Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the controversy around AI companies' contracts with the Department of War, focusing on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's designation of Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk' after they refused to allow their AI to be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The post examines OpenAI's subsequent agreement with the DoW, which permits 'all lawful use' of their models. Through detailed legal analysis provided by anonymous readers, Scott shows that current laws have significant loopholes: mass domestic surveillance is technically legal when data is 'incidentally obtained' or purchased from third parties, and autonomous weapons are only regulated by vague DoW policies that can be changed at will. The post critiques OpenAI's FAQ as misleading, arguing their safeguards are inadequate, and concludes with questions that employees, journalists, and lawmakers should be asking about the contract. Shorter summary

A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary

In 'Dominion', conservative Christian Matthew Scully makes a comprehensive case for animal welfare, critiquing practices like factory farming and hunting from religious, ethical, and scientific perspectives. Longer summary

Matthew Scully's 'Dominion' is a comprehensive exploration of animal welfare from a conservative Christian perspective. Scully, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, argues that humans have a moral obligation to show mercy to animals based on religious, ethical, and scientific grounds. He critiques various practices including factory farming, hunting, and animal experimentation, while also engaging with philosophical arguments about animal consciousness. The book combines personal experiences, biblical interpretation, and criticism of both conservative and liberal approaches to animal rights. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 40 diverse links and news items covering topics such as AI developments, politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. It includes updates on OpenAI and Google's AI projects, discussions on religious phenomena, analyses of social and economic trends, and various interesting facts and anecdotes. The author provides commentary and context for many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how investigative journalism can target unpopular individuals or groups, using recent examples to illustrate the potential chilling effects and biases in media coverage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how investigative journalism can be used as a weapon against individuals or groups who become unpopular or controversial. He cites three examples: the plagiarism accusations against Claudine Gay, the investigation into Neri Oxman, and the negative coverage of effective altruism after the FTX scandal. Scott argues that journalists tend to dig up old scandals or minor misdeeds when a person or group becomes unpopular, creating a chilling effect. He contrasts this with his ideal of journalism comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable. Scott also relates this to his personal experience with negative media coverage and concludes by connecting this phenomenon to his previous article on not learning too much from dramatic events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various explanations for why top students attend the best colleges, including optimistic views about maximizing potential and cynical views about signaling and 'privilege laundering'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of why top students are sent to the best colleges, presenting both optimistic and cynical explanations. He discusses the potential benefits of matching high-performing students with expert teachers, but also considers the signaling theory of education. The post delves into a fascinating hypothesis about elite colleges functioning as 'privilege laundering' machines, mixing meritocratic and privileged students to create a universally recognized signal of merit. Scott examines the potential advantages and drawbacks of this system, concluding that while imperfect, it may be preferable to alternatives that completely disregard merit. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the ethics of eugenics and population control through fictional debates, comparing historical figures and policies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the ethics of eugenics and population control through a dialogue between fictional characters. The post starts with a debate on whether eugenics can be ethical if implemented voluntarily, then compares the historical impacts of eugenics advocate Francis Galton and population control advocate Paul Ehrlich. It explores how Ehrlich's ideas led to forced sterilizations in India yet he remains respected, while Galton is vilified. The dialogue then debates whether this discrepancy is justified and how to evaluate ideas that led to harmful outcomes. The post ends with a discussion on the role of government in implementing controversial policies for perceived greater goods. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that media rarely lies outright but often misleads through lack of context, making censorship of 'misinformation' problematic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that media rarely lies explicitly, but instead misinforms through misinterpretation, lack of context, or selective reporting. He provides examples from both alternative (Infowars) and mainstream (New York Times) media to illustrate how technically true information can be presented in misleading ways. The post critiques the idea that censorship can easily distinguish between 'misinformation' and 'good information', arguing that determining necessary context is subjective and value-laden. Scott concludes that there isn't a clear line between misinformation and proper contextualization, making censorship inherently biased. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on the ACX Grants project, summarizing the progress of grantees and their ongoing needs. Longer summary

This post provides updates on the ACX Grants project, where Scott Alexander awarded grants to various individuals and organizations for innovative projects. The post summarizes the progress of each grantee, their self-assessed performance on a scale of 1-10, and any additional help or funding they are seeking. The projects range from scientific research and technology development to policy advocacy and social initiatives. Scott also reflects on lessons learned from the grant program and announces the creation of an ACX Grantees Discord for grantees to connect with each other. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why skills plateau, proposing decay and interference hypotheses to explain the phenomenon across various fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores why skills plateau despite continued practice, focusing on creative artists, doctors, and formal education. He presents two main hypotheses: the decay hypothesis, where knowledge is forgotten if not regularly reviewed, and the interference hypothesis, where similar information blends together, making it difficult to learn new things in the same domain. The post discusses how these hypotheses explain various learning phenomena, including the ability to learn multiple unrelated skills simultaneously. Scott also considers edge cases and potential applications of these theories, such as mnemonic devices and language learning strategies. Shorter summary

A review of Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', examining its critique of capitalism and mass media, and relating its ideas to modern issues. Longer summary

This review examines Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', a Marxist critique of capitalism and mass media. The reviewer summarizes Debord's key ideas about how spectacle dominates modern society, commodifies all aspects of life, and creates a false reality. The review also covers Debord's later comments on the book, relating his ideas to current issues like social media, fake news, and information warfare. While acknowledging the book's insights, the reviewer ultimately takes a more moderate stance on capitalism and technology's impacts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the poor quality of research on homework effectiveness, finding only one well-designed study showing positive effects for high school algebra. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the lack of reliable research on the effectiveness of homework. He critiques existing studies for their flawed methodologies, particularly their reliance on self-reported time spent on homework as a proxy for homework amount. The post highlights issues with confounding factors and poor study designs. Alexander finds only one well-designed, randomized study on homework effectiveness, which shows a positive effect for 9th-grade algebra homework. However, he notes that this single study doesn't provide enough evidence to draw broad conclusions about homework effectiveness across different subjects and grade levels. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how to navigate bias in media and expert opinions through understanding the unwritten rules of misrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'bounded distrust' in media and expert opinions. He argues that while many news sources and experts are biased, there are unwritten rules about how far they will go in misrepresenting facts. Understanding these rules allows people to extract useful information even from biased sources. He uses examples from FOX News, Washington Post, and scientific research to illustrate how people can navigate bias and misinformation. The post concludes by acknowledging that this skill of discerning truth from biased sources is not universal, leading to a divide between 'savvy' and 'clueless' people in their trust of institutions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the 'Tartaria' conspiracy theory to discuss broader shifts in aesthetic preferences, examining potential explanations and their implications for society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the 'Tartaria' conspiracy theory, which posits that modern architecture is inferior to older styles due to a hidden societal regression. He uses this to discuss broader shifts in aesthetic preferences across various art forms. The post examines several potential explanations for this shift, including changes in wealth signaling, elite tastes, religious influences, labor costs, and the split between high art and mass culture. Scott concludes by reflecting on the importance of understanding these changes, as they relate to broader questions of class, signaling, and how intellectual and cultural elites relate to society at large. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that many people missed an opportunity to have a realistic chance of becoming Governor of California in the recall election, and analyzes why this happened. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a unique political opportunity in California's recall election of Governor Gavin Newsom. He argues that almost anyone with a slight amount of fame or money could have positioned themselves to have a 5-10% chance of becoming Governor. The post explains the recall process, the current political landscape, and how the leading Democratic replacement candidate, Kevin Paffrath, a YouTube landlord influencer, gained his position. Scott suggests that many people, including himself, missed this opportunity and could have been in Paffrath's place. He explores various counterarguments and concludes with thoughts on opportunity recognition and the nature of power. Shorter summary