Scott Alexander examines how Curtis Yarvin's current support for Trump-style populism directly contradicts his earlier detailed writings warning against exactly this type of right-wing populist movement. Longer summary

Scott analyzes how Curtis Yarvin (aka Mencius Moldbug) has contradicted his own earlier writings by supporting Trump-style right-wing populism. Scott shows how Yarvin's original work specifically warned against populist strongmen and laid out specific requirements for legitimate autocracy, including non-democratic selection, oversight by a board of directors, and cryptographic safeguards. The post details how Yarvin previously called right-wing populism a dangerous failure mode of his philosophy that would lead to disaster, making his current support of Trump particularly hypocritical. Scott quotes extensively from Yarvin's old blog to demonstrate the magnitude of his reversal. Shorter summary

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post featuring various interesting news, studies, and curiosities from April 2025. The post covers a wide range of topics including AI developments (particularly around OpenAI and truth-seeking AI), political updates (about Trump, immigration policy, and minimum wage effects), cultural items (like etymology of cowboy terms and medieval perception), and scientific findings. Scott maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding his own analysis or perspective on controversial topics. Shorter summary

A review of 'Two Arms and a Head', a paraplegic's memoir and argument for physician-assisted suicide, exploring the book's content and the broader debate around Medical Assistance in Dying. Longer summary

This review examines 'Two Arms and a Head', a memoir and suicide note written by Clayton Schwartz, a philosophy student who became paraplegic after a motorcycle accident. The book details the physical and emotional devastation of paraplegia, argues for the legalization of physician-assisted suicide, and criticizes society's approach to disability. The review also explores the current state of Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) and the arguments against it from disability rights organizations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that using polygenic screening to select low-risk embryos can be considered as preventing genetic disorders, drawing parallels with other accepted preventive practices. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the ethical implications of using polygenic screening to select embryos with lower risk of genetic disorders, specifically schizophrenia. He argues that this practice can be considered as prevention of the disorder, despite objections that it's merely replacing a high-risk individual with a low-risk one. To support his argument, Scott presents three analogous situations: preventing fetal alcohol syndrome, selecting embryos in IVF, and preventing child abuse through parenting workshops. He concludes that polygenic selection is ethically comparable to these widely accepted practices and can be fairly described as preventing schizophrenia. Shorter summary

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 41 diverse links and news items, covering topics from linguistics and technology to politics and popular culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from linguistics, technology, and politics to economics, science, and popular culture. Scott provides brief commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. The post includes updates on current events, interesting scientific findings, cultural trends, and academic debates. It also features some visual content like graphs, images, and embedded tweets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's book 'Antifragile', which introduces the concept of antifragility - things that gain from disorder and volatility. The book explores this concept through various domains including finance, evolution, exercise, and government policy. Taleb argues that many modern systems and approaches, in trying to reduce volatility, actually increase fragility to large shocks. The review discusses Taleb's critique of academia, his preference for practical knowledge over theory, and his views on the benefits of smaller, decentralized systems. Scott compares Taleb's ideas to other thinkers like James Scott and David Chapman, seeing 'Antifragile' as part of a broader intellectual counterculture questioning conventional approaches to knowledge and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

This post examines the pros and cons of using gene editing technologies in humans, discussing scientific, medical, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential uses, risks, and ethical implications of gene editing technologies in humans. It covers the science behind CRISPR, its safety and efficiency, the relationship between genetics and disease, and potential applications in treating conditions like cancer and HIV. The authors explore complex questions around genetic enhancement and 'designer babies', highlighting both the promise and perils of this technology. They conclude that while gene editing holds great potential, especially for certain genetic diseases, its use must be carefully regulated and ethically considered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander clarifies his intentions behind the APA photo-essay and cautions against overly negative interpretations of psychiatry or any professional field based on selective criticism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses the unexpected negative reactions to his previous APA photo-essay, which was intended as a lighthearted critique rather than a condemnation of psychiatry. He draws parallels between the tech industry and psychiatry, noting how both can be unfairly portrayed through selective reporting of their worst aspects. Scott emphasizes that while there are issues in psychiatry, the field also includes many dedicated professionals doing important work. He encourages readers to be skeptical of overly critical portrayals of any field, including his own writings, invoking the concept of Gell-Mann Amnesia. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items and interesting links covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as animal behavior, space exploration, technology, politics, environmental issues, and scientific research. The post includes brief summaries or commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or personal reflection. Some notable items include the story of the Soviet space shuttle Buran, a new California law on pet shops, developments in AI and cryptocurrency, and concerns about insect population decline. The post also touches on social issues like racial approval ratings for Trump and the controversial Gillette commercial. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that public outrage over specific misdeeds is not arbitrary, but a strategic way to enforce important social norms with limited resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Bryan Caplan's article about the arbitrariness of public outrage, proposing a different theory. He argues that people get upset over violations of established norms because it's an efficient way to use limited enforcement resources. Scott uses examples of police prioritizing certain crimes and the international response to chemical weapons to illustrate his point. He extends this reasoning to explain public outrage over sexual harassment and suggests that enforcing taboos against clearly defined bad behaviors can be more effective than trying to prevent all forms of misconduct. The post concludes by applying this logic to the case of China's treatment of Uighurs, arguing that strongly enforcing the norm against putting minorities in concentration camps can have broader preventative effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from science and politics to economics and culture, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, economic trends, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on many of the links, often adding context or his own thoughts. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with a focus on sharing intriguing information across diverse fields. Shorter summary

A links post featuring various news stories, research findings, and interesting facts, from Jewish pirates to ancient Roman artifacts to the fallout of various Trump-related controversies. Longer summary

This is a links post covering diverse topics in news and research. Stories include historical facts (like Jewish pirates in the Caribbean), scientific research (BDNF and sunlight correlation, Leek & Jager's paper on scientific findings), current events (Trump's FDA pick, immigration numbers, anti-Semitic incidents), technological developments (Uber self-driving cars, electric planes), and various social and political topics. The post follows Scott's typical links format, offering brief commentary and often humorous observations on each link. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from Judaism and science to media bias and hate crime hoaxes, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, where he shares interesting articles and studies he's found with brief commentary on each. The links cover a wide range of topics including religious practices, scientific research, healthcare policy, media bias, and social issues. Among the notable items are studies on early school starting age and crime rates, fake hate crime reports after Trump's election, and research on gender differences in medical care. The tone is analytical and sometimes skeptical, with Scott often providing additional context or pointing out methodological issues. Shorter summary