Scott explores what constitutes a deontological bar (hard moral rule) by examining when consequentialist reasoning should be constrained, using debates within AI safety about working with AI companies versus pursuing regulation as his main examples. Longer summary

Scott examines the concept of deontological bars - hard moral rules that shouldn't be broken even for good consequences - and tries to develop a framework for determining what counts as such a rule. He starts with the classic example of not assassinating leaders, then explores various formulations like 'act as if your maxim would become a general law' and 'don't defect from functioning norms,' testing them against cases like military disarmament and spreading misinformation. The post is motivated by debates in AI safety between those working with AI companies and those pursuing pause/ban regulations, with each side suspecting the other might be violating deontological bars. Scott proposes that the rule might be 'don't do something which would be bad if universalized, unless the norm is non-functioning in such a way that you'd be playing cooperate while your enemy plays defect,' though he acknowledges this requires interpretive work and common sense to apply. Shorter summary

Scott opens a classifieds thread for readers to advertise employment, dating, blogs, products, meetups and other services in organized categories with guidelines for respectful posting. Longer summary

This is a classifieds thread post where Scott invites readers to advertise various things in the comments section. The post establishes several categories for advertisements including Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, and Other. Scott provides guidelines for posting, emphasizing that commenters should respond to appropriate top-level categories and be respectful, especially toward people posting dating ads. The post also includes links to EA job boards, internships, and meetup resources. Shorter summary

Scott argues that worrying about escaping a "permanent underclass" after AI is misguided, and that instead people should focus on the real opportunity: making meaningful contributions during this pivotal moment in history that will be remembered by future civilizations forever. Longer summary

Scott argues that the "permanent underclass" meme is misguided fearmongering targeting well-off Silicon Valley people worried about not becoming oligarchs after AI. He contends that even in the unlikely scenario where this happens, they'll still be fine (citing Dario Amodei's charitable pledges), and that worrying about wealth accumulation misses the real opportunity: we're living at a pivotal moment in history that will be studied forever. Drawing parallels to figures like St. Veronica (remembered for giving Jesus a washcloth), Scott suggests that random acts and contributions during crucial historical moments are remembered far longer than wealth. He encourages readers to focus on making meaningful contributions - through discourse, art, charity, or discovery - rather than obsessing over becoming ultra-wealthy, as future galactic civilizations will remember those who participated meaningfully in this "hinge of history" moment. Shorter summary

Scott argues that taking the Giving What We Can Pledge to donate a fixed percentage of income is the single most impactful decision most people can make, eliminating donation stress while maximizing charitable impact. Longer summary

Scott advocates for taking the Giving What We Can Pledge, arguing that committing to donate a fixed percentage of income (typically 10%) to effective charities is one of the most impactful decisions someone can make. He describes how he used to feel stressed and irrational about charitable giving before discovering the pledge, and explains that having a predetermined commitment eliminates the guilt and decision fatigue of responding to individual fundraising appeals. The post emphasizes that for most people, financial donations are their most powerful tool for changing the world, and that making a binding pledge - rather than relying on willpower for each donation - is the key to actually following through on altruistic values. Shorter summary

Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary

Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary

Scott announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants round, awarding $1.5 million to 42 projects out of 654 applications, covering areas from genetic engineering and disease prevention to AI safety and educational reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants program, which received 654 applications and funded 42 projects across diverse areas including global health, AI safety, metascience, animal welfare, and development economics. The grants range from $5,000 to $150,000 and support initiatives like genetically engineered nutritious corn, screwworm eradication, lead-acid battery recycling programs, organ donation improvement, AI bias research, and various biosecurity and pandemic prevention projects. Scott thanks the funders, Manifund team, and numerous expert evaluators who helped assess applications, and notes that some projects remain in stealth mode. The post concludes with extensive credits to contributors and mentions that the next grants round will likely occur in late 2026 or early 2027. Shorter summary

A satirical story about a Bay Area house party that combines text adventure games with social commentary about Silicon Valley culture, tech companies, and effective altruism. Longer summary

This is a satirical story about a Bay Area house party, written as a humorous fictional narrative combining text-based adventure games with social commentary. The story follows the narrator attending a party that's been ruined by Mark Zuckerberg trying to poach everyone for Meta, then meeting various Silicon Valley characters including effective altruists discussing existential risks, people working on startups, and others debating philosophical concepts. The story pokes fun at Silicon Valley culture, AI companies' GPU hoarding, EA concepts, and tech startup culture through increasingly absurd situations. Shorter summary

Scott reviews updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients (from 2021 and 2024), analyzing their progress and sharing lessons learned about what makes grants successful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews progress updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients - the first cohort from 2021 (after 3 years) and the second from 2024 (after 1 year). The post methodically goes through each grant's status, with many showing significant progress in areas like AI safety advocacy, animal welfare, scientific research, and political lobbying. Scott then analyzes patterns in what made grants successful, finding that lobbying organizations and animal welfare projects were particularly effective, while scientific grants were harder to evaluate. He concludes that while not all projects succeeded, the $3 million program generated good value through both direct impact and startup creation, and he plans to continue it with some adjustments. Shorter summary

Through various thought experiments around the drowning child scenario, Scott critiques common moral frameworks and proposes using Rawls' 'original position' to develop a more coherent system of moral obligations. Longer summary

Scott explores the limitations of distance and entanglement in Peter Singer's drowning child thought experiment through several creative variations. He examines two descriptive theories that explain our moral intuitions: the Copenhagen interpretation of ethics (gaining moral obligation by 'touching' a situation) and declining marginal utility of moral goods. However, he argues against using these as prescriptive theories, showing through thought experiments how they lead to absurd outcomes. Instead, he proposes using Rawls' 'original position' as a framework: imagining pre-incarnation intelligences making deals about earthly moral obligations. This leads to a system where everyone contributes to a general pot for helping others, with local emergency obligations distributed based on proximity and ability to help, not moral luck. Shorter summary

Scott argues that debates about prioritizing Americans over foreigners in the PEPFAR controversy miss the point, as cancelled foreign aid money wouldn't automatically fund effective domestic programs but would instead be spent much less efficiently. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques recent discussions about PEPFAR, a successful AIDS program in Africa that was briefly paused. He argues that debates about whether we should prioritize Americans over foreigners miss the key point: money saved from canceling highly effective programs like PEPFAR wouldn't automatically go to equally effective domestic programs. Instead, it would likely fund much less effective initiatives or get lost in general federal spending. The post explains how government spending tends to be inefficient, and argues that even if you value American lives more than foreign ones, the effectiveness gap between PEPFAR and likely alternative uses of the money is so large (around 100x) that you would need to value foreign lives at literally zero to justify canceling it. Shorter summary

Scott critiques self-proclaimed moral nihilists who claim to not care about strangers' suffering, by pointing out their passionate response to the British grooming gangs scandal reveals they actually do care. Longer summary

Scott points out that self-proclaimed 'based post-Christian vitalists' who claim to reject caring about suffering of strangers in far-off countries, suddenly become very passionate about the British grooming gangs scandal. He argues this reveals their true moral nature - that like everyone else, they do have basic moral impulses that include caring about suffering of strangers. The post examines different ways people try to reconcile their contradictory moral impulses, and argues that admitting to having moral concern for others is more honest than trying to maintain a facade of not caring. Shorter summary

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary

Scott examines why early Christianity's strategy of unconditional cooperation succeeded despite game theory predicting it should fail, and explores what this means for modern moral strategies. Longer summary

Scott explores the paradox of early Christianity's success despite following a COOPERATE-BOT strategy (always cooperate, even with enemies) rather than the game-theoretically optimal TIT-FOR-TAT strategy (cooperate first, then mirror opponent's last move). He analyzes historical examples like the Quakers and compares them to modern liberalism, then presents several theories for why COOPERATE-BOT might sometimes succeed against expectations. While he remains personally skeptical of fully embracing COOPERATE-BOT, he notes that history seems to favor extremely cooperative strategies more than game theory would predict. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a scaled-up voting guide project for major US cities, outlining a process for local ACX meetup groups to create and submit ballot recommendations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a plan to scale up his annual voting guide by producing voter guides for major US cities with a significant ACX readership. He outlines a process where local meetup groups will research and agree on recommendations for their ballots, focusing on downballot races and local issues. The post provides guidelines for organizers, including how to structure recommendations, handle disagreements, and determine voting choices. Scott emphasizes that the guides should reflect the ACX political position of 'centrist with progressive and libertarian sympathies' and invites participation from established meetup groups outside the listed cities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces an irregular classifieds thread for ACX readers to post advertisements in various categories, with guidelines and related resources. Longer summary

This post announces the irregular classifieds thread on Astral Codex Ten, providing a space for readers to advertise various things in the comments. The post outlines categories for advertisements including Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, and Other. It emphasizes the need to post under the appropriate category and asks for kindness, especially towards dating ads. The post also includes links to potentially related resources such as job boards, internship listings, dating documents, and meetup finders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy, exploring various perspectives on master and slave morality. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy. It covers various perspectives on master and slave morality, critiques of different thinkers mentioned in the original post, and other related topics. The comments explore nuances in Nietzsche's philosophy, discuss the applicability of these concepts to modern society, and debate the merits of different moral frameworks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that altruism and vitalism mostly align in practice, and that focusing on their theoretical divergences often stems from signaling rather than genuine pursuit of societal improvement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his understanding of the Nietzschean objection to altruism, particularly the idea that vitalism (maximizing life, glory, and strength) is superior. He argues that in most normal cases, altruism and vitalism suggest the same solutions, and their apparent divergence only occurs in extreme, unrealistic scenarios. Scott suggests that both philosophies, when taken to extremes, lead to absurd outcomes. He expresses suspicion towards those who focus too much on the divergence between altruism and vitalism in normal cases, arguing that such focus often stems from a desire to signal toughness rather than genuinely pursuing societal strength. The post concludes by challenging vitalists to 'pretend to really try' in implementing their philosophy, suggesting that this would likely lead to outcomes similar to those pursued by altruists. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Nietzsche's concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality', analyzing their modern manifestations and exploring potential compromises between these opposing moral frameworks. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality' introduced by Nietzsche, analyzing their manifestations in modern society and various ideologies. He discusses how these moral frameworks are reflected in figures like Ayn Rand, Andrew Tate, and Matt Yglesias, as well as in movements like effective altruism. The post examines the tensions between these moral systems and attempts to find a balance or transcendence of the dichotomy, ultimately suggesting that a cyclical, civilization-building approach might offer a meaningful compromise. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Lyman Stone's critique of Effective Altruism (EA), addressing several key arguments. He points out flaws in Stone's methodology for evaluating EA's impact on charitable giving, explains why EA focuses on diverse causes, defends the value of research and white-collar work in philanthropy, argues against the suggestion of extreme measures like terrorism, and discusses the philosophical foundations of caring about animal welfare. Scott also refutes the claim that EA ideas are unoriginal, highlighting the movement's unique aspects and its role as a social technology for promoting altruistic behavior. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants 2024, detailing the winners and their projects. The grants cover a wide range of areas including medical research, technology development, policy advocacy, and scientific studies. Scott explains the selection process, acknowledges contributors, and mentions future plans for the grants program. He also discusses how Manifund will handle payments and create an impact market for unfunded projects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how investigative journalism can target unpopular individuals or groups, using recent examples to illustrate the potential chilling effects and biases in media coverage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how investigative journalism can be used as a weapon against individuals or groups who become unpopular or controversial. He cites three examples: the plagiarism accusations against Claudine Gay, the investigation into Neri Oxman, and the negative coverage of effective altruism after the FTX scandal. Scott argues that journalists tend to dig up old scandals or minor misdeeds when a person or group becomes unpopular, creating a chilling effect. He contrasts this with his ideal of journalism comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable. Scott also relates this to his personal experience with negative media coverage and concludes by connecting this phenomenon to his previous article on not learning too much from dramatic events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his capitalism vs charity post, clarifying his argument and addressing various counterpoints and suggested capitalist charities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about capitalism and charity. He clarifies that he's discussing a specific near-mode situation of how to best use a limited amount of money for improving human welfare, not running a 'Moral Worth Tournament' between capitalism and charity. He addresses arguments for investing in capitalism over charity, discussing issues like compounding returns, marginal utility, and the eventual need for consumption. Scott also explores specific capitalist charities suggested by commenters, including charter cities and microfinance, noting the lack of strong empirical evidence for many of these interventions. He concludes by stating what kind of evidence would change his mind on this topic. Shorter summary