An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary

This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nick Bostrom's 'Deep Utopia', which explores the concept of a technologically perfect utopia and discusses how to maintain meaning and purpose in such a world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nick Bostrom's book 'Deep Utopia', which explores the concept of a technologically advanced utopia where all problems are solved and people can do whatever they want. The book discusses whether such a utopia would be fulfilling or boring, and proposes various solutions to maintain meaning and purpose in such a world. Scott analyzes Bostrom's ideas, critiques some aspects, and expands on the concept, considering additional implications and scenarios not fully explored in the book. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 41 diverse links and news items, covering topics from linguistics and technology to politics and popular culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from linguistics, technology, and politics to economics, science, and popular culture. Scott provides brief commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. The post includes updates on current events, interesting scientific findings, cultural trends, and academic debates. It also features some visual content like graphs, images, and embedded tweets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses a new expert survey on long-term AI risks, highlighting the diverse scenarios considered and the lack of consensus on specific threats. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a new expert survey on long-term AI risks, conducted by Carlier, Clarke, and Schuett. Unlike previous surveys, this one focuses on people already working in AI safety and governance. The survey found a median ~10% chance of AI-related catastrophe, with individual estimates ranging from 0.1% to 100%. The survey explored six different scenarios for how AI could go wrong, including superintelligence, influence-seeking behavior, Goodharting, AI-related war, misuse by bad actors, and other possibilities. Surprisingly, all scenarios were rated as roughly equally likely, with 'other' being slightly higher. Scott notes three key takeaways: the relatively low probability assigned to unaligned AI causing extinction, the diversification of concerns beyond just superintelligence, and the lack of a unified picture of what might go wrong among experts in the field. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Reframing Superintelligence' by Eric Drexler, which proposes future AI as specialized services rather than general agents, contrasting with Nick Bostrom's scenarios. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Eric Drexler's book 'Reframing Superintelligence', which proposes that future AI may develop as a collection of specialized superintelligent services rather than general-purpose agents. The post compares this view to Nick Bostrom's more alarming scenarios in 'Superintelligence'. Scott discusses the potential safety advantages of AI services, their limitations, and some remaining concerns. He reflects on why he didn't consider this perspective earlier and acknowledges the ongoing debate in the AI alignment community about these different models of future AI development. Shorter summary

Scott examines hyperbolic growth models in population and economics, their apparent cancellation around 1960, and speculates on AI's potential to restart such growth. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of hyperbolic growth and its implications for technological and economic progress. Scott begins by discussing Heinz von Foerster's model of population growth, which predicted infinite population by 2026. He then applies this concept to economic growth, showing how it seemed to be on a hyperbolic trajectory until around 1960. The post examines why this growth pattern stopped, linking it to population growth trends. Scott also discusses the Industrial Revolution's role in this model and how it didn't significantly alter the overall growth trajectory. Finally, he speculates on the potential for AI to restart hyperbolic growth by providing a new way to convert economic resources into research capacity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the arguments for and against technological unemployment, analyzing labor force participation rates, manufacturing job losses, and economic data to determine if automation is currently causing significant job displacement. He concludes that while there's little evidence of technological unemployment happening right now, there are signs of 'technological underemployment' where automation is pushing workers from middle-skill to lower-skill jobs. The long-term impacts remain uncertain, with economists divided on whether this is a temporary adjustment or a new normal. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering a wide range of topics, from scientific studies and historical facts to current events and amusing anecdotes. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, collecting various interesting articles, studies, and facts that caught his attention. The topics range widely from scientific research (like PTSD in Roman soldiers and genetic studies) to historical curiosities (like Byzantine titles and the history of cell phones). He also comments on current events like Silicon Valley critiques and political developments. Some links are serious academic studies, while others are more lighthearted like the rules around shooting Bigfoot. Throughout the post, Scott adds brief commentary and context to help readers understand the significance of each link. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics including medical discoveries, scientific studies, social issues, and economic findings, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies. The topics range from medical discoveries to economics, from social issues to scientific studies. It includes discussions of the Brindley lecture in urology, property rights on the moon, fecal transplant effects on weight, mental health policies at Yale, studies on criminality and parenting, and various other scientific and social findings. The post presents each link with a brief commentary or explanation, often with Scott's characteristic mix of curiosity and skepticism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains the 'motte and bailey doctrine', a rhetorical fallacy, providing examples and comparing it to the 'weak man fallacy'. Longer summary

This post explains and analyzes the 'motte and bailey doctrine', a rhetorical fallacy popularized by the author. The concept involves making a controversial claim (the bailey) and then retreating to a more defensible position (the motte) when challenged. Scott provides several examples of this fallacy in action, including in religious arguments, feminism, and pseudoscience. He then compares it to the 'weak man fallacy', showing how they are mirror images of each other. The post concludes by advising readers to avoid vague, poorly-defined concepts in debates and instead focus on specific, clear propositions. Shorter summary

The post analyzes a debate about the effectiveness of MIRI, an AI safety organization, focusing on critiques of their academic output and defenses of their outreach efforts. Longer summary

This post discusses a debate on Tumblr about the effectiveness of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), an organization focused on AI safety. It covers critiques of MIRI's lack of academic publications and citations, as well as defenses of their outreach and strategic research efforts. The post examines arguments about MIRI's team qualifications, research output, and impact on the AI research community. Shorter summary

Scott presents evidence for the reality and high economic costs of racial and gender discrimination, arguing that fighting prejudice is important and potentially effective. Longer summary

This post argues against Reactionary politics by defending the importance of fighting racism and sexism. It presents evidence from controlled experiments showing significant discrimination against minorities in job hiring, housing, and other areas. The post then estimates the economic costs of discrimination in the US to be at least $438 billion per year, comparable to the costs of major diseases. It concludes that even small successes in reducing racism and sexism could have large economic benefits, and that while many social justice efforts may be ineffective, there is potential for evidence-based approaches to make meaningful progress. Shorter summary