Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary

This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary

A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary

This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the effectiveness of education by examining how much factual knowledge people retain after schooling. He presents survey data showing that many adults, including college students, struggle to recall basic facts taught in school. The post explores why this might be, discussing the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and spaced repetition. Scott proposes that people mainly remember information they encounter regularly in daily life, rather than what they learned in school. He concludes by questioning the usefulness of most schooling beyond basic skills, suggesting that cultural osmosis might be more effective for long-term knowledge retention. Shorter summary

A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming an illusion of moral decline, pointing out methodological flaws and suggesting alternative explanations for the perception of declining morality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study by Mastroianni and Gilbert (MG) that claims there is an illusion of moral decline. The study argues that while people consistently believe morality is declining, objective measures show it has remained stable. Scott identifies several issues with the study's methodology and interpretation, including problems with timescale, accuracy, measurement, and sensitivity of the data used. He suggests that the perception of moral decline might be due to each generation judging the present by the moral standards of their youth, rather than a cognitive bias. Scott also points out that the study fails to consider many important aspects of morality in its analysis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his 2021 ivermectin analysis, acknowledging some errors but maintaining his conclusion that ivermectin likely doesn't work for COVID-19. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Alexandros Marinos' critique of his 2021 post on ivermectin studies, addressing points about individual studies, meta-analysis methods, publication bias, and new evidence since 2021. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original analysis but maintains his overall conclusion that ivermectin is likely ineffective for COVID-19. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why conservative political victories seem to cause public opinion backlashes while liberal victories don't, presenting several theories but remaining uncertain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of political backlash following major policy victories, comparing conservative and liberal wins. He notes strong backlashes against conservative victories like Trump's presidency and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but observes little to no backlash against liberal victories such as the legalization of gay marriage or the passage of Obamacare. The post presents several possible explanations for this asymmetry, including media influence, the perceived direction of history, and the visibility of immediate negative consequences. However, Scott remains uncertain about the true cause and the predictability of such backlashes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the evolution of online culture wars from atheism to feminism to race, analyzing the dynamics of these shifts and speculating on future trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander traces the evolution of online culture wars from New Atheism through feminism to the current focus on race, examining how each movement rose and fell in popularity. He analyzes the dynamics of these shifts using concepts like fashion cycles and signaling theory, and speculates on the future trajectory of culture war topics. The post explores how terms like 'SJW' and 'woke' impacted discourse, the rise and potential decline of New Socialism, and draws parallels to longer-term cycles of mainstream institutional values. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the impact of media coverage on fringe beliefs like creationism, suggesting that reduced coverage doesn't necessarily lead to their spread. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the dilemma faced by news organizations in reporting on 'stupid things', using creationism as a case study. He notes that while media coverage of creationism has declined significantly since the 2000s, the percentage of Americans believing in creationism has remained relatively stable. Organizations promoting creationism are still active, but receive far less attention. Scott suggests that this experience with creationism might indicate that aggressive media coverage and extreme measures to combat fringe beliefs (like Pizzagate or QAnon) may be unnecessary or even counterproductive. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links to interesting articles, studies, and news items on topics ranging from history and science to politics and culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including Russian city flags, archaeological hoaxes, growth mindset research, atomic gardening, AI takeoff scenarios, UFO patents, antibiotic resistance, freelance journalism laws, religious trends in the Middle East, presidential candidate support by occupation, civility in politics, pollution comparisons, open borders debates, gender reveal party accidents, historical theories about Western psychology, entrepreneurship age trends, socialist proposals, WWI myths, biological feedback mechanisms, and various other curiosities and current events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the rise and fall of New Atheism, arguing it was replaced by social justice as the dominant online 'hamartiology' explaining society's problems. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the rise and fall of New Atheism, a movement that dominated online discourse in the early 2000s. He traces its origins to the early days of the internet, when intellectual debates about religion were common, and its peak in the mid-2000s with the rise of prominent atheist authors. Scott argues that New Atheism declined around 2015 as it was supplanted by the social justice movement. He proposes that both movements served a similar psychological function as 'hamartiologies' - explanations for what's wrong with the world. New Atheism blamed religion for society's ills, while social justice focuses on racism and sexism. The essay suggests this transition reflects broader changes in how people engage in online discourse and form tribal identities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains why the controversial Culture War thread was removed from r/slatestarcodex due to harassment, and discusses the challenges of hosting spaces for difficult conversations online. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why the Culture War thread on the r/slatestarcodex subreddit was shut down and moved to a new subreddit. He describes how the thread became a unique space for civil discussion of controversial topics, but also attracted harassment and threats against Scott personally. This led to a nervous breakdown and the decision to separate the thread from his blog. Scott uses this story to illustrate broader issues around hosting spaces for difficult conversations online, and the climate of fear and censorship that can result from harassment campaigns. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how Trump's presidency has unexpectedly decreased support for his own policies, analyzing polls and proposing several explanations for this counterintuitive trend. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes how Donald Trump's presidency has paradoxically led to a decrease in support for his own political positions. The post presents several polls showing increased support for free trade, immigration, and other non-Trumpist positions since 2016. Scott proposes various explanations for this phenomenon, including disgust with Trump as a person, partisan realignment, conservatives distancing themselves from Trump, increased media focus on negative aspects of Trump's policies, shifting of goalposts, and backlash effects similar to those seen in studies of disruptive protests. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of civility and honesty in politics, warning that being sufficiently repulsive can damage one's own cause. Shorter summary

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy. Longer summary

This post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries: United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Lebanon. The authors review each country's history, constitution, democratic institutions, and human rights record to assess the extent to which liberal democracy has taken hold. They find a wide spectrum, from Tunisia's robust democracy to Iran's theocratic regime, with the other countries falling in between. The authors conclude that while it's possible for Muslim countries to adopt liberal democracy, Islam often acts as an obstacle, and most Muslim countries have only taken small steps in that direction so far. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques arguments against school vouchers, discussing potential efficiency gains and drawbacks of privatization in education, while proposing experimental approaches to school reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Nathan Robinson's arguments against school vouchers, discussing the potential efficiency gains and drawbacks of privatization in education. He compares education to other sectors like healthcare and grocery stores, analyzes the rising costs in public education, and proposes experimental approaches to school reform, including a system of small, home-based schools. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

A links roundup examining various scientific studies, social developments, and historical findings, with a particular focus on recent research about confounding variables and replication issues in science. Longer summary

This is an extensive links post covering various scientific studies, news items, and interesting facts. Scott discusses several studies about confounding variables and replication in science, historical findings about ancient civilizations, new research on topics ranging from climate change to criminology, and various social and political developments. The post starts with methodological concerns in science, moves through various research findings and historical tidbits, and ends with news about ongoing projects and obituaries. The tone is analytical but casual, with Scott often adding his own commentary and pointing out interesting implications or contradictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines political tribalism in America, arguing that people often claim tolerance while harboring strong prejudices against their outgroups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of outgroups and ingroups, arguing that people often claim to be tolerant of all groups except their perceived outgroup. He suggests that in modern American society, political tribes (Red and Blue) have become more significant than traditional demographic divisions. The essay analyzes how these tribes interact, criticize each other, and sometimes engage in self-criticism that may actually be veiled attacks on the opposing tribe. Alexander ultimately reflects on his own biases and the difficulty of genuine self-criticism and tolerance. Shorter summary

Scott shares a collection of interesting links covering topics like folklore, scientific papers, geopolitics, and cultural curiosities. Longer summary

A collection of interesting links covering diverse topics, from folklore and scientific papers to geopolitics and popular culture. The post starts with a Scottish folklore creature and its likely scientific explanation, discusses scientific papers about p-hacking and NSA's effect on searches, covers some interesting historical and cultural facts about ancient civilizations, and ends with various curiosities including tech companies' headquarters and Google's robots files. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Moloch as a metaphor for destructive societal coordination problems, using various examples to show how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of Moloch as a metaphor for destructive coordination problems in society, drawing on Allen Ginsberg's poem and various examples to illustrate how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes for all. Shorter summary

The post explores the contradiction between studies suggesting elite influence on policy and those indicating money's limited impact on politics, offering several hypotheses to reconcile these findings. Longer summary

This post discusses two seemingly contradictory political science findings: one suggesting that elite opinion strongly influences US policy, and another indicating that money has little impact on politics. The author presents several hypotheses to reconcile these findings, including the possibility that legislators are themselves elites, that elites control cultural institutions, or that money influences politics through lobbying rather than campaign contributions. The post critically examines each hypothesis, considering their strengths and weaknesses in explaining the apparent contradiction. Shorter summary

This post systematically rebuts common Reactionary political beliefs on topics like societal decline, traditional governance, progress, and social issues through data analysis and historical examples. Longer summary

This post is an extensive rebuttal to common beliefs held by the Reactionary political movement. It systematically addresses and counters Reactionary claims about societal decline, traditional monarchies, the origins and nature of progress, corporate governance models, and modern views on race and gender. The author analyzes data and historical examples to argue against Reactionary positions, while acknowledging some valid critiques and interesting ideas within the movement. The post ends by listing various rebuttals and responses to the FAQ itself from Reactionary bloggers. Shorter summary