Scott Alexander argues against Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, discussing the potential for future AI capabilities and the nature of human intelligence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, arguing that current AI limitations don't necessarily prove statistical AI is a dead end. He discusses the scaling hypothesis, compares AI development to human cognitive development, and suggests that 'world-modeling' may emerge from pattern-matching abilities rather than being a distinct, hard-coded function. Alexander also considers the potential capabilities of future AI systems, even if they don't achieve human-like general intelligence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander experiments with DALL-E 2 to create stained glass window designs, exploring the AI's capabilities and limitations in interpreting complex prompts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the challenges and quirks of using DALL-E 2, an AI art generator, to create stained glass window designs depicting the Virtues of Rationality. He details his attempts to generate images for different virtues, discussing the AI's strengths, limitations, and unexpected behaviors. The post analyzes how DALL-E interprets prompts, handles historical figures and concepts, and struggles with combining specific subjects and styles. Scott concludes that while DALL-E is capable of impressive work, it currently has difficulties with unusual requests and maintaining consistent styles across multiple images. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces his marriage and reflects on finding love, introducing 'micromarriages' as a motivational concept and exploring the rational and romantic aspects of marriage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces his recent marriage and reflects on his journey to find a partner. He introduces the concept of 'micromarriages' as a motivational tool for those seeking relationships, shares personal anecdotes about meeting his wife, and discusses the significance of marriage contracts. Scott then delves into a more philosophical view of marriage, comparing it to Odysseus' encounter with the Sirens, emphasizing the balance between rational precautions and embracing the beauty of a deep connection. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives. Longer summary

The post critiques the use of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication, arguing that it's misleading and erodes public trust. Scott Alexander shows how the phrase is used inconsistently to mean both 'plausible but not yet proven' and 'definitively false'. He explains that this stems from a misunderstanding of how real truth-seeking works, which should be Bayesian rather than based on a simplistic null hypothesis model. The post concludes by suggesting better ways for journalists to communicate scientific uncertainty, including being more specific about the state of evidence and engaging with the arguments of those who believe differently. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines skeptical and supportive comments on claims of enlightenment, arguing that evidence for such states is comparable to other accepted mental phenomena. Longer summary

This post discusses the comments on a previous article about Persistent Non-Symbolic Experience (PNSE) or 'enlightenment'. Scott Alexander addresses skepticism towards claims of enlightenment, comparing it to other mental states and discussing the evidence for its existence. He argues that the evidence for enlightenment-like states is as strong as for many other accepted mental phenomena. The post also explores different perspectives on enlightenment, including potential criticisms and alternative explanations, as well as personal accounts from individuals with meditation experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces 'prospiracy theories', positive conspiracy-style memes designed to spread true and beneficial information, in response to the rapid spread of conspiracy theories on social media. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about conspiracy theories spreading faster than debunkings on Facebook. He presents a creative solution by creating 'prospiracy theories' - positive, uplifting conspiracy-style memes designed to spread true and beneficial information. The post includes four image examples of these prospiracy theories, covering topics like the benefits of exercise, the importance of sleep, the value of reading, and the positive impact of kindness. These images mimic the style of conspiracy theory memes but promote factual, beneficial information instead. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a 'Grand Unified Chart' showing how different domains of knowledge share a similar structure in interpreting the world, arguing this is due to basic brain algorithms and effective epistemology. Longer summary

Scott Alexander draws parallels between different domains of knowledge, showing how they all share a similar structure in interpreting the world. He presents a 'Grand Unified Chart' that compares Philosophy of Science, Bayesian Probability, Psychology, Discourse, Society, and Neuroscience. Each domain is broken down into three components: pre-existing ideas, discrepancies, and actual experiences. Scott argues that this structure is universal because it's built into basic brain algorithms and is the most effective way to do epistemology. He emphasizes that the interaction between facts and theories is bidirectional, and that theory change is a complex process resistant to simple contradictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

The post reviews research on adult neurogenesis, initially presenting evidence for its existence and importance, then reveals a new study suggesting it doesn't occur in humans, examining the implications of this potential field-wide error. Longer summary

This post reviews the literature on adult neurogenesis, initially presenting numerous studies that claimed to find evidence for the generation of new neurons in adult human brains. These studies linked adult neurogenesis to various aspects of brain function, including memory, learning, and depression. However, the post then reveals a new study suggesting that adult neurogenesis doesn't actually occur in humans, or is so rare as to be insignificant. The author examines how this field-wide error could have occurred, discussing the extrapolation of rat studies to humans and the role of confirmation bias. The post ends by reflecting on the implications of this for scientific research and the replication crisis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander attempts to understand and explain Karl Friston's complex 'free energy' principle in neuroscience, exploring its various interpretations and potential implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores Karl Friston's work on 'free energy', a complex concept in neuroscience that has been described as a unified brain theory. The post delves into various interpretations of free energy, from its mathematical origins in Bayesian equations to its application in explaining perception, cognition, homeostasis, and action. Scott struggles to fully grasp the concept, acknowledging its complexity and the widespread difficulty in understanding Friston's work. He presents different perspectives on free energy, including its role in uncertainty reduction, its connection to predictive processing, and its potential to explain biological systems and the origin of life. The post concludes with a tentative synthesis of these ideas and raises questions about the implications of the free energy principle for machine ethics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'Kolmogorov complicity' and its implications for scientific inquiry under oppressive orthodoxies, using historical and hypothetical examples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Kolmogorov complicity' in relation to historical and contemporary scientific orthodoxies. He begins by examining myths about scientists persecuted by the Church, noting that while some scientists were indeed punished, it was often for reasons beyond their scientific work. The post then discusses the 'Kolmogorov option,' where scientists strategically comply with political demands while privately pursuing truth. Alexander argues that this approach, while sometimes necessary, can lead to systemic problems in truth-seeking and education. He uses a hypothetical scenario about lightning and thunder to illustrate how even a seemingly harmless orthodoxy can corrupt scientific inquiry and societal knowledge. The post concludes by suggesting the need for 'whisper networks' to maintain truth-seeking in the face of problematic orthodoxies, while acknowledging the challenges and risks involved in such an approach. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Surfing Uncertainty' by Andy Clark, exploring the predictive processing model of brain function and its wide-ranging explanatory power. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Surfing Uncertainty' by Andy Clark, which explains the predictive processing model of how the brain works. This model posits that the brain is constantly making predictions about sensory input and updating its models based on prediction errors. Scott explores how this theory can explain various phenomena like attention, imagination, learning, motor behavior, and even psychiatric conditions like autism and schizophrenia. He finds the model compelling and potentially explanatory for a wide range of cognitive and perceptual processes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the complexities and inconsistencies of drug tolerance in psychiatry, highlighting how different drugs can produce varying tolerance effects across individuals. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the complex and often unpredictable nature of drug tolerance in psychiatry. He explores various examples of how different drugs can lead to tolerance, no tolerance, or even reverse tolerance (increased sensitivity) in different individuals. The post highlights the inconsistencies in how tolerance develops across various drugs and patients, and how this impacts psychiatric treatment. Scott expresses frustration with the lack of attention given to tolerance in psychiatric literature and the difficulty in predicting or explaining tolerance patterns. He also touches on how this unpredictability relates to addiction, the potential for missed opportunities in drug development, and the need for better understanding of tolerance mechanisms. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and brief commentary spanning topics from scientific research to cultural phenomena, including updates on various studies challenging previous beliefs. Longer summary

This is a links post containing short summaries and comments on various news, studies, and interesting articles. Topics covered include gun violence research, genetic studies, college admissions and tuition, nutrition science, criminal justice reform, and cultural effects. Scott discusses new research challenging previous beliefs about bilingualism and drug side effects, shares interesting discoveries about religious effects on society, and provides updates on various scientific and technological developments. The post also includes commentary on political developments, interesting place names, and various cultural phenomena. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends Less Wrong and Eliezer Yudkowsky against accusations of being anti-scientific, arguing that developing rational thinking skills beyond traditional scientific methods is valuable and necessary. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Topher Hallquist's criticism of Less Wrong and Eliezer Yudkowsky as being 'anti-scientific rationality'. Scott argues that Hallquist's criticisms are often unfair or inaccurate, taking quotes out of context or misunderstanding Yudkowsky's positions. He defends the rationalist community's efforts to develop better thinking tools that go beyond traditional scientific methods, while still respecting science. Scott contends that developing an 'Art of Thinking Clearly' is valuable and necessary, especially for experts who have to make difficult judgments. He argues Less Wrong is not against science, but wants to strengthen and supplement it with additional rational thinking skills. Shorter summary

A satirical future op-ed argues that not giving children 'super-enhancement gene therapy' is child abuse, mirroring current pro-vaccination arguments. Longer summary

This satirical post, written as if from the future year 2065, critiques current anti-vaccination arguments by applying them to a hypothetical future technology: super-enhancement designer baby gene therapy. The author, posing as a bioethicist, argues that not giving children this therapy is child abuse and a public health issue. The post mimics common pro-vaccination arguments, citing increased crime rates, car accidents, and disease outbreaks as consequences of not enhancing children. It concludes by calling for severe restrictions on unenhanced children and punishment for parents who refuse the therapy. The satire aims to highlight the absurdity of current anti-vaccination arguments by applying similar logic to a more extreme scenario. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander refutes a blog post criticizing rationalism, arguing it misunderstands the movement and its core values of empiricism, scholarship, and humility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a blog post titled 'Why I Am Not A Rationalist' on Almost Diamonds, arguing that it fundamentally misunderstands both classical rationalism (Descartes) and modern rationalism (Yudkowsky). He points out that the blog post accuses rationalists of lacking empiricism, scholarship, and humility, when these are in fact core values of the rationalist movement. Scott provides numerous examples to demonstrate the rationalist community's commitment to these principles. He concludes by explaining why rationality skills are necessary in addition to empirical knowledge, especially when dealing with limited or conflicting information. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how debates often revolve around vague concepts with positive or negative associations rather than specific claims, leading to logical fallacies and tribal thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'ethnic tension' in arguments, showing how debates often center around vague concepts loaded with good or bad karma rather than specific factual or moral claims. He argues this leads to motte-and-bailey fallacies, tribal affiliations, and motivated reasoning. The post analyzes how concepts become associated with groups, creating proxy ethnicities and making rational debate difficult. Scott suggests precision and separating concepts as a potential solution to this problem. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains how psychiatric conditions like ADHD can be both over- and underdiagnosed simultaneously, due to statistical quirks in diagnosis and population prevalence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the counterintuitive phenomenon of simultaneous over- and underdiagnosis in psychiatry, using ADHD as an example. He explains how, even with a highly accurate psychiatrist, it's possible for the majority of people diagnosed with a condition to not have it, while the majority of people who actually have the condition remain undiagnosed. This is due to the interplay between disease prevalence, self-selection for evaluation, and the inherent limitations of diagnostic accuracy. The post demonstrates this concept using a hypothetical scenario with ADHD, and then suggests that this phenomenon likely applies to other conditions such as depression and pain medication prescriptions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Eulering' and strategies for dealing with complex mathematical arguments in non-mathematical debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'Eulering,' where complex mathematical arguments are used to refute non-mathematical ideas, potentially leaving those less mathematically inclined unable to respond effectively. He uses the apocryphal story of Diderot and Euler to illustrate this concept. Scott explores the dilemma of whether to dismiss such arguments as sophistry or to accept them at face value, highlighting the trade-off between avoiding mathematical intimidation and maintaining intellectual rigor. He discusses his personal experiences with mathematical arguments in various fields, particularly focusing on statistics in scientific research. Scott proposes a strategy of 'routing around' complex mathematical objections by focusing on the underlying non-mathematical claims and evidence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a study revealing poor statistical literacy among doctors, critiquing both the study and its implications for medical decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a study showing poor statistical literacy among doctors, particularly Ob/Gyn residents. The post highlights that only 42% of doctors correctly answered a question about p-values, and only 26% correctly solved a Bayesian probability problem about mammogram results. Scott critiques the study's questions and interpretation, notes the Dunning-Kruger effect in self-reported statistical literacy, and points out gender differences in self-assessment. He concludes by questioning the FDA's decision to restrict individuals' access to their genome information based on doctors' supposed superior statistical understanding. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for the value of using quantification and made-up statistics in decision-making, even when imperfect, as they often outperform intuition and reveal biases in our thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the value of using made-up statistics and quantification in decision-making, even when the numbers are imperfect. He argues that this approach can often lead to better outcomes than relying solely on intuition or System 1 thinking. The post begins with an anecdote about teaching Bayes' Theorem, then explores how quantification can improve decision-making in various fields, including utilitarianism and medical diagnosis. Scott emphasizes that while these numbers may be imperfect, they often provide more accurate results than gut feelings, which can be severely biased. He concludes by advocating for applying made-up models to various problems as a way to challenge our intuitions and gain new perspectives. Shorter summary