Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts. Longer summary

Scott lays out his detailed probabilistic beliefs about AI development across five main areas: timelines for AGI and superintelligence (25% chance of AGI by 2027, 50% by 2034), safety prospects (20% chance of doom given current safety efforts, down from 50% without them), geopolitics around AI pauses (40% chance of US-China pause agreement before point of no return), other outcomes like permanent underclass (only 20% likely to last more than a generation), and simulation hypothesis (66% chance the singularity is related to us being in a simulation). He provides arguments for optimism and pessimism on each point, with his modal scenario involving AGI in 2031, widespread automation by late 2030s, and Bostromian superintelligence making GDP go vertical in the early 2040s. The post is technical and probabilistic throughout, written in response to misinterpretations of his views. Shorter summary

Scott announces the 2026 book review contest with a May 20th deadline, requiring anonymized submissions via Google Form, offering prizes of at least $2,500/$1,000/$500 for the top three winners. Longer summary

Scott announces the 2026 book review contest with rules and guidelines. Entries should be book reviews between 2,000-10,000 words, submitted via Google Form with an anonymized Google Doc by May 20th. The contest will have a finalist selection round voted on by readers in spring, with finalists posted weekly through summer, followed by final voting in late summer/fall. Prizes are at least $2,500 for first place, $1,000 for second, and $500 for third, plus publicity, free subscriptions, and potential writing opportunities. Scott emphasizes the contest should be blind (no identifying information in the document itself) and notes he may provide mild affirmative action for nontraditional categories like fiction, poetry, or pre-1900 books. Shorter summary

Scott opens voting for the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest finalists, listing all thirteen entries and providing a link to the ranked-choice voting form. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces voting for the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest finalists, providing links to all thirteen finalist entries and the voting form. The post lists the diverse topics of the finalists, ranging from education and science to personal experiences and historical events. Voting will use ranked choice format where voters pick their top three choices, and closes on October 13. Shorter summary

A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2025 ACX Grants program offering $1M in microgrants for charitable and scientific projects, with a new equity-sharing component for projects that become startups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2025 ACX Grants program, a microgrants initiative funding charitable and scientific projects from ACX readers. He plans to contribute $200K with an expected additional $800K from other donors, for grants ranging from $5K to $50K. This year introduces a new feature where some grants will be replaced with SAFEs or convertible grants, giving ACX Grants equity claims if projects become successful startups. The post details application processes, timelines, types of projects they're interested in, and various ways others can help as funders, VCs, evaluators, or friendly professionals. Shorter summary

Scott reviews updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients (from 2021 and 2024), analyzing their progress and sharing lessons learned about what makes grants successful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews progress updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients - the first cohort from 2021 (after 3 years) and the second from 2024 (after 1 year). The post methodically goes through each grant's status, with many showing significant progress in areas like AI safety advocacy, animal welfare, scientific research, and political lobbying. Scott then analyzes patterns in what made grants successful, finding that lobbying organizations and animal welfare projects were particularly effective, while scientific grants were harder to evaluate. He concludes that while not all projects succeeded, the $3 million program generated good value through both direct impact and startup creation, and he plans to continue it with some adjustments. Shorter summary

Scott asks readers to help select finalists for the Non-Book Review Contest by rating entries through a provided form, with voting open until June 20. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting phase for the Non-Book Review Contest 2025, asking readers to help narrow down 141 entries to about a dozen finalists. He provides links to categorized lists of entries (Other A-I, J-S, T-Z, Games, Music, TV/Movies) and a rating form. He specifically asks readers not to read entries in order but either randomly or based on interest, to ensure more even distribution of votes. The post includes the full list of entries and mentions a June 20 deadline for voting. Shorter summary

Scott announces a contest for reviews of anything except books, with prizes ranging from $500 to $2,500, due May 12th. Longer summary

Scott announces a variation on his yearly book review contest: instead of reviewing books, participants should review anything else - movies, products, societies, abstract concepts, etc. The post outlines the contest rules, including word count guidelines (2,000-10,000 words), submission process through a Google Form, and prize money ($2,500 for first place). Scott emphasizes that submissions should be anonymous and provides formatting guidelines for footnotes. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the results of the 2025 ACX reader survey, revealing interesting patterns in reader demographics, beliefs, and behaviors, with some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the general readership. Longer summary

Scott presents the results of the 2025 ACX survey, which had 5,975 respondents. He shares several interesting findings, including Trump's slight increase in favorability among readers, Long COVID trends, mask-wearing habits, architecture preferences, the impact of his voting guide, statistics about shoplifting and opinions on punishments, attitudes towards homeless encampments, cryptocurrency usage, and experiences with ayahuasca. The data shows some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the silent majority of readers, particularly on issues like crime and punishment. Scott makes the data publicly available with some privacy-protecting restrictions. Shorter summary

Scott announces the annual ACX reader survey for 2025, offering free subscriptions to random participants and highlighting interesting findings from previous years. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2025 ACX Survey, a yearly tradition that helps him understand his readership while enabling him to investigate interesting hypotheses and replicate psychological findings. He references several interesting findings from past surveys, including studies on birth order effects and sexual harassment rates in different fields. The post includes a link to this year's survey and mentions a reward of free one-year paid subscriptions for five random participants. Shorter summary

Scott presents results from his AI art Turing test showing most people struggled to distinguish AI from human art, with professionals doing slightly better and participants unexpectedly preferring AI art. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the results of his AI art Turing test where 11,000 people tried to distinguish between human and AI-generated art. The median score was 60%, only slightly above chance, showing most people had difficulty identifying AI art. Participants tended to judge images based on style rather than subtle quality differences, incorrectly assuming traditional styles were human and digital art was AI. Interestingly, people slightly preferred AI art even when they claimed to hate it. However, professional artists and AI critics scored better at detection, suggesting they may notice subtle flaws that others miss. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces an AI Art Turing Test with a link to a form, closing on 10/21, with results to be posted the following week. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces an AI Art Turing Test, providing a link to a form that readers can complete. The test is expected to take about 20 minutes, and the form will close on Monday 10/21. Scott plans to post the results the following week. He mentions that an answer key will be provided in the comments of the post, with a more detailed version including attributions in the results post. Scott advises readers not to read the comments until they've completed the test. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a scaled-up voting guide project for major US cities, outlining a process for local ACX meetup groups to create and submit ballot recommendations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a plan to scale up his annual voting guide by producing voter guides for major US cities with a significant ACX readership. He outlines a process where local meetup groups will research and agree on recommendations for their ballots, focusing on downballot races and local issues. The post provides guidelines for organizers, including how to structure recommendations, handle disagreements, and determine voting choices. Scott emphasizes that the guides should reflect the ACX political position of 'centrist with progressive and libertarian sympathies' and invites participation from established meetup groups outside the listed cities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2024 Book Review Contest, explaining the approval voting system and listing the finalists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting process for the 2024 Book Review Contest. He explains that this year they are using approval voting, where voters can select multiple favorites, and the entry with the most votes wins. Scott provides a link to the voting form, lists the 14 finalist book reviews, and mentions a prediction market for the contest outcome. He advises voters not to check the prediction market until after voting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 5,981 participants. He provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers a downloadable dataset of responses from those who agreed to share their data publicly. Scott mentions that more detailed analyses will be published throughout the year, and invites readers to explore the data themselves. He also notes some measures taken to protect respondents' anonymity in the public dataset. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Survey, inviting readers to participate and potentially win a free subscription. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces his annual reader survey for 2024, which serves to gather information about his readership and to replicate psychological findings. He mentions some interesting results from past surveys, explains that the survey will take 15-30 minutes, and offers free one-year paid subscriptions to five randomly-selected respondents as an incentive. Scott provides a link to the survey and asks readers to report any significant issues with the questions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 Book Review Contest, detailing submission guidelines, prizes, and a new focus on including nontraditional book categories. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 Book Review Contest, inviting readers to submit reviews of books. The contest has no strict word count requirement, but previous successful entries were between 2,000 and 10,000 words. Entries should be submitted through a Google Form, with the actual review in a separate, unlocked Google Doc. The contest aims to be as blind as possible, so reviewers should not include identifying information in their review. Prizes range from $500 to $2,500, with additional benefits for winners and finalists. This year, about 25% of finalist slots will be reserved for reviews of books from nontraditional categories like fiction, poetry, or pre-1900 works. The submission deadline is May 5th. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2023 Book Review Contest, detailing the ranked choice voting process and listing the finalists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting process for the 2023 Book Review Contest, explaining that it will use ranked choice voting where voters select their top three favorites. He provides a link to the voting form, lists the 16 finalists, and mentions a prediction market for the contest outcome. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism of his post on housing density and prices, refining but largely maintaining his argument that increased density can raise local prices. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about housing density and prices. He addresses several key points, including whether density causes desirability, the role of jobs and amenities in city desirability, Chinese ghost cities, comparisons to Tokyo, accusations of misunderstanding economics, and opinions from notable experts. Scott refines some of his views but maintains his core argument that increasing density within a city can increase housing prices by making the city more desirable, while acknowledging this effect may be limited or outweighed by other factors in many cases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2023 Book Review Contest, detailing submission guidelines, prizes, and deadlines for book review entries. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2023 Book Review Contest, inviting readers to submit reviews of any book they choose. The contest details include submission guidelines, prize amounts, and judging criteria. Entries should be submitted through a Google Form by April 5th, with the actual review in an unlocked Google Doc. Scott emphasizes the importance of anonymity in the review document to ensure fair judging. Prizes range from $500 to $2,500, with additional benefits for winners and finalists. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2022 ACX survey, providing links to questions, results, and downloadable datasets, with notes on privacy measures and future analyses. Longer summary

This post announces the results of the 2022 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 7,341 participants. Scott Alexander provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers downloadable datasets for public use. He mentions that more detailed analyses will be published over the coming year. The post also includes information on data anonymization measures taken to protect respondents' privacy, and notes some limitations and peculiarities in the data collection process. Scott encourages readers to explore the data themselves and offers to provide more complete information upon request. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses reactions to his claim that media rarely lies, exploring different interpretations of 'lying' and examining specific cases of alleged media deception. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the reactions to his previous posts about media rarely lying, addressing various criticisms and examples provided by commenters. He explores different interpretations of 'lying', examines specific cases of alleged media deception, and reiterates his position that while media often misleads or reasons poorly, it rarely engages in outright fabrication of facts. Scott also reflects on the nature of conspiracy theories and the importance of understanding how people can genuinely believe false things. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 ('Full Mode') of the 2023 Prediction Contest, following the closure of Stage 1 ('Blind Mode'). In this stage, participants are encouraged to use any resources available to make accurate predictions, including personal research, prediction markets, forecasting tournaments, and the 3295 blind mode answers from Stage 1. Scott provides suggestions on how to use these resources and emphasizes that there's no such thing as cheating, except for time travel or harming competitors. He also mentions that the form will ask for a brief description of the strategy used. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2022 ACX Survey, highlighting past findings and offering incentives for participation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2022 ACX Survey, an annual reader survey that helps him understand his audience and investigate interesting hypotheses. He highlights some findings from previous years, estimates the survey will take 20-40 minutes to complete, and offers free one-year paid subscriptions to five randomly-selected respondents as an incentive. The survey will be open until January 15, and readers are encouraged to report any problems in the comments. Shorter summary