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23 posts found
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Jul 09, 2026
acx
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Introducing Plan A

33 min • 4,971 words • 778 comments • 437 likes
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040. Longer summary
Scott introduces Plan A, a detailed roadmap created by Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project for navigating the AI transition safely. The plan envisions a trustless regulatory agreement between the US and China built on controlling chip supply and auditing data centers, followed by a 'golden mean' approach where both countries rapidly advance to top-human-genius-level AI while pausing before superintelligence. During this pause in the 2030s, billions of genius-level AIs would solve alignment and other major problems while being kept in controlled environments, eventually leading to fully aligned superintelligence around 2040 that helps chart humanity's future. The post frames this as offering a positive vision that satisfies both safety concerns and accelerationist goals through triple-digit GDP growth and rapid problem-solving. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2026
acx
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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

27 min • 4,045 words • 269 comments • 181 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress. Longer summary
Scott analyzes why Ajeya Cotra's landmark 2020 'Biological Anchors' report predicted AGI around 2050, when current estimates now center on the late 2020s to 2040s. The report correctly predicted the scaling hypothesis and AI boom, but underestimated one crucial parameter: algorithmic progress was actually 200% per year instead of the predicted 30%. This single error, compounded across exponential growth, threw off the entire timeline by about twenty years. Scott examines various contemporary critiques of the report, finding that most concerns about the methodology were actually non-issues, while one throwaway concern (about algorithmic progress estimates being poorly researched) turned out to be the fatal flaw. He concludes this demonstrates both the power and limitations of probabilistic forecasting. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
acx
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Nov 26, 2025
acx
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Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China

32 min • 4,875 words • 296 comments • 245 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore. Longer summary
Scott argues that AI safety regulation will not significantly harm America's position in the AI race with China. He breaks down the race into three levels (compute, models, and applications), showing America has a massive 10x compute advantage while China's strategy focuses on applications. He demonstrates that proposed AI safety regulations would add only 1-2% to training costs - trivial compared to America's compute lead. The real threats to US advantage are chip export policies and smuggling, where NVIDIA lobbies to sell advanced chips to China, potentially reducing the US advantage from 30x to 1.7x. Scott notes the irony that many people opposing safety regulation on China grounds simultaneously support chip exports, and argues safety regulation might actually help the US by improving security, enabling compute governance, and preventing future overreactions to AI incidents. Shorter summary
Apr 24, 2025
acx
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AI Futures: Blogging And AMA

3 min • 415 words • 189 comments • 87 likes • podcast (4 min)
Scott announces his collaboration with AI Futures Project's blog and their upcoming AMA, highlighting recent posts including one about AI time horizons that was validated by new OpenAI data. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces he will be shifting most of his AI blogging to the AI Futures Project blog, where he has already co-written several posts. He highlights three recent posts, particularly one about AI time horizons that was validated by new OpenAI data showing faster horizon growth than previously estimated. He also announces an upcoming AMA with the AI Futures Project team on ACX. Shorter summary
Apr 08, 2025
acx
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My Takeaways From AI 2027

22 min • 3,367 words • 420 comments • 263 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott shares his main takeaways from the AI 2027 scenario project, discussing various predictions about AI development including cyberwarfare, geopolitical risks, and the nature of the coming singularity. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reflects on key insights from the AI 2027 scenario project, highlighting several important predictions and considerations about AI development. He discusses how cyberwarfare might be AI's first major geopolitical impact, the potential for geopolitical instability during AI development, and the concept of a 'software-only singularity' where AI progress outpaces physical automation. The post explores the diminishing relevance of open-source AI, the critical role of AI communication methods in alignment, and the importance of company insiders in determining AI safety outcomes. Scott also discusses controversial topics like potential rapid automation and AI's persuasive capabilities. Shorter summary
Apr 03, 2025
acx
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Introducing AI 2027

9 min • 1,307 words • 606 comments • 516 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary
Feb 27, 2025
acx
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Links For February 2025

45 min • 6,840 words • 933 comments • 212 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary
In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary
Oct 05, 2023
acx
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Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate

38 min • 5,768 words • 457 comments • 96 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander reviews a debate on AI development pauses, discussing various strategies and their potential impacts on AI safety and progress. Longer summary
Scott Alexander summarizes a debate on pausing AI development, outlining five main strategies discussed: Simple Pause, Surgical Pause, Regulatory Pause, Total Stop, and No Pause. He explains the arguments for and against each approach, including considerations like compute overhang, international competition, and the potential for regulatory overreach. The post also covers additional perspectives from debate participants and Scott's own thoughts on the feasibility and implications of various pause strategies. Shorter summary
Aug 28, 2023
acx
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Mantic Monday 8/28/23

18 min • 2,697 words • 234 comments • 74 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts. Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with an analysis of the LK-99 superconductor prediction markets, suggesting they were overly optimistic due to media hype rather than expert opinion. The author then discusses the Salem/CSPI prediction market tournament, highlighting how the top performers used various strategies beyond just predictive accuracy. The post introduces the concept of prediction portfolios, which allow betting on broader trends rather than specific outcomes. It also mentions a new prediction market for flight delays called Wingman.WTF. Finally, the post reviews current political prediction markets and other forecasting-related news. Shorter summary
Jul 28, 2023
acx
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Bad Definitions Of "Democracy" And "Accountability" Shade Into Totalitarianism

10 min • 1,505 words • 712 comments • 318 likes • podcast (10 min)
Scott Alexander argues that misusing terms like 'democratic' and 'accountable' can inadvertently justify totalitarianism, and suggests more careful usage of these terms. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques the misuse of terms like 'democratic' and 'accountable', arguing that when taken to extremes, they can justify totalitarianism. He illustrates this through examples in religious freedom, charitable donations, and AI development, showing how demands for complete 'democracy' or 'accountability' in all aspects of life can lead to the erosion of personal freedoms. The post suggests that these terms should be used more carefully, with 'democratic' applied mainly to government structures and 'accountable' reserved for specific power dynamics, to avoid inadvertently promoting totalitarian ideas. Shorter summary
Jul 17, 2023
acx
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Contra The xAI Alignment Plan

21 min • 3,140 words • 435 comments • 190 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander critiques Elon Musk's xAI alignment strategy of creating a 'maximally curious' AI, arguing it's both unfeasible and potentially dangerous. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques Elon Musk's alignment strategy for xAI, which aims to create a 'maximally curious' AI. He argues that this approach is both unfeasible and potentially dangerous. Scott points out that a curious AI might not prioritize human welfare and could lead to unintended consequences. He also explains that current AI technology cannot reliably implement such specific goals. The post suggests that focusing on getting AIs to follow orders reliably should be the priority, rather than deciding on a single guiding principle now. Scott appreciates Musk's intention to avoid programming specific morality into AI but believes the proposed solution is flawed. Shorter summary
Jun 20, 2023
acx
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Davidson On Takeoff Speeds

40 min • 6,174 words • 468 comments • 104 likes • podcast (40 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's Compute-Centric Framework (CCF) for AI takeoff speeds, which models how quickly AI capabilities might progress. The model predicts a gradual but fast takeoff, with AI going from automating 20% of jobs to 100% in about 3 years, reaching superintelligence within a year after that. Scott discusses the key parameters of the model, its implications, and how it compares to other AI forecasting approaches. He notes that while the model predicts a 'gradual' takeoff, it still describes a rapid and potentially dangerous progression of AI capabilities. Shorter summary
Apr 05, 2023
acx
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Most Technologies Aren't Races

12 min • 1,754 words • 553 comments • 259 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander challenges the idea of an 'AI race', comparing AI to other transformative technologies and discussing scenarios where the race concept might apply. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues against the notion of an 'AI race' between countries, suggesting that most technologies, including potentially AI, are not truly races with clear winners. He compares AI to other transformative technologies like electricity, automobiles, and computers, which didn't significantly alter global power balances. The post explains that the concept of an 'AI race' mainly makes sense in two scenarios: the need to align AI before it becomes potentially destructive, or in a 'hard takeoff' scenario where AI rapidly self-improves. Scott criticizes those who simultaneously dismiss alignment concerns while emphasizing the need to 'win' the AI race. He also discusses post-singularity scenarios, arguing that many current concerns would likely become irrelevant in such a radically transformed world. Shorter summary
Mar 14, 2023
acx
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Why I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)

28 min • 4,264 words • 590 comments • 207 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander examines optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for AI risk, weighing the potential for intermediate AIs to help solve alignment against the threat of deceptive 'sleeper agent' AIs. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the varying estimates of AI extinction risk among experts and presents his own perspective, balancing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. He argues that intermediate AIs could help solve alignment problems before a world-killing AI emerges, but also considers the possibility of 'sleeper agent' AIs that pretend to be aligned while waiting for an opportunity to act against human interests. The post explores key assumptions that differentiate optimistic and pessimistic views on AI risk, including AI coherence, cooperation, alignment solvability, superweapon feasibility, and the nature of AI progress. Shorter summary
Feb 20, 2023
acx
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Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

49 min • 7,468 words • 426 comments • 144 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews his predictions from 2018 for 2023, grading himself on accuracy across various domains including AI, world affairs, US culture and politics, economics, science/technology, and existential risks. He then offers new predictions for 2028, focusing heavily on AI developments and their potential impacts on society, economics, and politics. Shorter summary
Aug 08, 2022
acx
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Why Not Slow AI Progress?

20 min • 3,004 words • 612 comments • 181 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott examines why the AI safety community isn't more actively opposing AI development, exploring the complex dynamics between AI capabilities and safety efforts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the complex relationship between AI capabilities research and AI safety efforts, exploring why the AI safety community is not more actively opposing AI development. He explains how major AI companies were founded by safety-conscious individuals, the risks of a 'race dynamic' in AI development, and the challenges of regulating AI globally. The post concludes that the current cooperation between AI capabilities companies and the alignment community may be the best strategy, despite its imperfections. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2022
acx
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Mantic Monday 6/13/22

13 min • 1,909 words • 147 comments • 50 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary
May 23, 2022
acx
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Willpower, Human and Machine

7 min • 939 words • 194 comments • 74 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott Alexander explores parallels between human willpower and potential AI development, suggesting future AIs might experience weakness of will similar to humans. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of willpower in humans and AI, drawing parallels between evolutionary drives and AI training. He suggests that both humans and future AIs might experience a struggle between instinctual drives and higher-level planning modules. The post discusses how evolution has instilled basic drives in animals, which then developed their own ways to satisfy these drives. Similarly, AI training might first develop 'instinctual' responses before evolving more complex planning abilities. Scott posits that this could lead to AIs experiencing weakness of will, contradicting the common narrative of hyper-focused AIs in discussions of AI risk. He also touches on the nature of consciousness and agency, questioning whether the 'I' of willpower is the same as the 'I' of conscious access. Shorter summary
Jun 10, 2020
ssc
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The Obligatory GPT-3 Post

24 min • 3,643 words • 263 comments • podcast (27 min)
Scott Alexander examines GPT-3's capabilities, improvements over GPT-2, and potential implications for AI development through scaling. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses GPT-3, a large language model developed by OpenAI. He compares its capabilities to its predecessor GPT-2, noting improvements in text generation and basic arithmetic. The post explores the implications of GPT-3's performance, discussing scaling laws in neural networks and potential future developments. Scott ponders whether continued scaling of such models could lead to more advanced AI capabilities, while also considering the limitations and uncertainties surrounding this approach. Shorter summary
Mar 25, 2019
ssc
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Neurons And Intelligence: A Birdbrained Perspective

9 min • 1,291 words • 139 comments • podcast (11 min)
The post examines the relationship between neuron count and intelligence across species, challenging traditional brain size measures and exploring implications for AI development. Longer summary
This post discusses the relationship between brain size, neuron count, and intelligence across different species. It challenges traditional measures like absolute brain size and encephalization quotient, focusing instead on the number of cortical neurons as a key factor in intelligence. The post highlights birds as an example, explaining how their dense neuron packing allows them to achieve primate-level intelligence with much smaller brains. The author then explores the implications of this for understanding intelligence and its potential impact on AI development, suggesting that AI capabilities might scale linearly with computing power. The post ends with a humorous reference to pilot whales, which have more cortical neurons than humans but aren't known for higher intelligence. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2017
ssc
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Links 10/17: Martin LuthURL

14 min • 2,116 words • 428 comments
A collection of interesting links covering topics from ancient Roman demographics to modern AI developments, criminal justice issues, and cultural oddities. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting news and articles. Topics include ancient Roman life expectancy data, Chinese censorship expanding to group chats, cruise ship pollution, AI developments like AlphaGo Zero, criminal justice issues around drug rehab work camps and police body cameras, and various other scientific, technological and cultural items. The post maintains a light tone while covering both serious topics like Puerto Rico's ongoing crisis and quirky ones like Viking reenactors and Halloween costumes. Shorter summary
Feb 06, 2017
ssc
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Notes From The Asilomar Conference On Beneficial AI

19 min • 2,929 words • 480 comments
Scott Alexander shares his experiences and insights from the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI, covering various aspects of AI development, risks, and ethical considerations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI. The conference brought together diverse experts to discuss AI risks, from technological unemployment to superintelligence. Key points include: the normalization of AI safety research, economists' views on technological unemployment, proposed solutions like retraining workers, advances in AI goal alignment research, improvements in AlphaGo and its implications, issues with AI transparency, political considerations in AI development, and debates on ethical AI principles. Scott notes the star-studded attendance and the surreal experience of discussing crucial AI topics with leading experts in the field. Shorter summary
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