A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary

The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary

A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary

This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary

A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny. Longer summary

Sasha Putilin received an ACX grant to replicate a 2023 study claiming that flickering lights synchronized to individual brain rhythms could boost learning speed threefold. The $32,000 replication with 12 participants (versus 80 in the original) found no such effect. Upon examining the original data more closely, Putilin discovered the apparent effect was driven entirely by a few participants with large negative learning rates (getting worse over time) who happened to all be in one experimental group. The original study had obscured this pattern by presenting averaged data rather than individual results. Putilin argues this exemplifies 'cargo-cult statistics' where researchers mechanically apply statistical rituals without critically examining underlying data. The post concludes by suggesting AI tools are democratizing meta-science, enabling anyone to audit published research that previously required expert-level effort. Shorter summary

Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

A detailed insider look at Phase I clinical drug trials, revealing how the system's structure encourages participants to routinely lie about their medical history and symptoms to continue participating. Longer summary

This review explores Phase I clinical pharmaceutical trials from a participant's perspective, detailing the process, the people involved, and systemic issues. The author explains how participants are recruited, screened, and monitored during trials, then describes the peculiar demographics of regular trial participants. A key focus is how the system's incentives encourage dishonesty: participants routinely lie about medical history and symptoms because being truthful often leads to disqualification from future trials. The author concludes that while this systemic dishonesty probably doesn't catastrophically compromise drug safety, it does make the research pipeline less effective than it could be. Shorter summary

A guest post defending the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, explaining why amyloid is likely the root cause despite recent criticism and discussing why early treatments have only been partially effective. Longer summary

David Schneider-Joseph presents a detailed defense of the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease, which states that the disease is caused by accumulation of amyloid-β peptide. He explains the ATN model (amyloid → tau → neurodegeneration) and provides extensive evidence from genetics, clinical studies, and animal models. The post addresses various criticisms of the hypothesis, including the recent research fraud controversy and apparent failures of early treatments. The author explains why current treatments have only achieved about 30% efficacy and predicts that future treatments targeting amyloid earlier and more effectively could achieve much better results. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary

A detailed review of a 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, examining how its limitations were overlooked and shaped decades of potentially misguided Alzheimer's research. Longer summary

The post reviews a landmark 1995 paper introducing the PDAPP mouse model for Alzheimer's disease, analyzing how its technical achievements and limitations shaped three decades of Alzheimer's research. The author examines the paper's methodology, results, and claims, showing how the model's flaws - including extreme protein overexpression and lack of key disease features - were overlooked in favor of a compelling but incomplete amyloid cascade hypothesis, leading to years of failed drug development and missed opportunities to explore alternative approaches. Shorter summary

Scott presents evidence that COVID-19 did kill approximately 1.2 million Americans, addressing skeptics by analyzing excess death data and addressing common counterarguments. Longer summary

In response to skeptics questioning the official COVID-19 death toll, Scott Alexander presents evidence supporting the 1.2 million deaths figure. He shows excess mortality data from multiple sources indicating 500,000-700,000 extra deaths in both 2020 and 2021, closely matching reported COVID deaths. He addresses various counter-arguments, including the 'died with vs of COVID' distinction, the role of treatments like ventilators, and the common experience of not personally knowing COVID victims. The post demonstrates how the data supports COVID being the primary cause, and explains why personal experiences might not reflect the true scale of the pandemic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes Tyler Cowen and others for misrepresenting USAID's funding model, explaining how regranting through other charities is both necessary and effective despite seeming inefficient to outsiders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Marginal Revolution post by Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, where Cowen suggests that only 12% of funds go to recipients. Scott explains that this is misleading because USAID is not a direct charity but a funding organization that works through other charities. He details how the grant-making process works, defends the overhead costs, and points out that Cowen himself runs an organization (Mercatus Center) that does similar regranting. Scott particularly criticizes Trump and Rubio for misrepresenting these programs as wasteful, noting that programs like PEPFAR have saved millions of lives and have very low rates of unexplained expenses. Shorter summary

Scott critiques the phrase 'the purpose of a system is what it does' by showing how it confuses outcomes with intentions and leads to absurd or paranoid conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the popular phrase 'the purpose of a system is what it does' (POSIWID) by showing how it leads to absurd conclusions. He uses several examples including cancer hospitals, the Ukrainian military, and public transport to demonstrate that a system's actual outcomes don't necessarily reflect its purpose. The post shows how people often misuse this phrase on social media to suggest malicious intent behind system failures, rather than acknowledging that systems can have unintended consequences or simply fail to achieve their goals. He concludes by suggesting satirical alternative phrasings that highlight the absurdity of the original. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives. Longer summary

The post critiques the use of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication, arguing that it's misleading and erodes public trust. Scott Alexander shows how the phrase is used inconsistently to mean both 'plausible but not yet proven' and 'definitively false'. He explains that this stems from a misunderstanding of how real truth-seeking works, which should be Bayesian rather than based on a simplistic null hypothesis model. The post concludes by suggesting better ways for journalists to communicate scientific uncertainty, including being more specific about the state of evidence and engaging with the arguments of those who believe differently. Shorter summary

The review examines Nicholson Baker's 'Double Fold', a critique of libraries replacing original books and newspapers with inferior microfilm copies. Longer summary

This review discusses Nicholson Baker's book 'Double Fold', which criticizes the widespread practice of American libraries discarding original books and newspapers in favor of microfilm copies. The review outlines Baker's arguments against this practice, including the loss of historical artifacts, the poor quality of microfilm, and the flawed science behind claims of paper deterioration. It also touches on the responses to Baker's book and reflects on its relevance 20 years after publication. Shorter summary

Scott examines how the 5-HTTLPR gene was wrongly linked to depression for years, discussing the implications for psychiatric research and genetic testing products. Longer summary

This post discusses the history and eventual debunking of the 5-HTTLPR gene's supposed role in depression. Initially, numerous studies claimed to find links between 5-HTTLPR and various mental health conditions, interactions with stress, and even antidepressant efficacy. However, a recent large-scale study by Border et al. found no evidence for these claims, suggesting that hundreds of previous studies were likely false positives. The post explores the implications of this finding, including concerns about the reliability of psychiatric research, the tendency for studies to reinforce existing beliefs, and the questionable validity of pharmacogenomic testing products that rely on genes like 5-HTTLPR. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes Ted Chiang's article that compares AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the analogy is flawed and the reasoning behind it is unsound. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Ted Chiang's article comparing AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the comparison is flawed and the reasoning unsound. He points out that AI risk concerns originated from academics, not just Silicon Valley, and that drawing analogies between scientific concepts and social phenomena doesn't disprove the original concept. Scott also criticizes Chiang's use of psychological projection to explain AI fears, noting the dangers of amateur psychoanalysis. He concludes by emphasizing that this approach to risk assessment is inappropriate for potentially catastrophic issues. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts where he shares and briefly comments on interesting articles and studies he's found. The post covers diverse topics including medical research critique (particularly brain imaging and psychiatric studies), current events (like the Chinese government's actions against Buddhist monks), and technological developments in AI safety. Scott adds his characteristic analytical commentary to many of the links, pointing out surprising implications or potential flaws in the studies. The format is casual but informative, with Scott often expressing personal opinions or humorous observations about the material he's sharing. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

A links roundup examining various scientific studies, social developments, and historical findings, with a particular focus on recent research about confounding variables and replication issues in science. Longer summary

This is an extensive links post covering various scientific studies, news items, and interesting facts. Scott discusses several studies about confounding variables and replication in science, historical findings about ancient civilizations, new research on topics ranging from climate change to criminology, and various social and political developments. The post starts with methodological concerns in science, moves through various research findings and historical tidbits, and ends with news about ongoing projects and obituaries. The tone is analytical but casual, with Scott often adding his own commentary and pointing out interesting implications or contradictions. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes websites that misleadingly suggest drug side effects by scraping FDA data, potentially causing patients to stop taking necessary medications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes websites like EHealthMe that automatically generate pages suggesting connections between drugs and side effects based on FDA data scraping. He argues these sites are misleading and potentially harmful, as they can cause patients to stop taking necessary medications due to unfounded fears of side effects. The post begins with a personal anecdote about a patient concerned about Xolair causing depression, then delves into how these websites operate and why their information is unreliable. Scott emphasizes the scummy nature of these practices and their potential to harm vulnerable individuals, concluding with a stark example of how such misinformation could lead to tragedy. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander dissects and criticizes Breitbart's misleading use of statistics about illegal immigrant crime, emphasizing the need for better understanding and interpretation of data in political debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Breitbart article about illegal immigrant crime statistics, pointing out numerous flaws in their reasoning and use of data. He highlights how the article misinterprets or misrepresents statistics, fails to provide necessary context, and makes illogical conclusions. Scott argues that while there may be legitimate concerns about illegal immigration, the article's approach is misleading and unhelpful. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing flawed arguments on both sides of political debates, rather than assuming one's opponents are simply gullible. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering recent research, controversies, and developments across various fields including science, economics, politics and sociology, with Scott's brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics and recent research findings. Scott shares interesting links about economics, science, politics, and sociology. The post includes studies on racial bias in policing, diet soda effects, mass shootings statistics, refugee integration in Sweden, and various other topics. He also discusses controversial topics like cultural appropriation and gun control debates, while maintaining a balanced and analytical perspective. The format follows Scott's typical style of providing brief commentary and context for each link shared. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, economics, and culture, with key stories about psychology study replication failures and various scientific findings. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Scott shares updates on topics ranging from economics to psychology to politics. Key highlights include a discussion of the psychology replication crisis where only half of major studies replicated, new findings about e-cigarettes being safer than smoking, insights into carbon offset fraud in Russia and Ukraine, and various scientific studies on topics like genetics and obesity, women in STEM fields, and the effects of school schedules on academic performance. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various news articles and studies, covering topics from police tactics and Trump's campaign to behavioral genetics and dietary research. Longer summary

A diverse collection of links covering various topics, with Scott Alexander's commentary on each. The post includes news about politics, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Highlights include a discussion of police tactics against drug dealers, updates on Trump's campaign, studies about bombing in Vietnam, diet research, and behavioral genetics. The post maintains a light and sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious topics, with Scott adding his characteristic analytical perspective and occasional wit to each link. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, politics and culture, with Scott's commentary on each topic. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics. It starts with interesting historical anecdotes like Kipling designing an engineering ritual and the passage of the Habeas Corpus Act. It covers recent news and developments in politics, technology, and science, including Elon Musk's SpaceX ships, cancer therapies, and climate change agreements. The post also discusses several academic papers and studies, addressing topics like citation practices, telomere research, and financial returns to education. Throughout, Scott maintains a skeptical eye toward overblown claims and provides commentary on various social and political developments. Shorter summary