A satirical story about a Bay Area house party where men pretend to be connected to right-wing figures to attract journalists, while exploring tech culture and social media dynamics. Longer summary

Scott writes a satirical story about a Bay Area house party where men engage in 'curtfishing' - pretending to be connected to right-wing figures to attract female journalists. The story follows various conversations at the party, including one with someone pretending to be Curtis Yarvin, a startup founder working on automated condemnations, and a discussion about the addictive and damaging nature of Twitter (now X). The story is filled with tech culture in-jokes and commentary on social media dynamics, journalism, and Silicon Valley culture. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Bryan Caplan's book arguing that modern parents can relax their intensive parenting, while wrestling with whether this advice still applies in the age of smartphones and social media. Longer summary

Scott reviews Bryan Caplan's book 'Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids', exploring its main arguments about how parents today spend much more time on childcare than previous generations despite evidence that parenting style doesn't greatly affect outcomes. The post explores historical childcare data, the cultural shift away from letting kids play unsupervised, and modern challenges like screen time. Scott, dealing with his own twins, finds the book's advice about relaxing parenting standards compelling but struggles with modern concerns about phones and technology that weren't relevant when the book was written in 2011. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his Elon Musk book review, covering various aspects of Musk's life, work, and personality. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of highlights from comments on Scott Alexander's review of Elon Musk's biography. It covers various aspects of Musk's career and personality, including debates about his intelligence and mental health, discussions about his companies (Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX, Boring Company), his Mars colonization plans, and comparisons to other historical figures. The post also includes critiques of Scott's original review and updates to his views based on the comments. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

Scott provides a real-world example of how the phrase 'no evidence' can be misused in science reporting, contrasting it with a prediction market's more nuanced response. Longer summary

This post is an addendum to Scott's previous article about the misuse of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication. He provides a recent example from the Financial Times, which claimed there was 'no evidence' that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was less deadly than Delta, based on a single study. Scott contrasts this with the Metaculus prediction market's response to the same study, showing how the market briefly dipped but quickly recovered and increased its prediction that Omicron was indeed less lethal. He presents this as a clear illustration of the difference between classical (frequentist) and Bayesian approaches to evidence and probability. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes. Longer summary

This post reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his transformation from a liberal democrat to a far-right nationalist and his methods of consolidating control. Scott describes Orban's background, his political maneuvering, and how he exploited Hungary's political system to create a near-impregnable position. The post also discusses Orban's anti-immigrant stance during the 2015 refugee crisis and his attempts to boost Hungary's fertility rate. Scott concludes by expressing his dislike for Orban, comparing him unfavorably to other dictators, and warning about the dangers of leaving political loopholes that can be exploited by such figures. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Richard Hanania's explanation for liberal dominance in institutions, attributing it instead to shifting coalition systems described by Thomas Piketty. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Richard Hanania's article asking why everything is liberal despite roughly equal numbers of conservative and liberal voters. Alexander argues that the reason is not, as Hanania suggests, that liberals care more about politics, but rather due to shifting coalition systems as described by Thomas Piketty. Piketty's research shows a change from a 1950s system of elite vs. common parties to a current system where the left captures highly educated voters while the right captures less educated and some wealthy voters. This shift explains why institutions dominated by highly educated people lean liberal. Alexander discusses the implications of this shift, including potential instability in the system and the risk of institutional monocultures. He suggests potential solutions like decreasing the importance of college degrees in society and solving racism to shake up political coalitions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras, detailing its plans, governance, and potential impact while addressing criticisms and limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras. He explains its origins, current status, ambitious plans, governance structure, and potential impact. The post also addresses criticisms and concerns about the project, while acknowledging its limitations and potential benefits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes an article downplaying AI risks in favor of mundane technologies, arguing this represents misplaced caution given AI's potential existential threat. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Financial Times article that argues simple technologies like barbed wire are often more transformative than complex ones like AI. While agreeing that mundane innovations can be important, Scott argues this shouldn't dismiss concerns about AI risks. He introduces the concept of local vs. global caution, suggesting that dismissing AI risks as unlikely is the wrong kind of caution given the potential stakes. He points out the severe underfunding of AI safety research compared to trivial pursuits, arguing that society's apathy towards AI risks is not cautious skepticism but dangerous insanity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the tension between adopting voter-friendly strategies and maintaining intellectual rigor in political discourse, warning against sacrificing competent governance for electoral success. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the debate surrounding Hillary Clinton's campaign mistakes and potential changes for the Democratic Party. He argues that while certain approaches may be effective for winning elections, they might not be conducive to good governance. The post explores the tension between adopting strategies that appeal to voters and maintaining an epistemic culture that allows for competent leadership. Scott warns against political parties and media outlets fully embracing emotional appeals and simplistic messaging at the expense of factual, nuanced discourse. He suggests that most of the audience for online content and publications are not the general public, so these platforms should maintain higher standards of intellectual discourse. Shorter summary

A links post featuring various news and articles about politics, science, and culture, with Scott's commentary on research papers and current events. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and articles from around the web. Topics range from climate change and politics to scientific studies and charitable giving. Scott comments on several research papers, including ones about non-citizen voting and healthcare in Cuba. The post also includes interesting side notes about geography, prison marriages, and literary references. Many of the links are accompanied by Scott's brief commentary or witty observations. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on scientific studies, political news, cultural phenomena, and personal observations across various fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, political news, and cultural phenomena. Scott covers a wide range of subjects, from the effects of ultraviolet radiation on weight gain to the decline of cults, global inequality trends, genetic links to violent crime, and the concept of competitive governance. He also discusses recent political events, media controversies, and developments in artificial intelligence research. The post includes personal observations, book recommendations, and reflections on social dynamics within online communities. Shorter summary