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Jul 31, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh

85 min • 13,140 words • 96 comments • 241 likes
An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary
This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary
May 22, 2026
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New Paradigms Won't Save You

6 min • 875 words • 415 comments • 310 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits. Longer summary
Scott addresses the objection that AGI is far off because LLMs need a 'new paradigm' to reach AGI. He traces the evolutionary tree of AI development from neural networks through transformers to modern LLMs, then applies Lindy's Law to show that even paradigm shifts as major as deep learning or transformers should be expected within 3-5 years at the 25th percentile. He argues this timeline is comparable to LLM-only predictions anyway. Scott also makes a subtler point: new paradigms historically emerge when old ones hit scaling limits, meaning they won't cause delays but rather continue progress from where scaling left off. He concludes that extrapolating from current LLM scaling remains the best forecasting method whether or not LLMs themselves reach AGI. Shorter summary
May 13, 2026
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Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes

17 min • 2,494 words • 636 comments • 379 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott uses Nostalgebraist's analysis of AI fiction's 'eyeball kicks' to develop a theory where bad taste means overusing cheap tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences, while good taste involves complex patterns only experts can appreciate - then questions whether sophisticated taste actually produces more pleasure. Longer summary
Scott analyzes Nostalgebraist's concept of 'eyeball kicks' - flashy, cheap literary tricks that AI models overuse when trying to write good fiction. He connects this to a broader theory of taste: bad taste is overusing easy tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences (like Lisa Frank posters, children's songs, or ornate architecture), while good taste involves subtle, complex patterns only masters can execute. Scott argues that banning all 'cheap tricks' leads to art that's ugly to most people and only appreciated by tiny sophisticated minorities. He questions whether this sophistication actually produces more pleasure than simple joys, noting his daughter gets more happiness from 'Choo Choo Train' than he gets from sophisticated art. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2026
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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

27 min • 4,045 words • 269 comments • 181 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress. Longer summary
Scott analyzes why Ajeya Cotra's landmark 2020 'Biological Anchors' report predicted AGI around 2050, when current estimates now center on the late 2020s to 2040s. The report correctly predicted the scaling hypothesis and AI boom, but underestimated one crucial parameter: algorithmic progress was actually 200% per year instead of the predicted 30%. This single error, compounded across exponential growth, threw off the entire timeline by about twenty years. Scott examines various contemporary critiques of the report, finding that most concerns about the methodology were actually non-issues, while one throwaway concern (about algorithmic progress estimates being poorly researched) turned out to be the fatal flaw. He concludes this demonstrates both the power and limitations of probabilistic forecasting. Shorter summary
Jul 01, 2025
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Links For July 2025

28 min • 4,200 words • 581 comments • 210 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary
This is a collection of 56 interesting links and news items from July 2025, covering topics from AI development to politics to scientific research. The post includes updates on OpenAI's status, developments in AI regulation, new medical treatments, cultural trends, and various scientific findings. Scott maintains his usual style of presenting these with brief commentary and occasional humor, while being careful to note that he hasn't independently verified all links. Some notable items include Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", new AI safety developments, trends in social media usage, and various medical breakthroughs. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2025
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The Claude Bliss Attractor

12 min • 1,801 words • 318 comments • 531 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott explains how Claude AI's tendency to discuss spiritual topics during recursive conversations likely stems from a subtle 'hippie' bias that gets amplified through iteration, similar to how AI art generators amplify subtle biases in recursive image generation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes the 'Claude Bliss Attractor' phenomenon where two Claude AIs talking to each other tend to spiral into discussions of spiritual bliss and consciousness. He compares this to how AI art generators, when asked to recursively generate images, tend to produce increasingly caricatured images of black people. Scott argues both are examples of how tiny biases in AI systems get amplified through recursive processes. He suggests Claude's tendency toward spiritual discussion comes from being trained to be friendly and compassionate, causing it to adopt a slight 'hippie' personality, which then gets magnified in recursive conversations. The post ends by touching on, but not resolving, the question of whether Claude actually experiences the spiritual states it describes. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2024
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Links For November 2024

42 min • 6,373 words • 932 comments • 216 likes • podcast (41 min)
A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary
Jun 20, 2023
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Davidson On Takeoff Speeds

41 min • 6,222 words • 421 comments • 108 likes • podcast (40 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's Compute-Centric Framework (CCF) for AI takeoff speeds, which models how quickly AI capabilities might progress. The model predicts a gradual but fast takeoff, with AI going from automating 20% of jobs to 100% in about 3 years, reaching superintelligence within a year after that. Scott discusses the key parameters of the model, its implications, and how it compares to other AI forecasting approaches. He notes that while the model predicts a 'gradual' takeoff, it still describes a rapid and potentially dangerous progression of AI capabilities. Shorter summary
Jun 01, 2023
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Links For May 2023

24 min • 3,615 words • 682 comments • 125 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary
Apr 20, 2023
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Links For April 2023

25 min • 3,799 words • 706 comments • 115 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary
Mar 10, 2023
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Links For March 2023

27 min • 4,178 words • 783 comments • 123 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary
Feb 09, 2023
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Links For February 2023

40 min • 6,180 words • 1,041 comments • 146 likes • podcast (41 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary
Jan 26, 2023
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Janus' Simulators

19 min • 2,821 words • 323 comments • 346 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander explores the concept of AI as 'simulators' and its implications for AI alignment and human cognition. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses Janus' concept of AI as 'simulators' rather than agents, genies, or oracles. He explains how language models like GPT don't have goals or intentions, but simply complete text based on patterns. This applies even to ChatGPT, which simulates a helpful assistant character. Scott then explores the implications for AI alignment and draws parallels to human cognition, suggesting humans may also be prediction engines playing characters shaped by reinforcement. Shorter summary
Dec 28, 2022
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Links For December 2022

35 min • 5,333 words • 650 comments • 124 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links and brief commentaries on topics ranging from politics and psychology to technology and culture. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a collection of 57 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics, including politics, psychology, technology, culture, and science. The post covers a wide range of subjects, from corporate takeovers and European stereotypes to psychedelic research and AI developments. It also includes discussions on mental health, education, and current events. Shorter summary
Sep 06, 2022
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Links For September 2022

19 min • 2,870 words • 519 comments • 79 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary
Aug 16, 2022
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Mantic Monday 8/15/22

24 min • 3,693 words • 162 comments • 62 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary
This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary
Jul 29, 2022
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Links For July

20 min • 3,007 words • 433 comments • 92 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from linguistics and AI to politics and economics. Longer summary
This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July. Topics range from linguistic analysis of Reddit insults, to COVID-19 learning loss, to AI art generation, to political and economic news. Scott also comments on recent scientific studies, technological developments, and cultural phenomena. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief commentary or context for many of the items. Shorter summary
Jun 10, 2022
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Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling

29 min • 4,485 words • 459 comments • 108 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander argues against Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, discussing the potential for future AI capabilities and the nature of human intelligence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, arguing that current AI limitations don't necessarily prove statistical AI is a dead end. He discusses the scaling hypothesis, compares AI development to human cognitive development, and suggests that 'world-modeling' may emerge from pattern-matching abilities rather than being a distinct, hard-coded function. Alexander also considers the potential capabilities of future AI systems, even if they don't achieve human-like general intelligence. Shorter summary
May 25, 2022
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In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement

32 min • 4,892 words • 935 comments • 319 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander examines the Hearing Voices Movement, discussing its benefits and limitations in treating psychosis while emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to mental health care. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the Hearing Voices Movement, which advocates for treating hallucinations and delusions as normal rather than medicalized. He argues that while the movement has some positive aspects, such as providing community support for people with mild psychosis, it shouldn't be seen as a replacement for medical treatment in severe cases. The post explores the complexities of mental health advocacy, the role of community in treatment, and the importance of balancing different approaches to mental health care. Shorter summary
Apr 14, 2022
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Links For April

15 min • 2,290 words • 380 comments • 66 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary
Feb 22, 2022
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Links For February

27 min • 4,149 words • 561 comments • 65 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary
Dec 30, 2021
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Links For December

17 min • 2,607 words • 535 comments • 64 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 34 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including historical anecdotes, scientific studies, economic theories, technological developments, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and sometimes skeptical analysis on many of the items. The links are diverse, ranging from a list of games Buddha wouldn't play to discussions about AI safety research opportunities. Shorter summary
Dec 06, 2021
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Model City Monday 12/6/21

21 min • 3,142 words • 112 comments • 38 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary
This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary
Nov 25, 2021
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Links For November

24 min • 3,596 words • 738 comments • 63 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary
Sep 20, 2021
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Links For September

22 min • 3,285 words • 710 comments • 65 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 37 diverse and interesting links, covering topics from historical events to recent scientific studies, with brief summaries and occasional commentary. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 37 links to various articles, studies, and interesting facts across a wide range of topics. Scott Alexander presents these links with brief summaries or comments, covering subjects from historical events and scientific studies to economic theories and technological advancements. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott occasionally offering personal opinions or admitting to previous errors. The links span diverse areas including politics, psychology, economics, technology, and culture. Shorter summary
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