Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a theory of depression as a recalibrated happiness set point, drawing parallels with fever and anorexia, to explain why depressed people seek out sad stimuli. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling behavior of depressed people preferring sad music, despite it making them feel worse. He proposes a theory based on control theory and set points, comparing depression to conditions like fever and anorexia. The post suggests that depression might involve a recalibrated happiness set point, where the body defends an abnormally low mood through both biological and behavioral mechanisms. Scott also discusses potential research directions and connects this theory to predictive coding concepts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the challenges of putting statistical findings into context, showing how different comparisons can make the same statistic seem either significant or trivial. He provides numerous examples of effect sizes and correlations from various fields to illustrate this point. The post aims to promote awareness of how statistics can be manipulated and encourages readers to be vigilant when interpreting contextual comparisons. Scott also acknowledges the limitations of using standardized effect sizes but argues for their utility in certain situations where more specific measures are difficult to comprehend. Shorter summary

The post challenges the notion that effect sizes below 0.50 for medications are clinically insignificant, using antidepressants as a case study and comparing them to other common drugs. Longer summary

This post discusses the interpretation of effect sizes in medical studies, particularly for antidepressants. It challenges the common notion that effect sizes below 0.50 are clinically insignificant. The author presents a Danish study that simulates various hypothetical medications, showing that even drugs that cure or significantly improve depression in a large percentage of patients might not meet traditional effect size thresholds. The post explains why these thresholds might be unrealistic due to factors like the placebo effect, high standard deviations in placebo groups, and patient dropouts. It also compares antidepressant effect sizes to those of other widely accepted medications, concluding that many common drugs would be considered 'clinically insignificant' by strict effect size standards. The author suggests that claims about 'meaningless effect sizes' should be given less weight compared to other evidence, such as clinical experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why skills plateau, proposing decay and interference hypotheses to explain the phenomenon across various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores why skills plateau despite continued practice, focusing on creative artists, doctors, and formal education. He presents two main hypotheses: the decay hypothesis, where knowledge is forgotten if not regularly reviewed, and the interference hypothesis, where similar information blends together, making it difficult to learn new things in the same domain. The post discusses how these hypotheses explain various learning phenomena, including the ability to learn multiple unrelated skills simultaneously. Scott also considers edge cases and potential applications of these theories, such as mnemonic devices and language learning strategies. Shorter summary

Anna Schaffner's 'Exhaustion: A History' traces explanations for chronic fatigue from ancient times to modern Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, showing how they reflect contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. Longer summary

The book 'Exhaustion: A History' by Anna Schaffner explores the concept of chronic, pathological exhaustion throughout Western history. It traces various explanatory models used in science and culture, from ancient humoral theory to modern conceptions of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS). The author argues that while the symptoms have remained consistent, the explanations for exhaustion have changed over time, reflecting contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. The book covers religious, moral, sexual, and medical explanations, culminating in the current debates surrounding CFS and its controversial status in modern medicine. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from linguistics and AI to politics and economics. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July. Topics range from linguistic analysis of Reddit insults, to COVID-19 learning loss, to AI art generation, to political and economic news. Scott also comments on recent scientific studies, technological developments, and cultural phenomena. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief commentary or context for many of the items. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives. Longer summary

The post critiques the use of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication, arguing that it's misleading and erodes public trust. Scott Alexander shows how the phrase is used inconsistently to mean both 'plausible but not yet proven' and 'definitively false'. He explains that this stems from a misunderstanding of how real truth-seeking works, which should be Bayesian rather than based on a simplistic null hypothesis model. The post concludes by suggesting better ways for journalists to communicate scientific uncertainty, including being more specific about the state of evidence and engaging with the arguments of those who believe differently. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the FDA's delay in approving Paxlovid, a highly effective COVID-19 treatment. He criticizes the FDA for taking an estimated six weeks to approve the drug despite stopping trials early due to its effectiveness. The post explores the inconsistency in the FDA's approach, questions potential reasons for the delay, and emphasizes the urgency of approval given the ongoing COVID-19 deaths. Scott also addresses potential criticisms by comparing the situation to ivermectin and acknowledging the risk of unforeseen issues with Paxlovid. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary

A compilation of 30 diverse links on various topics including science, history, technology, and culture, with brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 30 diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including scientific findings, historical anecdotes, technological developments, cultural phenomena, and current events. The post touches on topics such as oil spills, architecture, IQ research, chronic pain therapy, alcohol consumption, AI safety, and more. Scott Alexander provides short commentaries or explanations for each link, often adding his own insights or connecting the information to broader themes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the development and effectiveness of vilazodone and vortioxetine, two antidepressants designed to work faster and better than SSRIs, but which ultimately failed to live up to expectations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the development and effectiveness of two antidepressants, vilazodone and vortioxetine, which were designed to combine SSRI effects with 5-HT1A partial agonism. He explains the theoretical basis for their development, involving the role of presynaptic 5-HT1A autoreceptors in delaying SSRI effectiveness. The post then evaluates the clinical performance of these drugs, finding that despite their innovative design, they don't significantly outperform older antidepressants in efficacy, onset speed, or side effect profile. Scott expresses confusion about the theoretical underpinnings of these drugs and why pharmaceutical companies invested so heavily in their development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary

This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a study suggesting cloth masks may be harmful, but remains cautiously in favor of their use despite the uncertainty. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a 2015 study by MacIntyre et al. on the efficacy of cloth masks compared to surgical masks and no masks in healthcare settings. The study found cloth masks performed worse than both surgical masks and the control group, raising concerns about their safety. However, Scott notes several limitations of the study and its interpretation. He leans towards believing cloth masks are still better than nothing, especially for blocking outgoing pathogens, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in this life-or-death decision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

The post explores a controversial theory linking saturated fats to weight control, critically examines the evidence, and discusses the paradox of historical vs. modern diets and obesity rates. Longer summary

This post discusses the history of obesity in the US and explores a controversial dietary theory that blames the switch from saturated to unsaturated fats for the obesity epidemic. The author first presents the theory, which suggests that high saturated fat diets might be beneficial for weight control. However, in the second part, the author critically examines the evidence and finds it lacking. The post concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of why modern diets seem to cause obesity while historical diets did not, despite the difficulty in finding a consistently effective weight loss diet. Shorter summary

Stuart Russell's 'Human Compatible' presents AI safety concerns and potential solutions in an accessible way, though the reviewer has reservations about its treatment of current AI issues. Longer summary

Stuart Russell's book 'Human Compatible' discusses the potential risks of superintelligent AI and proposes solutions. The book is significant as it's written by a distinguished AI expert, making the topic more mainstream. Russell argues against common objections to AI risk, presents his research on Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning as a potential solution, and discusses current AI misuses. The reviewer praises Russell's ability to make complex ideas accessible but expresses concern about the book's treatment of current AI issues, worried it might undermine credibility for future AI risk discussions. Shorter summary