to technology (AI language models, genetic engineering). The post maintains a somewhat informal tone while discussing academic papers and news items, often adding brief commentary or context to help understand the significance of each link. Shorter summary

A Links post presenting various news items and articles, ranging from cultural curiosities like the multiocular O to scientific findings about brain sex differences and genetic research, along with commentary on current events and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and articles covering a wide range of topics. The post includes scientific findings (like research on sex differences in the brain and studies on antidepressants), cultural curiosities (like rare Cyrillic letters), political developments (like the White House's decision on Exxon drilling rights), and various technological advances (like an AI that writes poetry). The post provides brief commentary on each link, often with Scott's characteristically analytical and sometimes humorous perspective on the implications of each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his changing perspective towards scientific consensus, sharing personal experiences where he initially believed he was defying consensus but later discovered that the scientific community was often ahead of or aligned with his views. He discusses examples from various fields including the replication crisis, nutrition science, social justice issues, and AI risk. Alexander concludes that scientific consensus, while not perfect, is remarkably effective and trustworthy, often self-correcting within a decade of new evidence emerging. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, particularly when people claim to be extremely certain about complex future events. He explains how experiments show that people are often vastly overconfident, even when they claim 99.9999% certainty. Scott argues that extreme confidence is rarely justified, especially for predictions about technological progress or societal changes. He suggests that overconfidence contributes to intolerance and close-mindedness, and that studying history can help reduce overconfidence by showing how often confident predictions have been wrong in the past. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to articles claiming that AI researchers are not concerned about AI risk by providing a list of prominent AI researchers who have expressed concerns about the potential risks of advanced AI. He argues that there isn't a clear divide between 'skeptics' and 'believers', but rather a general consensus that some preliminary work on AI safety is needed. The post highlights that the main differences lie in the timeline for AI development and when preparations should begin, not whether the risks are real. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering technology, science, economics and society, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each topic. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies. Topics range from artificial lighting technology that mimics sunlight, to FDA's role in covering up clinical trial fraud, to immigration studies about assimilation. Scott also discusses economic issues like Greece's basic income proposal and inequality trends, scientific findings about processed food and attraction, and technological developments like head transplants and color blindness treatments. The post maintains a light tone while providing critical analysis of various claims and studies. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links and articles covering topics like science, economics, language, and culture, with his characteristic mix of insight and humor. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott shares various interesting articles and findings from around the web. He covers topics ranging from scientific discoveries to economics, including responses to his previous writing on contraception, ancient language quirks, physics theories, morality statements, lost cities, Japanese pop culture, and effective altruism. The post maintains a casual, often humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information. Shorter summary