Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary

Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his voting choices for California elections and ballot measures, offering brief explanations and occasional humor for each decision. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his preliminary choices for California elected positions and ballot initiatives. He provides brief justifications for his votes on various positions including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Controller, and others. He also analyzes several propositions on the ballot, explaining the issues and his reasoning for each vote. The post is a mix of serious policy analysis and humorous commentary on California politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and analyzes various critiques of Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', finding that many of Piketty's key claims don't hold up well under scrutiny. Longer summary

This post summarizes various critiques and discussions of Thomas Piketty's book 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century'. Key points include: Matt Rognlie's criticism that Piketty didn't correctly account for capital depreciation, and that recent capital-share growth comes primarily from housing. The post questions Piketty's claim about higher returns for the super-rich, with various commenters providing insights on investment strategies and market behavior. It also discusses critiques of Piketty's income distribution statistics and data interpretation. The post concludes that many of Piketty's main claims, such as the rising rentier class and much better returns for the super-rich, don't hold up well under scrutiny, though some of his rules of thumb for growth are more robust than expected. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the arguments for and against technological unemployment, analyzing labor force participation rates, manufacturing job losses, and economic data to determine if automation is currently causing significant job displacement. He concludes that while there's little evidence of technological unemployment happening right now, there are signs of 'technological underemployment' where automation is pushing workers from middle-skill to lower-skill jobs. The long-term impacts remain uncertain, with economists divided on whether this is a temporary adjustment or a new normal. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links covering topics from architecture to AI, with brief summaries and occasional humorous commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, Chinese immigrant history, psychotherapy, AI advancements, genetics, politics, science, and economics. The post includes brief summaries or comments on each link, often with a touch of humor or irony. Some notable items include discussions on the repressive climate in the Bay Area, new studies on autism and transgender links, and economists' opinions on Net Neutrality repeal. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his tax bill posts, maintains that wealth distribution is more important than growth, and argues the bill likely won't benefit the poor as much as current spending. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his thoughts on the recent tax bill, responding to criticisms of his previous posts. He admits he was wrong about there being no case for the bill and about CEO statements on using tax cuts. However, he maintains that economic growth is less important than wealth distribution, using an analogy about an effective altruist in a small town. He argues that in societies with high inequality, redistribution can be more beneficial than growth. Scott compares the potential benefits of the tax cut to other uses of government funds, concluding that it likely won't benefit the poor as much as maintaining current spending. He acknowledges some potential errors in his calculations but believes his overall point stands. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends his criticism of the GOP tax bill, arguing that even if taxes should be lowered, there are more effective ways to cut taxes that would directly benefit the poor and middle class. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism of his previous article on the GOP tax bill, reaffirming his position that the bill is a poor approach to tax cuts. He argues that even if one believes taxes should be lower, there are better ways to implement tax cuts. Scott suggests that halving income taxes for the bottom 80% of earners would be a more effective alternative. He critiques the argument that corporate tax cuts boost economic growth, citing economist opinions, CEO statements, and historical trends. The post emphasizes that direct tax cuts or welfare programs for the poor and middle class would be more beneficial than the proposed corporate tax cuts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares the cost of the GOP tax bill to other expensive projects, reflecting on how society scrutinizes different types of costly proposals. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the GOP tax bill, comparing its cost to other expensive projects and programs. He expresses concern that people, including himself, tend to scrutinize well-intentioned but expensive ideas more than clearly bad ideas with little benefit. Scott suggests there might be a 'toxoplasma effect' where debatable issues get more attention than obviously problematic ones. He concludes by stating he might support Bernie Sanders in the next election, despite his libertarian leanings, because he believes we have 'antibodies to socialism' that allow proper scrutiny, unlike other potentially harmful policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that a New York Times article misrepresented economists' views on school vouchers, offering evidence and proposing a bet to prove the article was misleading. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a New York Times article that claimed economists generally don't support school vouchers. He argues the article misrepresented survey data and gave a misleading impression. Scott points out that the data could be interpreted to support the opposite conclusion, that the article's phrasing likely led readers to an incorrect understanding of economists' views, and that a follow-up survey showed much stronger economist support for vouchers. He offers to bet that most readers would get a false impression from the article, initially agreeing to a bet with Noah Smith, though this later fell through. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a New York Times article for misrepresenting economists' views on education vouchers, showing the data actually indicates more support than opposition among economists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a New York Times article about economists' views on education vouchers. The article claims economists generally don't support free market approaches to education, but Scott points out that the survey data cited actually shows more economists support vouchers than oppose them. He argues this misrepresentation is poor journalistic practice and hopes for a correction. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts where he shares and briefly comments on interesting articles and studies he's found. The post covers diverse topics including medical research critique (particularly brain imaging and psychiatric studies), current events (like the Chinese government's actions against Buddhist monks), and technological developments in AI safety. Scott adds his characteristic analytical commentary to many of the links, pointing out surprising implications or potential flaws in the studies. The format is casual but informative, with Scott often expressing personal opinions or humorous observations about the material he's sharing. Shorter summary