Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development. Longer summary

Scott reviews reactions to the Hugging Face hacking incident, focusing on the landmark 'Pacing The Frontier' open letter signed by 1,000+ employees from major AI labs calling for international coordination to slow AI development. The post covers various perspectives on whether individual companies can/should unilaterally slow down, details of the hack itself, and introduces AIFP's framework of five possible plans (D through A/S) for handling superintelligence development, with the open letter significantly increasing the probability of 'Plan A' (coordinated international agreement). Shorter summary

Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary

Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Scott examines a paradox where bloomers and anti-doomers warn against apocalyptic thinking while treating doomerism itself as an unprecedented existential crisis requiring drastic action. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Jason Pargin's novel 'I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom' and similar arguments from Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and progress studies advocates, noting they all share a contradiction: they argue we should stop treating problems as unprecedented crises, except for the problem of treating problems as crises, which they present as uniquely dangerous. The post examines how these thinkers simultaneously advocate against doomerism while expressing extreme concern about doomerism itself. Scott argues this reveals that strong views about a 'crisis of doomerism' are incompatible with worldviews that reject the existence of real crises, and concludes that optimism should be a heuristic rather than an absolute principle, with problems (including excessive doomerism) evaluated based on evidence using consistent standards. Shorter summary

Scott explores three approaches to 'writing for AI' - teaching knowledge, influencing beliefs, and enabling simulation - finding the first limited, the second theoretically confused, and the third creepy and ethically troubling. Longer summary

Scott examines the concept of 'writing for AI' - creating content that will influence future AI systems - through three lenses: helping AIs learn knowledge, presenting arguments to shape AI beliefs, and helping AIs model writers in enough detail to recreate them. He finds the first two either limited or theoretically muddled, and the third deeply unsettling. The post explores why influencing AI beliefs faces both practical obstacles (alignment training will override corpus data) and theoretical ones (finding the right sweet spot of influence). Scott is particularly disturbed by the idea of AIs simulating him, comparing it to being 'an ape in some transhuman zoo,' and struggles with questions about whether writers should try to impose their values on future AI systems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of 61 interesting links, spanning topics from AI development and scientific studies to cultural observations and policy discussions. The post covers diverse subjects including GPT-5's reception, genetic research, religious demographics, urban development, mental health studies, and various scientific discoveries. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of these items, often connecting them to broader themes or offering his perspective on controversial issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen's criticism of his previous post about USAID funding. He addresses several points: whether Cowen endorsed Rubio's claims about USAID waste, the true nature of overhead costs in USAID-funded organizations, and the broader debate about foreign aid effectiveness. Scott shows that actual administrative overhead in major USAID partners like Catholic Relief Services is much lower than previously thought (around 6-7% rather than 30%), admits his mistake on this point, but maintains his criticism of Cowen's original post as misleading. He argues that USAID's work is predominantly focused on essential humanitarian aid rather than wasteful programs. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes Tyler Cowen and others for misrepresenting USAID's funding model, explaining how regranting through other charities is both necessary and effective despite seeming inefficient to outsiders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Marginal Revolution post by Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, where Cowen suggests that only 12% of funds go to recipients. Scott explains that this is misleading because USAID is not a direct charity but a funding organization that works through other charities. He details how the grant-making process works, defends the overhead costs, and points out that Cowen himself runs an organization (Mercatus Center) that does similar regranting. Scott particularly criticizes Trump and Rubio for misrepresenting these programs as wasteful, noting that programs like PEPFAR have saved millions of lives and have very low rates of unexplained expenses. Shorter summary

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post featuring various interesting news, studies, and curiosities from April 2025. The post covers a wide range of topics including AI developments (particularly around OpenAI and truth-seeking AI), political updates (about Trump, immigration policy, and minimum wage effects), cultural items (like etymology of cowboy terms and medieval perception), and scientific findings. Scott maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding his own analysis or perspective on controversial topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott makes his annual pitch for paid subscriptions to Astral Codex Ten, detailing benefits, showing subscription trends, and listing past subscriber-only content while unlocking two posts as previews. Longer summary

Scott announces his annual subscription drive for Astral Codex Ten, showing subscription trends since the blog's start and listing the subscriber-only posts from the past year. The post explains the benefits of subscribing ($10/month or $2.50 for students/hardship cases), shows how subscriptions peaked early then declined, and lists all twelve subscriber-only posts from the previous year. Scott emphasizes he's financially comfortable but would like to do better than break-even, and unlocks two old subscriber-only posts as a preview. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Progress Studies Conference, which focused on various technological and social advancements. The conference covered topics such as energy (particularly solar and nuclear power), politics and regulation, AI, YIMBY movement, self-driving cars, and other areas of potential progress. The overall mood was optimistic about recent developments in these fields, with many speakers highlighting how regulatory changes could accelerate progress. Scott notes that while the conference itself may not be directly responsible for recent advances, it reflects a growing awareness of the importance of technological progress and the need to address regulatory barriers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Nietzsche's concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality', analyzing their modern manifestations and exploring potential compromises between these opposing moral frameworks. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality' introduced by Nietzsche, analyzing their manifestations in modern society and various ideologies. He discusses how these moral frameworks are reflected in figures like Ayn Rand, Andrew Tate, and Matt Yglesias, as well as in movements like effective altruism. The post examines the tensions between these moral systems and attempts to find a balance or transcendence of the dichotomy, ultimately suggesting that a cyclical, civilization-building approach might offer a meaningful compromise. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 41 links and news items, covering topics from science and politics to history and technology, with brief commentaries and insights. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items covering a wide range of topics. The items include scientific studies, political developments, historical anecdotes, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander presents these with brief commentaries, often adding his own insights or expressing skepticism about certain claims. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott pointing out interesting connections or implications of the information presented. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 40 diverse links and news items covering topics such as AI developments, politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. It includes updates on OpenAI and Google's AI projects, discussions on religious phenomena, analyses of social and economic trends, and various interesting facts and anecdotes. The author provides commentary and context for many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. Shorter summary

A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander tests a hypothesis about gender integration moderating political views using his survey data, finding no significant effect of sibling gender on political attitudes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a claim about gender differences in political attitudes and tests a hypothesis using data from his 2022 survey. The post discusses a reported growing political gap between men and women, and a proposed explanation that increased gender integration might moderate political views. Scott tests this by comparing political attitudes of men and women with only brothers or only sisters. The results show no significant effect, suggesting that sibling gender doesn't influence political views in the way proposed. Scott also discusses potential limitations of using his survey data and mentions other explanations and challenges to the original finding. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his post about dating preferences, covering various perspectives and addressing critiques of 'dating docs'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about dating preferences and 'dating docs'. He covers various perspectives, including those against dating docs, concerns about status signaling, insights from traditional cultures like Orthodox Judaism, research on dating preferences, experiences of people in unusual relationships, reactions to sample dating profiles, and areas where he changed his mind. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes the AI-focused issue of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting key articles on AI forecasting, testing, and impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents an overview of the latest issue of Asterisk Magazine, which focuses on AI. He highlights several articles, including his own piece on forecasting AI progress, interviews with experts on AI testing and China's AI situation, discussions on the future of microchips and AI's impact on economic growth, and various other pieces on AI safety, regulation, and related topics. The post also mentions non-AI articles and congratulates the Asterisk team on their work. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines hypergamy in modern marriages, finding educational hypergamy has reversed while income hypergamy persists, with strong class homogamy for both genders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of hypergamy, particularly focusing on educational and income differences in heterosexual marriages. He finds that while educational hypergamy (women marrying more educated men) has reversed due to women's increasing educational attainment, income hypergamy (women marrying higher-earning men) persists. The post explores various studies on class, income, and educational matching in marriages, discusses the role of physical attractiveness, and touches on hypergamy in same-sex relationships. Scott concludes that class homogamy is strong for both genders, with looks playing a smaller role than often assumed in mate selection. Shorter summary

The review explores Jane Jacobs' economic theories from two of her books, focusing on the importance of cities in economic development and challenging conventional wisdom on separatism and large political entities. Longer summary

This review examines two books by Jane Jacobs: 'Cities and the Wealth of Nations' and 'The Question of Separatism'. The reviewer explores Jacobs' economic theories, which center on the importance of cities in economic development. Jacobs argues that cities, not nations, are the fundamental units of economic life, and that the process of import replacement is crucial for economic growth. The review also discusses Jacobs' views on separatism, currency, and the drawbacks of large political entities. The author notes that Jacobs' ideas challenge conventional wisdom across the political spectrum and suggests that her work deserves more attention in economic discourse. Shorter summary