Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits.

A detailed review of a 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, examining how its limitations were overlooked and shaped decades of potentially misguided Alzheimer's research.

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya.

Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity.

The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions.

Scott Alexander analyzes the Elizabeth Hoover case to explore the complexities of racial identity, lived experience, and the ethics of cultural appropriation.

Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy.

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his 2021 ivermectin analysis, acknowledging some errors but maintaining his conclusion that ivermectin likely doesn't work for COVID-19.

Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy.

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each.

A collection of interesting links covering a wide range of topics, from scientific studies and historical facts to current events and amusing anecdotes.

A links post featuring various news stories, research findings, and interesting facts, from Jewish pirates to ancient Roman artifacts to the fallout of various Trump-related controversies.

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms.

Scott Alexander argues that the EpiPen price hike is due to over-regulation and cronyism in the pharmaceutical industry, not lack of regulation as suggested by Vox.

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings.