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11 posts found
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Jul 22, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes
Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Jan 13, 2026
acx
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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

42 min • 6,449 words • 247 comments • 211 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary
Feb 12, 2025
acx
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Deliberative Alignment, And The Spec

16 min • 2,460 words • 266 comments • 200 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott analyzes OpenAI's new deliberative alignment approach and explores different possibilities for who should ultimately control AI systems as they become more powerful. Longer summary
Scott discusses OpenAI's new paper on deliberative alignment, which combines constitutional AI with chain of thought reasoning to create more thoughtful AI responses. He explains how the process works by having AI models reflect on moral questions using a specification document. The post then explores different possible approaches to AI chains of command, including prioritizing companies, governments, specifications, moral law, average citizens, or humanity's coherent extrapolated volition. Scott expresses concern that we're heading toward either corporate or government control of AI systems, while acknowledging there may be better alternatives. Shorter summary
May 29, 2024
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Links for May 2024

38 min • 5,841 words • 986 comments • 126 likes • podcast (37 min)
A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 40 diverse links and news items covering topics such as AI developments, politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. It includes updates on OpenAI and Google's AI projects, discussions on religious phenomena, analyses of social and economic trends, and various interesting facts and anecdotes. The author provides commentary and context for many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. Shorter summary
May 08, 2024
acx
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Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill

19 min • 2,928 words • 238 comments • 99 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes California's AI regulation bill SB1047, finding it reasonably well-designed despite misrepresentations, and ultimately supporting it as a compromise between safety and innovation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines California's proposed AI regulation bill SB1047, which aims to regulate large AI models. He explains that contrary to some misrepresentations, the bill is reasonably well-designed, applying only to very large models and focusing on preventing catastrophic harms like creating weapons of mass destruction or major cyberattacks. Scott addresses various objections to the bill, dismissing some as based on misunderstandings while acknowledging other more legitimate concerns. He ultimately supports the bill, seeing it as a good compromise between safety and innovation, while urging readers to pay attention to the conversation and be wary of misrepresentations. Shorter summary
Feb 29, 2024
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Links For February 2024

33 min • 5,036 words • 547 comments • 114 likes • podcast (32 min)
A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary
Jan 24, 2023
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Who Predicted 2022?

24 min • 3,720 words • 258 comments • 101 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary
Dec 12, 2022
acx
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Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs

18 min • 2,697 words • 720 comments • 369 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the shortcomings of OpenAI's ChatGPT, highlighting the limitations of current AI alignment techniques and their implications for future AI development. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the limitations of OpenAI's ChatGPT, focusing on its inability to consistently avoid saying offensive things despite extensive training. He argues that this demonstrates fundamental problems with current AI alignment techniques, particularly Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). The post outlines three main issues: RLHF's ineffectiveness, potential negative consequences when it does work, and the possibility of more advanced AIs bypassing it entirely. Alexander concludes by emphasizing the broader implications for AI safety and the need for better control mechanisms. Shorter summary
Jul 01, 2022
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Your Book Review: The Internationalists

59 min • 9,133 words • 241 comments • 76 likes • podcast (58 min)
A review of 'The Internationalists', which argues for the significance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war and shaping modern international relations. Longer summary
This book review discusses 'The Internationalists' by Oona Hathaway and Scott Shapiro, which argues for the importance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war. The review explores how the Pact changed international norms, leading to a significant decrease in conquest and territorial changes. It covers the book's three main sections: the Old World Order, the Transformation Period, and the New World Order. The review also addresses criticisms of the Pact's relevance and discusses its implications for current events like the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Shorter summary
Mar 01, 2022
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Ukraine Warcasting

53 min • 8,064 words • 713 comments • 118 likes • podcast (58 min)
Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews various predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, evaluating pundits and prediction markets on their accuracy regarding the invasion and Ukrainian resistance. He discusses the performance of Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, and individual forecasters like Edward Luttwak, Anatoly Karlin, Richard Hanania, Dmitri Alperovich, Tyler Cowen, Samo Burja, and others. Scott notes that most failed predictions were based on political precommitments, while successful ones often aligned with biases that happened to match reality. He concludes that having a bias corresponding to the outcome is often more important than being smart when it comes to prediction success. Shorter summary
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