Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

Scott argues that Trump supporters and conservative-aligned people who push back on bad administration policies should be supported rather than pressured to publicly denounce Trump, as they're often the only ones who can effectively prevent worse outcomes.

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya.

Scott explains why firing bureaucrats wouldn't reduce red tape, as bureaucratic delays come from legal requirements and mandates rather than staff numbers, using the FDA and other examples to illustrate his point.

Scott Alexander examines how compounding pharmacies are producing cheaper versions of GLP-1 agonist drugs, exploring the economics, safety, and future implications of this practice.

Scott Alexander updates on Lumina probiotic, discussing FDA trials, effectiveness, potential risks, and his nuanced stance on the product.

Scott Alexander reviews Lantern Bioworks' Lumina, a genetically modified bacterium designed to prevent tooth decay, discussing its science, safety, and commercialization plans.

Scott Alexander examines the complexities of abolishing the FDA and proposes more practical alternatives to increase medical innovation while maintaining safeguards.

Scott Alexander analyzes the economic and societal implications of semaglutide, a new effective weight loss drug, and its potential to reshape obesity treatment.

Scott Alexander investigates the reliability of dietary supplements, finding that while issues exist, most are not completely fake as some media reports claim.

Scott Alexander proposes using high-dose oral progesterone as a potential low-cost alternative to Zulresso for treating postpartum depression, based on pharmacological research.

Scott Alexander argues that doctors should prescribe fluvoxamine for COVID-19 despite FDA inaction, urging them to overcome discomfort with off-label use when evidence supports it.

Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his previous article about FDA approval of Paxlovid, acknowledging some valid points while maintaining his criticism of the approval process.

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism.

Scott Alexander defends his criticism of the FDA's approval process in the infant fish oil case, arguing that systemic issues cause harmful delays even when the FDA follows its mandate.

Scott Alexander corrects and expands on the story of Omegaven, a life-saving infant nutritional fluid, using it to illustrate systemic issues with medical regulation and drug approval.

Scott Alexander argues that the FDA is too strict, not too lax, and proposes unbundling FDA approval to allow for more nuanced drug regulation.

Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy.

Scott Alexander investigates the optimal dosage of Lexapro, comparing it to other antidepressants and exploring the reasons behind its effectiveness at lower doses.

Scott Alexander explores the history and mechanism of DNP, a dangerous but effective weight-loss drug, and discusses recent developments in safer mitochondrial uncoupling agents.

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease.

Scott Alexander presents a case for skepticism about psychedelic therapy in psychiatry, outlining seven points of concern while still supporting further research.

Scott Alexander examines the rise, fall, and alleged resurrection of the antidepressant NSI-189, expressing skepticism about its efficacy and the broader challenges in developing new antidepressants.

Scott Alexander argues that the 33% rate of post-marketing safety events for FDA-approved drugs is not necessarily concerning and explains why post-marketing surveillance is a normal part of drug safety monitoring.

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms.