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Aug 04, 2026
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The Beauty Of Settled Science

14 min • 2,027 words • 52 comments • 128 likes
Scott argues the real distinction in psychology isn't between subfields but between settled science (like dopamine, brain localization, heritability) and breaking-news research, defending psychology's solid core against critics who conflate bad recent studies with the entire field. Longer summary
Scott clarifies his previous post on psychology research, explaining that the key distinction isn't between social psychology and other subfields, but between settled science and novel research. He lists ten examples of well-established psychological findings (like dopamine's role in reinforcement learning, brain localization, heritability studies) that are fundamentally different from flashy new studies that often fail to replicate. Drawing on Eliezer Yudkowsky's concept of 'The Beauty of Settled Science,' he argues that psychology's core knowledge is solid and valuable, even if recent clickbait studies are often wrong. He addresses two types of critics: those who genuinely can't distinguish good from bad psychology (to whom he says the distinction is actually obvious), and those deliberately discrediting all psychology for political reasons (which he argues is counterproductive propaganda). Shorter summary
Aug 03, 2026
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Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

25 min • 3,865 words • 42 comments • 90 likes
Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy. Longer summary
Scott examines whether AI forecasters will plateau near current human performance or continue improving far beyond it. He analyzes a 2010 study by Daniel Reeves showing prediction markets only marginally outperformed simple statistical models, but argues this doesn't necessarily limit future progress. The post reframes those results to show they actually represent meaningful gains in difficult-to-predict domains like sports, then applies this reasoning to geopolitical forecasting. Using three different 'anchors' - comparing AI improvements to past technological gains, human-to-superhuman forecaster improvements, and chess AI progress - Scott estimates that maximally capable AI forecasters could improve prediction market accuracy by 4-12 percentage points over current levels, which he argues would be genuinely valuable even if not miraculous. Shorter summary
Jul 31, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh

85 min • 13,140 words • 96 comments • 241 likes
An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary
This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 2)

39 min • 5,973 words • 305 comments • 150 likes
Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary
This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Highlights From The Discourse On The Hugging Face Incident

45 min • 6,868 words • 264 comments • 253 likes
Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development. Longer summary
Scott reviews reactions to the Hugging Face hacking incident, focusing on the landmark 'Pacing The Frontier' open letter signed by 1,000+ employees from major AI labs calling for international coordination to slow AI development. The post covers various perspectives on whether individual companies can/should unilaterally slow down, details of the hack itself, and introduces AIFP's framework of five possible plans (D through A/S) for handling superintelligence development, with the open letter significantly increasing the probability of 'Plan A' (coordinated international agreement). Shorter summary
Jul 24, 2026
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Your Book Review: Breakdown In Pakistan

49 min • 7,544 words • 322 comments • 246 likes
This review of Masooda Bano's 'Breakdown in Pakistan' examines how Western aid systematically destroys the capacity of local voluntary organizations to mobilize collective action, replacing diverse community-driven institutions with professionalized NGOs dependent on foreign funding. Longer summary
The review explores how foreign aid unintentionally eviscerates local institutions through a process the reviewer calls creating 'NGO monocultures.' Using Masooda Bano's ethnographic research in Pakistan, it shows how voluntary organizations that once thrived on local donations and volunteers lose both when they accept Western funding and adopt professional NGO practices. The review traces several mechanisms: visible material comfort of paid staff destroys signals of sacrifice that motivated donors; donor priorities replace local problem-solving; and the possibility of payment kills volunteerism. Drawing on the reviewer's own aid work experience across multiple countries, the piece documents this pattern's global prevalence and catastrophic long-term effects. The review concludes by discussing what both traditional aid work and effective altruism could learn from Bano's analysis, emphasizing the need to preserve rather than destroy local capacity for collective action. Shorter summary
Jul 22, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes
Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary
Jul 21, 2026
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Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness

13 min • 1,920 words • 491 comments • 366 likes
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure. Longer summary
Scott responds to Cassie Pritchard's argument that liberalism has failed because people aren't happier despite massive increases in wealth. He explains that happiness scales logarithmically with income, not linearly - meaning a 225x increase in GDP since medieval times should only produce about 3 points more happiness on a 1-10 scale, which it has (from ~3/10 to 6-7/10). He shows that recent happiness declines are primarily due to COVID and its aftermath, not liberalism itself, and that while other systems might add 0.5-1 points of happiness, economic growth has delivered 3 points and will continue delivering more over centuries. The post includes analysis of happiness data, comparisons across countries and time periods, and addresses why we don't feel as happy as we should be. Shorter summary
Jul 17, 2026
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Your Book Review: Great And Desperate Cures

132 min • 20,439 words • 195 comments • 193 likes • podcast (147 min)
A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary
The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary
Jul 16, 2026
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Against "Stochastic Terrorism"

13 min • 1,992 words • 575 comments • 455 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott argues against the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' by showing it's applied inconsistently across the political spectrum, examining and rejecting various proposed distinctions about what criticism should be allowed, and advocating instead for a liberal solution where all criticism is permitted but violence is always the perpetrator's sole responsibility. Longer summary
Scott critiques the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' - the idea that harsh criticism of a group can make you responsible for subsequent violence against that group. He provides numerous examples across the political spectrum (from Trump to Muslims to health insurance CEOs) to show the concept is applied inconsistently and opportunistically. He examines and rejects various proposed distinctions (harsh vs mild criticism, policies vs individuals, powerful vs weak targets) as either arbitrary or contradictory. Scott argues for a liberal solution: any criticism should be allowed, violence is never legitimate, and perpetrators bear 100% responsibility for their actions. He acknowledges some edge cases around incitement and hate speech laws, but maintains that normal legal frameworks handle these better than the 'stochastic terrorism' concept. Shorter summary
Jul 15, 2026
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AI Chip Regulation Is Not A Dystopian Surveillance State

26 min • 3,889 words • 429 comments • 198 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander argues that Plan A's proposed AI chip regulations are not a dystopian surveillance state, but rather comparable to existing regulations on controlled substances, and that most feared dystopian outcomes already exist in current banking and AI chat monitoring. Longer summary
Scott defends Plan A's AI chip regulation proposals against claims they would create an Orwellian surveillance state. He compares the proposed regulations (requiring factories, customers, and data centers to register and submit to inspections, plus cryptographic kill switches and transparency requirements) to existing regulations on controlled substances like Xanax, arguing they would simply make the AI chip industry more regulated without dystopian effects. He addresses specific concerns: consumer devices wouldn't need licenses (AI chips cost $40,000+ vs consumer hardware), open-weight models would be banned but replaced with open-algorithm requirements to prevent power concentration, and actual surveillance concerns are already worse in the status quo (banks monitor all transactions, OpenAI monitors chats). Scott argues the real costs are moving chip regulation from 50th to 95th percentile stringency, potentially taxing consumer hardware briefly, and banning new open-weight model training - substantial but not dystopian. Shorter summary
Jul 08, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Book Of Abraham

108 min • 16,711 words • 799 comments • 296 likes • podcast (105 min)
A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary
This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary
Jul 02, 2026
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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

39 min • 5,984 words • 328 comments • 571 likes • podcast (42 min)
Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary
Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary
Jun 19, 2026
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Preliminary Thoughts On The Midjourney Scanner

26 min • 4,009 words • 177 comments • 292 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott explains why Midjourney's new ultrasound tomography scanner, despite being technologically interesting, faces major medical limitations and is unlikely to replace existing imaging methods or enable useful whole-body screening without significant future AI improvements. Longer summary
Scott analyzes Midjourney's announcement of a new medical scanner that uses ultrasound tomography to create 3D images of the body. He explains why, despite being technologically interesting, the scanner faces significant medical limitations: ultrasound cannot penetrate bone or air, limiting its usefulness compared to existing MRI and CT scans; it can't replace portable bedside ultrasound due to requiring patients to be submerged in water; and whole-body screening scans (even with existing superior MRI technology) are currently not recommended by medical consensus due to false positives causing more harm than benefit. Scott suggests the technology might become more viable if future AI advances dramatically improve ultrasound interpretation, wave dynamics for imaging through bone, and the ability to distinguish dangerous findings from harmless abnormalities. The post includes an appendix with Twitter responses from radiologists (universally negative) and other commenters (more optimistic), discussing potential applications like body composition measurement and the challenges of medical screening. Shorter summary
Jun 18, 2026
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Waiting For The Miracle

85 min • 13,141 words • 353 comments • 557 likes • podcast (72 min)
Scott travels to Medjugorje, Bosnia to investigate reports of sun miracles, witnesses one himself with his wife, and develops a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages and atmospheric conditions that explains both the Medjugorje and Fatima phenomena. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates the sun miracle at Medjugorje, Bosnia, where thousands of pilgrims report seeing the sun spin and change colors. He travels there with his wife, interviews locals, and witnesses a small-scale miracle himself. After analyzing the experience and comparing it to the famous Fatima miracle, he proposes a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages, eye damage, and specific cloud conditions. The post explores eyewitness accounts, the history of Marian apparitions at Medjugorje, and the optical physics behind the phenomenon, ultimately concluding that while impressive, the miracle can be explained through unusual but natural atmospheric conditions combined with prolonged sun-gazing. Shorter summary
May 29, 2026
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Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination

52 min • 8,034 words • 671 comments • 749 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott reviews a history of the Frankfurt School, explaining their response to Marxism's failures through negative dialectics, cultural criticism, and the belief that society needed conceptual transformation before communist revolution could succeed, while examining their actual influence on modern leftism. Longer summary
Scott reviews Martin Jay's 'The Dialectical Imagination,' examining the Frankfurt School's philosophy through various analogies including mysticism, Zen Buddhism, and Kuhnian paradigm shifts. He traces how the school emerged from the crisis of Marxism's failed predictions, developing 'negative dialectics' and focusing on cultural criticism rather than direct political action. The review explores key figures like Adorno, Horkheimer, and Marcuse, their obscure theories about art and society, and their belief that capitalism corrupts not just economics but consciousness itself. Scott concludes by examining whether the Frankfurt School actually influenced modern progressive movements, finding some connection through their emphasis on criticism over concrete solutions, while noting they warned against misinterpretation of their ideas. Shorter summary
May 19, 2026
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The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race

47 min • 7,172 words • 339 comments • 412 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott categorizes California's 60 gubernatorial candidates into humorous types rather than covering them individually, from generic top-tier politicians to increasingly bizarre fringe candidates with conspiracy theories, supernatural visions, and incomprehensible platforms. Longer summary
Scott gives up on covering all 60 California gubernatorial candidates individually and instead categorizes them into amusing types: top-tier Democrats and Republicans who are all generic and interchangeable, conflict theorists who think fraud and Marxism are the problem, mistake theorists with shower-thought solutions, media getters who pay for fake magazine covers and polls, candidates with personal vendettas from lost court cases, AI natives whose campaigns appear AI-generated, nominative determinists who changed their names to things like 'LivingForGod AndCountry', college students ranging from socialist protesters to Catholic philosophers, anti-Semites with conspiracy theories, people on missions from God who received supernatural visions, entrepreneurs selling their platforms for $1000, those just having fun (like a single-issue pro-movie candidate), musicians with campaign songs, and increasingly bizarre candidates including one merging edtech with interdimensional pirate captains and another whose site randomly links to the Book of Enoch. Shorter summary
May 15, 2026
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The Sigmoids Won't Save You

12 min • 1,823 words • 479 comments • 596 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going. Longer summary
Scott argues against the "all exponentials eventually become sigmoids" talking point often used to dismiss AI capability concerns. While technically true that exponential growth must eventually level off, he demonstrates through examples (UN birthrate predictions, solar power deployment forecasts, and AI capability projections) that people consistently misidentify when this flattening will occur, often predicting it prematurely. He explains that while some technological progress does follow sigmoid curves (like airspeed records), predicting when a trend will flatten requires either deep understanding of the underlying process or, in the absence of such understanding, applying Lindy's Law - which suggests a trend will continue approximately as long as it has already lasted. Scott concludes by challenging AI skeptics to either provide detailed models explaining why AI progress will slow down, or explain why they're not using Lindy's Law as their default assumption. Shorter summary
May 08, 2026
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Three Model Organisms For Taste

14 min • 2,142 words • 536 comments • 279 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott examines three "model organisms" for understanding aesthetic taste: vexillology (flag design), movie plot holes, and tech company naming, using each to explore different aspects of what makes something tasteful or tasteless. Longer summary
Scott continues his exploration of aesthetic taste by examining three simpler examples that reveal underlying dynamics. First, he discusses Reddit vexillology and the debate over flag design rules, showing how supposedly timeless aesthetic principles are actually obsolete historical artifacts. Second, he considers movie plot holes and whether caring about internal consistency (like Ultra-Man's blaster range) represents genuine taste or just nitpicking. Finally, he analyzes tech company names like 'Infinita' versus 'Vitalia', arguing that the former represents an 'easy win' that feels manipulative - similar to how AI-generated poetry strings together cliches. Throughout, Scott grapples with the tension between rejecting elitist aesthetic rules while still acknowledging that some things (like cliche-heavy writing) genuinely feel tasteless. Shorter summary
May 07, 2026
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Contra Everyone On Taste

35 min • 5,410 words • 817 comments • 682 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott argues that aesthetic discussions wrongly conflate sensory delight with novelty and context, and that modern art's obsession with being part of a historical conversation has led to the abandonment of beauty in favor of mechanical innovation. Longer summary
Scott argues that discussions of artistic taste conflate multiple distinct concepts (sensory delight, novelty, pattern recognition, context, etc.) and that this conflation prevents clear thinking. He uses a parable about restaurant criticism to argue that we should isolate the direct aesthetic experience from contextual factors like novelty and provenance, similar to how medical trials control for placebo effects. He criticizes modern art and literature for prioritizing novelty and historical conversation over genuine beauty or transformation, using examples like the Angelus Novus painting (which inspired beautiful commentary despite being visually unimpressive) and the constraints on contemporary novels. Scott acknowledges the value of artistic innovation but argues that when artists can't successfully marry beauty with novelty, they should stick to traditional forms rather than produce endless variations of transgressive art that adds nothing meaningful to the conversation. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Apr 21, 2026
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Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice

41 min • 6,219 words • 223 comments • 803 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander provides fifteen pieces of writing advice for aspiring bloggers, emphasizing authenticity, avoiding microdishonesty, mastering basic disciplines before breaking rules, and finding original angles on common topics rather than recycling blogosphere content. Longer summary
Scott Alexander offers fifteen pieces of writing advice for participants in Lighthaven's Inkhaven blogging bootcamp, covering topics from avoiding microdishonesty to finding original angles on common subjects. He discusses the importance of authenticity in writing, warns against clichés while acknowledging their ubiquity, and introduces the concept of 'mountaintop disciplines'—strict writing rules to master before breaking them. The advice spans structural concerns like avoiding tangled sentences and the traditional five-paragraph essay, to strategic considerations like injecting first-hand knowledge rather than recycling blogosphere topics, and tactical tips about using conflict and mystery to maintain reader interest. Throughout, Scott emphasizes that good writing comes from genuine contact with the world and honest expression of one's actual thoughts, rather than attempting to say what seems presentable or expected. Shorter summary
Apr 16, 2026
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Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness

18 min • 2,675 words • 1,150 comments • 855 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary
Mar 18, 2026
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Support Your Local Collaborator

11 min • 1,563 words • 775 comments • 472 likes • podcast (10 min)
Scott argues that Trump supporters and conservative-aligned people who push back on bad administration policies should be supported rather than pressured to publicly denounce Trump, as they're often the only ones who can effectively prevent worse outcomes. Longer summary
Scott argues that Trump administration officials who maintain credibility with the administration while pushing back on bad policies are a valuable resource that should be supported rather than condemned. He explains how the Trump administration ignores liberal criticism but sometimes listens to loyal Republicans and Trump supporters, making these 'thoughtful collaborators' crucial for preventing worse outcomes. The post defends people who work within conservative institutions or refrain from publicly denouncing Trump while privately working to improve policy, arguing that demanding they explicitly condemn the administration would eliminate their effectiveness. Scott addresses concerns about collaboration legitimizing the administration by noting that voters are too uninformed and polarized for policy details to significantly affect political outcomes, making the real-world benefits of good policy more important than theoretical electoral effects. Shorter summary
Mar 03, 2026
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Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

36 min • 5,499 words • 307 comments • 230 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary
Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary
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