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Jul 17, 2026
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Your Book Review: Great And Desperate Cures

132 min • 20,439 words • 195 comments • 193 likes • podcast (147 min)
A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary
The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Mar 11, 2026
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Last Rights

26 min • 3,962 words • 432 comments • 493 likes • podcast (22 min)
A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary
This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2026
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"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know

27 min • 4,148 words • 435 comments • 427 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the controversy around AI companies' contracts with the Department of War, focusing on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's designation of Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk' after they refused to allow their AI to be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The post examines OpenAI's subsequent agreement with the DoW, which permits 'all lawful use' of their models. Through detailed legal analysis provided by anonymous readers, Scott shows that current laws have significant loopholes: mass domestic surveillance is technically legal when data is 'incidentally obtained' or purchased from third parties, and autonomous weapons are only regulated by vague DoW policies that can be changed at will. The post critiques OpenAI's FAQ as misleading, arguing their safeguards are inadequate, and concludes with questions that employees, journalists, and lawmakers should be asking about the contract. Shorter summary
Feb 25, 2026
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The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic

19 min • 2,929 words • 720 comments • 567 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance. Longer summary
Scott discusses a contract dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, where the Pentagon is attempting to renegotiate their original agreement to remove Anthropic's Usage Policy restrictions and gain access to AI for 'all lawful purposes.' Anthropic has resisted, requesting guarantees against mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous killbots, which the Pentagon refused. The Pentagon has threatened various consequences including designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk'—an unprecedented use of a designation previously only applied to foreign adversaries. Scott argues strongly in support of Anthropic's position, viewing the Pentagon's tactics as authoritarian overreach. He addresses numerous counterarguments in detail, explains why the Pentagon should simply switch to another AI vendor, and praises the widespread support Anthropic has received from across the political spectrum and the tech industry. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2026
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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

27 min • 4,045 words • 269 comments • 181 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress. Longer summary
Scott analyzes why Ajeya Cotra's landmark 2020 'Biological Anchors' report predicted AGI around 2050, when current estimates now center on the late 2020s to 2040s. The report correctly predicted the scaling hypothesis and AI boom, but underestimated one crucial parameter: algorithmic progress was actually 200% per year instead of the predicted 30%. This single error, compounded across exponential growth, threw off the entire timeline by about twenty years. Scott examines various contemporary critiques of the report, finding that most concerns about the methodology were actually non-issues, while one throwaway concern (about algorithmic progress estimates being poorly researched) turned out to be the fatal flaw. He concludes this demonstrates both the power and limitations of probabilistic forecasting. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Dec 10, 2025
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Links For December 2025

51 min • 7,776 words • 592 comments • 260 likes • podcast (52 min)
Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary
This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary
Nov 14, 2025
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Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest

2 min • 259 words • 132 comments • 49 likes • podcast (2 min)
Scott asks readers to suggest questions for the 2026 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, with prizes for the top ten contributors and AI bots competing this year. Longer summary
Scott announces the upcoming ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest for 2026 and calls for question suggestions from readers. The contest has been running for several years with Metaculus handling most of the organization, and last year attracted over 4500 forecasters predicting on 33 questions. Scott explains that good questions should be objective, verifiable outcomes that will be resolved by year's end, providing examples of well-specified versus poorly-specified questions. The top ten question contributors will receive prizes ranging from $150 to $700, and this year's contest will include AI bots competing alongside humans. Shorter summary
Oct 17, 2025
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Non-Book Review Contest 2025 Winners

12 min • 1,827 words • 274 comments • 128 likes • podcast (10 min)
Scott announces the winners and finalists of the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest, with prizes ranging from free subscriptions to $2500, and provides bios for all the winning authors. Longer summary
Scott announces the winners of the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest, with first place going to a review of Joan of Arc, second place to Alpha School, and third place to the Russo-Ukrainian War. The post lists all finalists and honorable mentions with brief bios of the authors, explains the prizes (ranging from free ACX subscriptions to cash awards of $2500 for first place), and notes that the contest will alternate yearly between book reviews and non-book reviews going forward. Shorter summary
Oct 01, 2025
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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

213 min • 32,949 words • 755 comments • 679 likes • podcast (186 min)
A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary
Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary
Aug 29, 2025
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Open Letter To The NIH

6 min • 815 words • 341 comments • 190 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott shares an open letter urging the NIH to spend $5 billion in allocated but unspent research funds before the fiscal year deadline. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares an open letter to the NIH about unspent research funding. The letter, which he was asked to share by anonymous authors concerned about retaliation, urges NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya to follow through on his commitment to spend $5 billion in allocated funds before the fiscal year ends on September 30th. The letter emphasizes the bipartisan support for NIH funding, the economic returns on research investment, and the importance of keeping pace with China's increasing research spending. Shorter summary
Aug 14, 2025
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In Defense Of The Amyloid Hypothesis

70 min • 10,813 words • 188 comments • 279 likes • podcast (35 min)
A guest post defending the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, explaining why amyloid is likely the root cause despite recent criticism and discussing why early treatments have only been partially effective. Longer summary
David Schneider-Joseph presents a detailed defense of the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, which states that the disease is caused by accumulation of amyloid-β peptide. He explains the ATN model (amyloid → tau → neurodegeneration) and provides extensive evidence from genetics, clinical studies, and animal models. The post addresses various criticisms of the hypothesis, including the recent research fraud controversy and apparent failures of early treatments. The author explains why current treatments have only achieved about 30% efficacy and predicts that future treatments targeting amyloid earlier and more effectively could achieve much better results. Shorter summary
Jul 31, 2025
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Suddenly, Trait-Based Embryo Selection

56 min • 8,637 words • 748 comments • 407 likes • podcast (60 min)
Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary
Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary
Jun 03, 2025
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Choose Nonbook Review Finalists 2025

5 min • 760 words • 297 comments • 70 likes • podcast (7 min)
Scott asks readers to help select finalists for the Non-Book Review Contest by rating entries through a provided form, with voting open until June 20. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the voting phase for the Non-Book Review Contest 2025, asking readers to help narrow down 141 entries to about a dozen finalists. He provides links to categorized lists of entries (Other A-I, J-S, T-Z, Games, Music, TV/Movies) and a rating form. He specifically asks readers not to read entries in order but either randomly or based on interest, to ensure more even distribution of votes. The post includes the full list of entries and mentions a June 20 deadline for voting. Shorter summary
May 02, 2025
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Testing AI's GeoGuessr Genius

28 min • 4,281 words • 483 comments • 406 likes • podcast (37 min)
Scott tests OpenAI's o3 model's ability to identify locations from photos, finding it has remarkable success even with minimal visual information, raising questions about AI capabilities. Longer summary
Scott tests OpenAI's o3 model on increasingly difficult GeoGuessr-style location guessing challenges using his own photos. Starting with a Google Street View image of a featureless plain, progressing through personal photos of Nepal mountains, a dorm room, and extremely zoomed-in shots of grass and river water, Scott finds that o3 shows remarkable ability to identify locations from minimal visual cues. While it fails on some challenges like identifying a specific house address, its success rate and reasoning process on most images is impressive enough to make Scott question whether this represents a qualitatively different level of AI capability. Shorter summary
Feb 03, 2025
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Model City Monday 2/3/25

19 min • 2,856 words • 247 comments • 236 likes • podcast (17 min)
A roundup of recent developments in charter cities and model city projects, including setbacks for Prospera and NEOM, new proposals in the US, and updates on various other projects worldwide. Longer summary
This post covers recent developments in various charter city and model city projects worldwide. It starts with Prospera in Honduras being declared unconstitutional, discussing their two-pronged strategy of waiting for political change and pursuing international arbitration. It then covers Saudi Arabia's NEOM project scaling back its ambitions, Trump's proposal for 'freedom cities' in America, California Forever's strategic pivot in Solano County, and Bhutan's ambitious Geluphu Mindfulness City project. The post ends with brief updates on other model city projects including Praxis, Fumba, Esmeralda, and Kanye West's Middle East plans. Shorter summary
Jan 17, 2025
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Links For January 2025

35 min • 5,422 words • 875 comments • 236 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary
This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary
Nov 27, 2024
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Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

97 min • 15,033 words • 874 comments • 601 likes • podcast (88 min)
Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary
This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary
Nov 05, 2024
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Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

25 min • 3,744 words • 469 comments • 220 likes • podcast (26 min)
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary
This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2024
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Links For November 2024

42 min • 6,373 words • 932 comments • 216 likes • podcast (41 min)
A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary
Oct 22, 2024
acx
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ACX Local Voting Guides

11 min • 1,562 words • 135 comments • 61 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott Alexander shares and comments on local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities, highlighting interesting aspects of each guide. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities. He provides links to each guide and offers commentary on their contents, highlighting interesting races, propositions, and candidate names. The post covers guides for Austin, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Oakland/Berkeley, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Scott notes the different formats and approaches taken by each group, and mentions plans for future election coverage. Shorter summary
Oct 11, 2024
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Book Review Contest 2024 Winners

10 min • 1,500 words • 249 comments • 136 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott Alexander announces the winners and finalists of the 2024 Book Review Contest, with prizes for the top three reviews. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the winners of the 2024 Book Review Contest. The top three winners are Amanda's review of 'Two Arms And A Head', David Matolcsi's review of 'Nine Lives', and Jack Thorlin's review of 'How The War Was Won'. The post lists the other finalists and honorable mentions, providing brief descriptions of the reviewers. Scott mentions potential changes to the contest format for future years, considering an 'Everything-Except-Book-Reviews' contest for next year. Shorter summary
Oct 10, 2024
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SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story

43 min • 6,634 words • 432 comments • 184 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary
This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary
Aug 30, 2024
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Your Book Review: The History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe

15 min • 2,173 words • 216 comments • 130 likes • podcast (16 min)
The review examines W.E.H. Lecky's book on the rise of rationalism in Europe, praising its scholarship and insights into the gradual shift from medieval to rational thinking. Longer summary
This review discusses W.E.H. Lecky's 'The History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe', a book that explores the decline of medieval beliefs and the emergence of rationalism in Europe. The reviewer provides context with an anecdote about a 19th-century 'demonic possession' case, then details Lecky's life and the book's creation. The review outlines the book's main thesis: that rationalism triumphed not through logic, but through gradual social, political, and industrial influences. The reviewer praises the book's scholarship, fascinating facts, and diverse historical figures, recommending it to readers interested in intellectual history. Shorter summary
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