Scott argues against the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' by showing it's applied inconsistently across the political spectrum, examining and rejecting various proposed distinctions about what criticism should be allowed, and advocating instead for a liberal solution where all criticism is permitted but violence is always the perpetrator's sole responsibility. Longer summary

Scott critiques the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' - the idea that harsh criticism of a group can make you responsible for subsequent violence against that group. He provides numerous examples across the political spectrum (from Trump to Muslims to health insurance CEOs) to show the concept is applied inconsistently and opportunistically. He examines and rejects various proposed distinctions (harsh vs mild criticism, policies vs individuals, powerful vs weak targets) as either arbitrary or contradictory. Scott argues for a liberal solution: any criticism should be allowed, violence is never legitimate, and perpetrators bear 100% responsibility for their actions. He acknowledges some edge cases around incitement and hate speech laws, but maintains that normal legal frameworks handle these better than the 'stochastic terrorism' concept. Shorter summary

Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary

Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, addressing criticisms about the post's timing and tone, defending his characterization of Adams' interest in manipulation, discussing the reach of Adams' podcast, and (reluctantly) clarifying his position on Adams' controversial race-related comments. The post includes updates acknowledging that Adams' podcast was more influential than initially stated and that his manipulation techniques coexisted with genuine helpfulness to many people. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary

This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book about Hugo Chavez, analyzing his rise to power, rule, and impact on Venezuela, while drawing parallels to other populist leaders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Comandante', a book about Hugo Chavez's rise to power and rule in Venezuela. The review describes Chavez as a charismatic showman who used populist tactics, media control, and oil wealth to consolidate power, while implementing policies that ultimately damaged Venezuela's economy and institutions. Scott draws parallels between Chavez and other populist leaders, particularly Donald Trump, and reflects on the vulnerabilities of democratic systems to such figures. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes media tendencies to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements, arguing we should focus more on their stated positions and actions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's tendency to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements or 'dog whistles'. He argues this often ignores the politicians' actual stated beliefs and policies in favor of overanalyzing gaffes or interpreting statements as secret codes. The post examines three cases: Ted Cruz being called anti-Semitic for saying 'New York values', Ken Livingstone being labeled anti-Semitic for comments about Hitler and Zionism, and Donald Trump being called openly sexist despite his pro-women hiring record. Scott suggests we should be more skeptical of media claims to have special insight into politicians' true beliefs and instead focus on their stated positions and past actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Trump's 'The Art of the Deal', finding it mostly autobiographical with little useful business advice, and revealing Trump's deal-focused worldview. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Donald Trump's 1988 book 'The Art of the Deal'. The review notes that while the book promises business advice, only a small portion actually contains such advice, which is vague and not particularly useful. The bulk of the book is an autobiography focused on Trump's real estate deals. Alexander observes that Trump's approach to business is less about changing systems and more about gaming existing ones through coordination, often involving strategic deception. The review highlights Trump's focus on hiring the best people and knowing the right connections, which Alexander sees as potentially explaining Trump's approach to politics. Overall, Alexander portrays Trump as having a narrow, deal-focused worldview that, while alien to the reviewer, has proven successful. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines different models of social class in America, exploring their implications for understanding society and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various perspectives on social class in America, focusing on the distinction between economic and social class. He summarizes and compares several models of class structure, including those by Siderea, Michael Church, and Unqualified Reservations. The post explores how these models relate to political views, cultural signifiers, and social mobility. Scott also reflects on how class intersects with other factors like politics, race, and education, and considers the implications of class analysis for understanding social phenomena and policy outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks the idea that Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, revealing that Bernie Sanders actually has much whiter support, and uses this to challenge common narratives about race and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the media narrative that Donald Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, showing it to be unsupported by polling data. He then reveals that Bernie Sanders, not Trump, has a much higher ratio of white to non-white support within his party. Scott uses this to illustrate two points: 1) 'white' in political discussions often means the 'Red Tribe' rather than literal race, and 2) low minority representation in a group doesn't necessarily indicate racism. He suggests that Sanders' lack of minority support might be due to him being seen as a 'weird intellectual signaling-laden countercultural movement', similar to other groups with low minority representation like atheists or BDSM enthusiasts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the rise of outsider political figures like Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, attributing their unexpected success to a growing trend of ideological polarization and distrust of the establishment. He argues that as the political spectrum widens, traditional politicians struggle to balance appealing to their base while remaining electable, creating an opening for candidates who signal their opposition to the establishment. The post compares Trump's and Corbyn's seemingly opposite yet similar rises to power, and suggests this trend might explain other political surprises like Bernie Sanders' popularity and Obama's 2008 victory over Hillary Clinton. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various news articles and studies, covering topics from police tactics and Trump's campaign to behavioral genetics and dietary research. Longer summary

A diverse collection of links covering various topics, with Scott Alexander's commentary on each. The post includes news about politics, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Highlights include a discussion of police tactics against drug dealers, updates on Trump's campaign, studies about bombing in Vietnam, diet research, and behavioral genetics. The post maintains a light and sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious topics, with Scott adding his characteristic analytical perspective and occasional wit to each link. Shorter summary