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Feb 12, 2026
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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

27 min • 4,045 words • 269 comments • 181 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress. Longer summary
Scott analyzes why Ajeya Cotra's landmark 2020 'Biological Anchors' report predicted AGI around 2050, when current estimates now center on the late 2020s to 2040s. The report correctly predicted the scaling hypothesis and AI boom, but underestimated one crucial parameter: algorithmic progress was actually 200% per year instead of the predicted 30%. This single error, compounded across exponential growth, threw off the entire timeline by about twenty years. Scott examines various contemporary critiques of the report, finding that most concerns about the methodology were actually non-issues, while one throwaway concern (about algorithmic progress estimates being poorly researched) turned out to be the fatal flaw. He concludes this demonstrates both the power and limitations of probabilistic forecasting. Shorter summary
Sep 11, 2025
acx
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Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

46 min • 7,096 words • 1,060 comments • 480 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott reviews a new book by Yudkowsky and Soares that makes an uncompromising case for halting AI development to prevent human extinction, analyzing both its arguments and its potential impact as a call to action. Longer summary
Scott reviews Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares' upcoming book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' about AI safety. The book makes an uncompromising case that AI development will likely lead to human extinction and should be halted immediately through an international treaty and arms control regime. Scott analyzes both the book's arguments and writing style, finding the core message compelling but questioning some of the specific scenarios presented. He reflects on why many people reject existential AI risk warnings using similar dismissive patterns seen with other potential catastrophic risks. Shorter summary
Oct 03, 2022
acx
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CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference

36 min • 5,459 words • 420 comments • 68 likes • podcast (42 min)
Scott Alexander explains and analyzes the debate between MIRI and CHAI on AI alignment strategies, focusing on the challenges and potential flaws in CHAI's 'assistance games' approach. Longer summary
This post discusses the debate between MIRI and CHAI regarding AI alignment strategies, focusing on CHAI's 'assistance games' approach and MIRI's critique of it. The author explains the concepts of sovereign and corrigible AI, inverse reinforcement learning, and the challenges in implementing these ideas in modern AI systems. The post concludes with a brief exchange between Eliezer Yudkowsky (MIRI) and Stuart Russell (CHAI), highlighting their differing perspectives on the feasibility and potential pitfalls of the assistance games approach. Shorter summary
Apr 04, 2022
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Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds

55 min • 8,479 words • 573 comments • 91 likes • podcast (63 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes a debate between Yudkowsky and Christiano on whether AI progress will be gradual or sudden, exploring their key arguments and implications. Longer summary
This post summarizes a debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Paul Christiano on AI takeoff speeds. Christiano argues for a gradual takeoff where AI capabilities increase smoothly, while Yudkowsky predicts a sudden, discontinuous jump to superintelligence. The post explores their key arguments, including historical analogies, the nature of intelligence and recursive self-improvement, and how to measure AI progress. It concludes that while forecasters slightly favor Christiano's view, both scenarios present significant risks that are worth preparing for. Shorter summary
Feb 23, 2022
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Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work

72 min • 11,126 words • 368 comments • 142 likes • podcast (71 min)
Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines for Open Philanthropy, which uses biological anchors to estimate when transformative AI might arrive, and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique of this methodology. The post explains Cotra's approach, Yudkowsky's objections, and various responses, ultimately concluding that while the report may not significantly change existing beliefs, the debate highlights important considerations in AI forecasting. Shorter summary
Aug 06, 2021
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI

37 min • 5,613 words • 356 comments • 57 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his AI risk post, discussing AI self-awareness, narrow vs. general AI, catastrophe probabilities, and research priorities. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to various comments on his original post about AI risk. He addresses topics such as the nature of self-awareness in AI, the distinction between narrow and general AI, probabilities of AI-related catastrophes, incentives for misinformation, arguments for AGI timelines, and the relationship between near-term and long-term AI research. Scott uses analogies and metaphors to illustrate complex ideas about AI development and potential risks. Shorter summary
Mar 18, 2021
acx
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Book Review: The New Sultan

51 min • 7,803 words • 857 comments • 218 likes • podcast (50 min)
Scott Alexander reviews a book on Erdogan's rise to power in Turkey, analyzing the factors that led to democratic backsliding and considering lessons for other democracies. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the book 'The New Sultan: Erdogan And The Crisis Of Modern Turkey', which details Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rise to power and Turkey's shift from a flawed democracy to a partial dictatorship. The review explores Turkey's unique historical context, Erdogan's political journey, and the strategies he used to consolidate power, drawing parallels and contrasts with other countries' experiences of democratic backsliding. Shorter summary
Dec 22, 2019
ssc
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A Maximally Lazy Guide To Giving To Charity In 2019

8 min • 1,213 words • 181 comments • podcast (9 min)
Scott Alexander offers a guide for lazy people to donate to effective charities, ranging from easy options like EA Funds to more specific recommendations in various cause areas. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a guide for people who want to donate to effective charities but are very lazy. He suggests donating to EA Funds as the easiest option, which allows experts to allocate funds to the best charities. For those with slightly more energy, he recommends checking charity-evaluating organizations like GiveWell, Animal Charity Evaluators, and others. He also mentions specific charities in areas like AI safety, climate change, and election science. For the truly skeptical, he suggests GiveDirectly, which gives money directly to poor people in Africa. Shorter summary
Jul 04, 2019
ssc
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Some Clarifications On Rationalist Blogging

5 min • 665 words • 204 comments • podcast (6 min)
Scott Alexander clarifies that his blog Slate Star Codex is not strictly representative of the rationalist community, and addresses common misconceptions about the blog's relationship to rationalism and effective altruism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander clarifies several points about his blog Slate Star Codex (SSC) and its relationship to the rationalist community. He emphasizes that SSC is not strictly a 'rationalist blog', comparing it to a 'rationalist picnic' rather than a 'rationalist monastery'. Scott expresses skepticism about claims of rationality's practical utility in everyday life, and points readers to other resources for more intensive rationalist and effective altruist content. He stresses that while he's not distancing himself from the rationalist community, SSC should not be seen as representative of or equivalent to the broader rationalist movement. The post aims to address common misconceptions and set appropriate expectations for readers. Shorter summary
Dec 25, 2018
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Links 12/18: Boughs Of Hollink

20 min • 2,960 words • 644 comments
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary
This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary
Dec 18, 2017
ssc
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Links 12/17: Silent Site, Holy Site

10 min • 1,417 words • 433 comments
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links covering topics from architecture to AI, with brief summaries and occasional humorous commentary. Longer summary
This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, Chinese immigrant history, psychotherapy, AI advancements, genetics, politics, science, and economics. The post includes brief summaries or comments on each link, often with a touch of humor or irony. Some notable items include discussions on the repressive climate in the Bay Area, new studies on autism and transgender links, and economists' opinions on Net Neutrality repeal. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2017
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Links 10/17: Martin LuthURL

14 min • 2,116 words • 428 comments
A collection of interesting links covering topics from ancient Roman demographics to modern AI developments, criminal justice issues, and cultural oddities. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting news and articles. Topics include ancient Roman life expectancy data, Chinese censorship expanding to group chats, cruise ship pollution, AI developments like AlphaGo Zero, criminal justice issues around drug rehab work camps and police body cameras, and various other scientific, technological and cultural items. The post maintains a light tone while covering both serious topics like Puerto Rico's ongoing crisis and quirky ones like Viking reenactors and Halloween costumes. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2016
ssc
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How Does Recent AI Progress Affect The Bostromian Paradigm?

15 min • 2,240 words • 141 comments
Scott Alexander examines how recent AI progress in neural networks might challenge the Bostromian paradigm of AI risk, exploring potential implications for AI goal alignment and motivation systems. Longer summary
This post discusses how recent advances in AI, particularly in neural networks and deep learning, might affect the Bostromian paradigm of AI risk. Scott Alexander explores two perspectives: the engineer's view that categorization abilities are just tools and not the core of AGI, and the biologist's view that brain-like neural networks might be adaptable to create motivation systems. He suggests that categorization and abstraction might play a crucial role in developing AI moral sense and motivation, potentially leading to AIs that are less likely to be extreme goal-maximizers. The post ends by acknowledging MIRI's work on logical AI safety while suggesting the need for research in other directions as well. Shorter summary
Sep 15, 2016
ssc
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Links 9/16: URL Of The Chaldees

10 min • 1,531 words • 854 comments
A links post featuring stories about AI research, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, ranging from antibacterials in soap to disco riots at baseball games. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and studies. It covers topics ranging from AI research (including MIRI's new paper on Logical Induction and UC Berkeley's new AI safety center), scientific findings (about school entry age and journal quality), historical oddities (like Disco Demolition Night and pay toilets), and current events (like the kratom ban and Seattle's microhousing). The post demonstrates Scott's typical mix of academic research, policy analysis, and interesting historical anecdotes, all tied together with his characteristic dry humor. Shorter summary
Jul 07, 2016
ssc
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Links 7/16: Peter Linklage

13 min • 1,933 words • 814 comments
A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings. Longer summary
This is one of Scott's regular link posts where he shares and briefly comments on interesting articles and studies he's found. The post covers diverse topics including medical research critique (particularly brain imaging and psychiatric studies), current events (like the Chinese government's actions against Buddhist monks), and technological developments in AI safety. Scott adds his characteristic analytical commentary to many of the links, pointing out surprising implications or potential flaws in the studies. The format is casual but informative, with Scott often expressing personal opinions or humorous observations about the material he's sharing. Shorter summary
Mar 26, 2016
ssc
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Links 3/16: Klapaucius And URL

22 min • 3,366 words • 970 comments
A Links post presenting various interesting news and studies from different fields, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary
This is a Links post that presents a collection of interesting news, studies, and articles from various fields. The post covers topics ranging from scientific research and academic policy to economics and social issues. It includes studies on ADHD diagnosis, income inequality, neighborhood effects, and discussion of various cultural and political events. The tone is casual and informative, with Scott providing brief commentary and connecting different ideas throughout. Shorter summary
Dec 18, 2015
ssc
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Links 12/15: Winter Wond-URL-and

16 min • 2,477 words • 678 comments
Scott shares and comments on various links covering topics like startups, science, academia, social issues and charitable giving, with a focus on rationalist and effective altruist causes. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and news from around the internet. Topics include a startup betting on marriage success, privacy/encryption history, climate change policy, scientific studies on aging and obesity, academic criticism, college renaming controversies, drug use surveys, and charitable giving. The post has Scott's typical style of briefly summarizing each link while adding his own commentary and connections between topics. The post ends with several charitable giving opportunities related to rationalist and effective altruist organizations. Shorter summary
Aug 12, 2015
ssc
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Stop Adding Zeroes

17 min • 2,492 words • 427 comments
Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction, arguing that Matthews misuses probabilities and that his logic could also undermine other effective altruist causes. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction in effective altruism. Matthews claims that the probabilities used in x-risk arguments are made up and could be as low as 10^-66. Scott argues that such extremely low probabilities are unrealistic and that Matthews is misusing numbers. He explains that even with rough estimates, the case for prioritizing x-risk remains strong. Scott also points out that similar arguments could be used against other causes Matthews supports, like animal welfare. He concludes by advocating for a big tent approach in effective altruism that respects different cause prioritizations, including x-risk, while acknowledging that x-risk might not be the best public face for the movement. Shorter summary
Jul 24, 2015
ssc
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Links 7/15: From Link, Where Rocky Peaks Climb Bleak And Bare

13 min • 1,865 words • 505 comments
A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies and economic policies to cultural oddities, with particular focus on deworming program controversies and workplace discrimination research. Longer summary
This is a link roundup post where Scott shares various interesting articles and studies. The topics covered range from scientific discoveries to economic policies, from social experiments to cultural oddities. He discusses several major studies and their implications, including birth order effects, workplace discrimination in France, and the controversy around deworming programs. The post also includes various curiosities like botanical bioregions, moon naming conventions, and Chinese stock market intervention, all presented with Scott's characteristic mix of insight and humor. Shorter summary
May 22, 2015
ssc
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AI Researchers On AI Risk

36 min • 5,524 words • 517 comments
Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to articles claiming that AI researchers are not concerned about AI risk by providing a list of prominent AI researchers who have expressed concerns about the potential risks of advanced AI. He argues that there isn't a clear divide between 'skeptics' and 'believers', but rather a general consensus that some preliminary work on AI safety is needed. The post highlights that the main differences lie in the timeline for AI development and when preparations should begin, not whether the risks are real. Shorter summary
Feb 19, 2015
ssc
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Links 2/15: Land of Linkin’

15 min • 2,217 words • 450 comments
A collection of interesting links covering various topics including medical discoveries, scientific studies, social issues, and economic findings, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies. The topics range from medical discoveries to economics, from social issues to scientific studies. It includes discussions of the Brindley lecture in urology, property rights on the moon, fecal transplant effects on weight, mental health policies at Yale, studies on criminality and parenting, and various other scientific and social findings. The post presents each link with a brief commentary or explanation, often with Scott's characteristic mix of curiosity and skepticism. Shorter summary
Nov 23, 2014
ssc
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Links 11/14: I Link, Therefore I Am

14 min • 2,067 words • 353 comments
Scott shares a collection of interesting links covering various topics from American chestnut restoration to scientific findings, political events, and cultural observations. Longer summary
This is a Links post where Scott Alexander shares and briefly comments on various interesting news and findings. The post covers diverse topics including the genetic engineering of American chestnut trees, revelations about Dr. Strangelove's accuracy, malaria eradication efforts, scientific studies on topics like exercise and weight loss, and cultural observations. Scott provides his characteristic analytical commentary on each item, often highlighting surprising connections or ironies. The post maintains a mix of scientific, political, and cultural topics, with Scott's commentary ranging from serious analysis to humorous observations. Shorter summary
Nov 08, 2014
ssc
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More Links For November 2014

20 min • 3,094 words • 302 comments
Scott shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on scientific studies, political news, cultural phenomena, and personal observations across various fields. Longer summary
This post is a collection of links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, political news, and cultural phenomena. Scott covers a wide range of subjects, from the effects of ultraviolet radiation on weight gain to the decline of cults, global inequality trends, genetic links to violent crime, and the concept of competitive governance. He also discusses recent political events, media controversies, and developments in artificial intelligence research. The post includes personal observations, book recommendations, and reflections on social dynamics within online communities. Shorter summary
Oct 07, 2014
ssc
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Tumblr on MIRI

49 min • 7,446 words • 344 comments
The post analyzes a debate about the effectiveness of MIRI, an AI safety organization, focusing on critiques of their academic output and defenses of their outreach efforts. Longer summary
This post discusses a debate on Tumblr about the effectiveness of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), an organization focused on AI safety. It covers critiques of MIRI's lack of academic publications and citations, as well as defenses of their outreach and strategic research efforts. The post examines arguments about MIRI's team qualifications, research output, and impact on the AI research community. Shorter summary
May 06, 2014
ssc
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Not Even A Real Links Post, Just A Blatant Ad

2 min • 213 words • 21 comments
Scott Alexander promotes a charity event, encouraging donations to MIRI or Sankara Eye Foundation to help them win valuable services. Longer summary
Scott Alexander is promoting a charity event where the organization with the most unique donors of $10 or more by midnight wins valuable services. He encourages readers to donate to MIRI (Machine Intelligence Research Institute), which works on ensuring a positive singularity and friendly AI. MIRI is close to the top place with only a few hours left. Scott also mentions the option to donate to the current leader, Sankara Eye Foundation, which provides eye care for poor Indian children. Shorter summary
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