Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary

This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary

Scott explores GABA-A receptor subunits, their effects, and how various drugs interact with them, discussing potential for more selective drug development. Longer summary

This post explores GABA-A receptor subunits and their role in psychiatric drugs and supplements. It explains the structure of GABA-A receptors, focusing on the alpha subunits and their associated effects. The post discusses how different drugs like benzodiazepines and zolpidem (Ambien) interact with these subunits, and mentions attempts to create more selective drugs. It also touches on the role of GABA receptors in alcohol's effects and the classification of Z-drugs. The author includes personal experiences with supplements claiming to have selective GABA modulation. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates. Longer summary

This post is a collection of highlights from reader comments on Scott Alexander's review of the book 'San Fransicko'. It covers various topics related to homelessness, crime, and urban policy in San Francisco and other cities. The comments provide additional context, personal anecdotes, data analysis, and critiques of both the book and Scott's review. Key themes include the complexity of homelessness, issues with crime statistics, debates over housing policy, and differing perspectives on how to address urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a wide-ranging collection of links covering science, technology, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of interesting links and news items on various topics. He discusses punding (a side effect of dopamine drugs), net neutrality in Montana, Tibetan monks' fear of death, Trump's solar panel tariffs, space exploration news, a potential tinnitus treatment, the US metric system history, NSA's core values change, a Burning Man activist's story, blockchain projects, Aristotle's puns, UK politician Jacob Rees-Mogg, arguments against open borders, new education programs, SAT score correlations, solar system geography, Amazon's entry into healthcare, pain tolerance and friendships, legal terminology origins, campus free speech issues, Twitter bots, nutrition studies, IQ test incentives, dating apps for verified Twitter users, Hitler's drug use, mindfulness research, disability insurance effects, asteroid naming conventions, and various other topics. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that gender imbalances in certain movements are more likely due to inherent differences in interests between men and women rather than offensive attitudes, challenging the assumption that purging perceived sexism will achieve gender parity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander challenges the assumption that gender imbalances in movements like libertarianism are primarily due to offensive attitudes. He presents examples of groups with poor gender equality reputations that still have balanced gender ratios, such as Trump voters and the Catholic Church. He then explores research on gender differences in interests, particularly the 'interest in things vs. people' dimension, which shows a large difference between men and women. Scott suggests these underlying differences in interests and approaches to morality (e.g., utilitarianism) may better explain gender imbalances in certain fields and movements. He argues that attempts to achieve gender balance by purging perceived sexism may be misguided and could lead to unnecessary conflict within these communities. The post concludes by emphasizing the need to fight harassment and build a better world, but not with the expectation that it will automatically lead to gender parity in all fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques the argument that terrorism is less concerning than mundane accidents, showing how excluding 'outlier' events can dangerously skew risk assessments for threats like terrorism and pandemics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the common argument that terrorism shouldn't be a major concern because it kills fewer people than mundane accidents like falling furniture. He points out that this reasoning is flawed because it often arbitrarily excludes major events like 9/11 as 'outliers'. Using examples like earthquakes in Haiti and the 1918 flu pandemic, he demonstrates how excluding extreme events can drastically skew risk assessments. He argues that for some threats, including terrorism, pandemics, and existential risks, these 'outlier' events are actually the most important consideration. The post concludes by expressing concern that this flawed reasoning might be applied after a future catastrophic terrorist attack, undermining the importance of prevention efforts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten irritating internet trends he hopes will end in 2014, ranging from overused words to memes and logical fallacies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten internet trends he wants to stop seeing in 2014. These include overused words like 'fanboy' and 'butthurt', inconsistent arguments about global warming, the doge meme, meta-humor, socioeconomic insults, misuse of 'dude' and 'bro', generational arguments, criticism of girls with male friends, and doge memes referencing the Doge of Venice. He satirically dissects each trend, pointing out their logical flaws or overuse, and occasionally proposes solutions or compromises. The post is written in a sarcastic and exasperated tone, reflecting Scott's frustration with these internet phenomena. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the humorous adaptations of Lovecraft's work in geek culture, arguing they miss the author's intent to create a sense of the strange and transcendent. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the transformation of Lovecraft's work in geek culture, arguing that the humorous adaptations of Cthulhu and other Lovecraftian elements miss the author's original intent. He emphasizes that Lovecraft's aim was to create a sense of the strange, intense, and unearthly, divorced from everyday mundanity. Scott argues that Lovecraft opposed ironic humor that diminishes the transcendent nature of his creations. He urges readers who are interested in Lovecraft to explore his serious works, particularly recommending 'The Dream-Quest of Unknown Kadath' and shorter stories in the Dream Cycle. Shorter summary