Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary

A detailed review of a 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, examining how its limitations were overlooked and shaped decades of potentially misguided Alzheimer's research. Longer summary

The post reviews a landmark 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, analyzing how its technical achievements and limitations shaped three decades of Alzheimer's research. The author examines the paper's methodology, results, and claims, showing how the model's flaws - including extreme protein overexpression and lack of key disease features - were overlooked in favor of a compelling but incomplete amyloid cascade hypothesis, leading to years of failed drug development and missed opportunities to explore alternative approaches. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of H5N1 bird flu and its pandemic potential. He starts by explaining what flu is and its history of pandemics, then focuses on H5N1's current situation, analyzing prediction market estimates for its chances of causing a pandemic. The post examines different mortality scenarios and their likelihood, using data from past flu pandemics and current cases. It concludes with specific predictions about H5N1's future impact, suggesting a 5% chance of human pandemic in the next year, with varying degrees of severity if it occurs. Shorter summary

The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions. Longer summary

This post argues against California's Proposition 36, which aims to increase mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. The author contends that while Prop 36 will certainly imprison more people, it won't effectively combat crime. The post analyzes the proposition's impact on drug-related offenses and theft, using data to show that increased sentencing doesn't correlate with reduced drug use or crime rates. It also points out the lack of treatment resources required by the proposition and the potential negative impact on existing crime prevention programs. The author suggests that instead of longer sentences, California should focus on targeted interventions, increased police resources, and expanding treatment options for drug addiction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the Elizabeth Hoover case to explore the complexities of racial identity, lived experience, and the ethics of cultural appropriation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the case of Elizabeth Hoover, a professor who believed she was Native American but later discovered she wasn't, to explore the concept of race and lived experience. He discusses the complexities of defining race, the problems with basing identity solely on genetics or lived experience, and the ethical implications of cultural appropriation and affirmative action. The post critiques the harsh treatment Hoover received, suggesting it's a result of cancel culture and an overly rigid application of rules about cultural identity. Scott argues for a more nuanced and compassionate approach to such cases, highlighting the potential cruelty of retroactively invalidating someone's identity based on genetic tests. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants 2024, detailing the winners and their projects. The grants cover a wide range of areas including medical research, technology development, policy advocacy, and scientific studies. Scott explains the selection process, acknowledges contributors, and mentions future plans for the grants program. He also discusses how Manifund will handle payments and create an impact market for unfunded projects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his 2021 ivermectin analysis, acknowledging some errors but maintaining his conclusion that ivermectin likely doesn't work for COVID-19. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Alexandros Marinos' critique of his 2021 post on ivermectin studies, addressing points about individual studies, meta-analysis methods, publication bias, and new evidence since 2021. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original analysis but maintains his overall conclusion that ivermectin is likely ineffective for COVID-19. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy. Longer summary

This post is a creative writing piece in the form of verses set to the tune of a song from Les Misérables. It humorously depicts the experience of getting the COVID-19 vaccine and the conflicting desires between citizens wanting freedom and epidemiologists urging continued caution. The verses highlight various frustrations with lockdowns, and end with the narrator receiving the vaccine but still being advised to follow restrictions. The piece concludes with the narrator expressing a sense of freedom and resentment towards the FDA for delays in vaccine approval. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering a wide range of topics, from scientific studies and historical facts to current events and amusing anecdotes. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, collecting various interesting articles, studies, and facts that caught his attention. The topics range widely from scientific research (like PTSD in Roman soldiers and genetic studies) to historical curiosities (like Byzantine titles and the history of cell phones). He also comments on current events like Silicon Valley critiques and political developments. Some links are serious academic studies, while others are more lighthearted like the rules around shooting Bigfoot. Throughout the post, Scott adds brief commentary and context to help readers understand the significance of each link. Shorter summary

A links post featuring various news stories, research findings, and interesting facts, from Jewish pirates to ancient Roman artifacts to the fallout of various Trump-related controversies. Longer summary

This is a links post covering diverse topics in news and research. Stories include historical facts (like Jewish pirates in the Caribbean), scientific research (BDNF and sunlight correlation, Leek & Jager's paper on scientific findings), current events (Trump's FDA pick, immigration numbers, anti-Semitic incidents), technological developments (Uber self-driving cars, electric planes), and various social and political topics. The post follows Scott's typical links format, offering brief commentary and often humorous observations on each link. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration picks for key health-related positions, particularly the FDA commissioner and NIH chief. He expresses excitement about the possibility of Jim O'Neill or Balaji Srinivasan being chosen for FDA commissioner, viewing them as principled libertarians who could implement beneficial reforms. Alexander outlines several policies these candidates might pursue, such as medical reciprocity with other countries and streamlining generic drug approvals. He also mentions John Ioannidis as a surprising potential pick for NIH chief, praising his work in improving medical research standards. The post concludes by noting that pharmaceutical industry stocks haven't moved much in response to these potential appointments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the EpiPen price hike is due to over-regulation and cronyism in the pharmaceutical industry, not lack of regulation as suggested by Vox. Longer summary

This post criticizes Vox's article on EpiPen price hikes, arguing that the problem isn't lack of regulation but over-regulation and cronyism. Scott Alexander contrasts the pharmaceutical industry with the unregulated chair industry, pointing out that chair prices don't suddenly spike 400%. He then details how FDA regulations and patent laws prevent competitors from entering the EpiPen market, despite the drug being off-patent and inexpensive to produce. The post highlights several failed attempts by companies to create generic versions of EpiPens, and how lobbying by the manufacturer Mylan has helped maintain their monopoly. Scott uses an extended analogy comparing the situation to a hypothetical government-controlled chair market to illustrate the absurdity of the current system. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts where he shares and briefly comments on interesting articles and studies he's found. The post covers diverse topics including medical research critique (particularly brain imaging and psychiatric studies), current events (like the Chinese government's actions against Buddhist monks), and technological developments in AI safety. Scott adds his characteristic analytical commentary to many of the links, pointing out surprising implications or potential flaws in the studies. The format is casual but informative, with Scott often expressing personal opinions or humorous observations about the material he's sharing. Shorter summary