A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary

This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary

A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary

This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

In 'Dominion', conservative Christian Matthew Scully makes a comprehensive case for animal welfare, critiquing practices like factory farming and hunting from religious, ethical, and scientific perspectives. Longer summary

Matthew Scully's 'Dominion' is a comprehensive exploration of animal welfare from a conservative Christian perspective. Scully, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, argues that humans have a moral obligation to show mercy to animals based on religious, ethical, and scientific grounds. He critiques various practices including factory farming, hunting, and animal experimentation, while also engaging with philosophical arguments about animal consciousness. The book combines personal experiences, biblical interpretation, and criticism of both conservative and liberal approaches to animal rights. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the effectiveness of education by examining how much factual knowledge people retain after schooling. He presents survey data showing that many adults, including college students, struggle to recall basic facts taught in school. The post explores why this might be, discussing the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and spaced repetition. Scott proposes that people mainly remember information they encounter regularly in daily life, rather than what they learned in school. He concludes by questioning the usefulness of most schooling beyond basic skills, suggesting that cultural osmosis might be more effective for long-term knowledge retention. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that intelligence is a useful, non-Platonic concept, and that this understanding supports the coherence of AI risk concerns. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the claim that AI doomers are 'Platonists' who believe in an objective concept of intelligence. He explains that intelligence, like other concepts, is a bundle of useful correlations that exist in a normal, fuzzy way. Scott demonstrates how intelligence is a useful concept by showing correlations between different cognitive abilities in humans and animals. He then argues that thinking about AI in terms of intelligence has been fruitful, citing the success of approaches that focus on increasing compute and training data. Finally, he explains how this understanding of intelligence is sufficient for the concept of an 'intelligence explosion' to be coherent. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the challenges of putting statistical findings into context, showing how different comparisons can make the same statistic seem either significant or trivial. He provides numerous examples of effect sizes and correlations from various fields to illustrate this point. The post aims to promote awareness of how statistics can be manipulated and encourages readers to be vigilant when interpreting contextual comparisons. Scott also acknowledges the limitations of using standardized effect sizes but argues for their utility in certain situations where more specific measures are difficult to comprehend. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his California ballot recommendations, updating some of his views and providing additional context on various races and propositions. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's California ballot recommendations. It covers various topics including Prop 31's impact on vaping, the Service Employees International Union's tactics regarding dialysis regulations, Newsom's campaign spending, Oakland mayoral race, and other ballot measures. Scott also updates some of his recommendations based on reader input, particularly for the Attorney General race. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, discussing the potential for future AI capabilities and the nature of human intelligence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, arguing that current AI limitations don't necessarily prove statistical AI is a dead end. He discusses the scaling hypothesis, compares AI development to human cognitive development, and suggests that 'world-modeling' may emerge from pattern-matching abilities rather than being a distinct, hard-coded function. Alexander also considers the potential capabilities of future AI systems, even if they don't achieve human-like general intelligence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a monthly collection of 42 diverse links covering topics from science, politics, culture, and technology, highlighting interesting findings and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 42 diverse links and topics, ranging from scientific studies to political news and cultural observations. Scott Alexander curates these links monthly, covering a wide array of subjects including zoology, sociology, economics, psychology, technology, and more. The links often highlight interesting or surprising findings, such as studies on cult demographics, obesity research controversies, and the effects of testosterone on belief in minority positions. Scott also includes humorous content, political commentary, and discussions on current events and social trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 37 links and interesting facts, covering topics from AI research and educational methods to historical anecdotes and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 diverse links and interesting facts. Topics range from politics, technology, and science to history, culture, and economics. The post includes updates on AI research, discussions of educational methods, unusual historical anecdotes, and commentary on current events. Scott Alexander presents these with his characteristic mix of curiosity, humor, and analytical insight, often adding personal thoughts or highlighting particularly intriguing aspects of each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a Bayesian theory of willpower as a process of weighing evidence from different mental processes to determine actions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a new Bayesian theory of willpower, disagreeing with previous models like glucose depletion, opportunity cost minimization, and mental agent conflicts. He suggests willpower is a process of weighing evidence from different mental processes: a prior on motionlessness, reinforcement learning, and conscious calculations. The basal ganglia then resolves this evidence to determine actions. Scott explores how this model explains the effects of dopaminergic drugs on willpower and discusses implications for understanding mental illness and productivity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander warns about the potential misinterpretation of odds ratios in studies, explaining how to convert them to effect sizes for more accurate understanding. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential for misinterpreting odds ratios in statistical studies, using a personal anecdote from a journal club. He explains how odds ratios can seem more significant than they actually are, and provides a method for converting them to effect sizes for better interpretation. The post includes a reference to Chen's study on interpreting odds ratios in epidemiological studies and gives an example of how a seemingly impressive odds ratio can translate to a more modest effect size. Scott emphasizes the importance of careful comparison between studies that report results using different metrics. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering recent studies, unusual historical events, technological developments, and various curiosities across multiple fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items on diverse topics. It covers studies on pornography's effects, unusual military proposals, charter schools' success, climate change predictions, animal rights, restorative justice in schools, parenting advice, sexual selection theory, AI-generated content, breastfeeding patterns, visualization of classical music, Soviet whaling, cancel culture, housing legislation, embryo screening, retractions of scientific studies, gene drives, drug pricing, UFO sightings, cryopreservation, air conditioning efficiency, genetic testing for medication response, social justice terminology trends, napping benefits, nootropics survey results, Bitcoin price surge, transformer architecture in machine learning, fact-checking errors in popular books, challenges to persistence research, fringe ideologies in Japan, AI progress on language understanding, climate change risks, and various other curiosities and scientific findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander highlights diverse comments on the NIMBY debate, exploring contrasting views on urban living and various aspects of urban development. Longer summary

This post highlights various comments on the NIMBY debate, showcasing the stark differences in people's preferences for urban vs. suburban living. It explores how these differing views can lead to heated debates and misunderstandings. The post also discusses various aspects of urban development, including housing prices, city planning, and economic effects. Scott Alexander emphasizes the need to acknowledge diverse preferences and solve urban problems before advocating for increased density. He also presents counterarguments to some of his original points and additional perspectives on urban development issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between economic development, social changes, and happiness, concluding that happiness levels can change over time but are more influenced by intangible factors than by economic growth. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the relationship between economic development, social changes, and happiness levels across different countries and groups. He explores Scott Sumner's question of whether anything matters for happiness, given that many countries show no increase in happiness despite significant improvements. Alexander examines data on African-Americans, women, and various countries, finding that happiness levels do change in response to social trends, even over decades. He notes that economic growth may increase happiness, but other factors like freedom and democracy seem more influential. The post concludes that happiness can change, but intangible factors are likely more important than money, even when lifting countries out of poverty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques three articles on poverty, proposing a framework to categorize poverty approaches, and reluctantly advocates for basic income as the best available solution despite its flaws. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews three articles on poverty and explains why he disagrees with all of them. He categorizes different approaches to poverty using a grid with axes of 'competitive vs cooperative' and 'tractable vs intractable'. Scott positions himself in the 'cooperative' but 'intractable' quadrant, expressing skepticism about both the exploitation narrative and the effectiveness of most anti-poverty programs. He argues that poverty is largely due to genetics and deep cultural factors that are difficult to change. Despite reservations, he reluctantly supports a basic income guarantee as the least bad solution. The post also touches on global poverty, economic growth, and open borders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, examining Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms, while expressing uncertainty about claimed long-term impacts on adult earnings. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, focusing on Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms. He explores studies showing teachers account for about 10% of variance in student test scores, with effects decaying quickly over time. However, some controversial studies claim long-term impacts on adult earnings. Scott examines methodological issues, potential biases, and alternative explanations, ultimately expressing uncertainty about the validity of these long-term effects. He suggests non-cognitive factors like behavior might explain persistent impacts if they exist, but remains skeptical given the contrast with research showing minimal parental influence on outcomes. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and studies covering education, race, healthcare, and various other topics, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each item. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post containing various news stories, studies, and interesting findings from different fields. The post covers topics ranging from education and healthcare to genetics and AI safety. Scott discusses several studies about racial achievement gaps, education outcomes, and healthcare system comparisons. He also shares interesting findings about animals, medical coding systems, and various social and economic issues. The post maintains a light tone while discussing serious topics, often adding humorous asides or personal observations. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, politics, economics, and culture, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting stories and studies. The topics range widely from scientific studies about CBT efficacy and homosexuality in fruit flies, to political events like the Baltimore riots aftermath and FIFA scandals, to cultural curiosities like Chinese translations of Finnegan's Wake and crash blossom headlines. The post includes some interesting technology stories like AI safety and Russian smart billboards, economic studies about education and art museums, and various sociological studies and experiments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Willpower' by Baumeister and Tierney, finding it disappointing for its pop science approach and failure to address controversies in willpower research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength' by Roy Baumeister and John Tierney. He expresses disappointment with the book's pop science approach and lack of in-depth exploration of the controversies surrounding willpower research. The review outlines key points from the book, discusses ongoing debates in the field, and presents Scott's own thoughts on how willpower might work. He critiques the book for not addressing important controversies and research challenges in the field of willpower studies. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics like Chinese religion, economics, science, and technology, with commentary on their broader implications. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Topics range from Chinese religion to Venezuelan economics, from police body cameras to psychedelics research. Notable items include studies about police body cameras reducing misconduct, BPA affecting brain development, and psychedelics potentially protecting against mental illness. The post also covers geopolitical developments like Cuba-US relations and Venezuela's economic troubles, as well as scientific advances like AI poker and mammoth cloning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques feminist stereotyping of nerds, arguing that nerds' social struggles are real and not simply male entitlement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Laurie Penny's article about 'nerd entitlement,' arguing that feminists often unfairly stereotype and shame nerdy men. He contends that nerds' social difficulties and pain are real, and not simply a result of male entitlement or privilege. Alexander criticizes the tendency to dismiss nerds' struggles and accuse them of misogyny, arguing this perpetuates harmful stereotypes. He calls for more understanding and nuance in discussions of gender, privilege, and social dynamics in nerd culture. Shorter summary

A links roundup covering topics from ISIS dating sites to space exploration, scientific studies, and cultural observations, featuring Scott's commentary and analysis on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post presenting various news and studies. It covers diverse topics including a dating site run by ISIS, space exploration news about Orion and SpaceX, studies about omega-3 fats and psychosis, Chinese censorship of puns, controversies around doxxing in Ferguson, research on glial cells and intelligence, poker tournament winners linked to effective altruism, and various other scientific studies and cultural observations. Shorter summary

Scott examines evidence for racial bias in the US criminal justice system, finding some bias in certain areas but not others, and concluding that claims of pervasive racism are overstated. Longer summary

This post analyzes racial bias in the US criminal justice system, reviewing studies on various aspects like police stops, arrests, prosecutions, and sentencing. Scott finds evidence of racial bias in some areas (e.g. capital punishment, sentence length) but little or no bias in others (e.g. arrests for violent crimes, prosecutions). He concludes that while there is some racial bias, claims of pervasive systemic racism are overstated. However, he notes that even without explicit bias, the system can still disproportionately harm black people through indirect means like drug laws or poverty-related factors. Shorter summary